CAPIS Morning Note – 05/21/26: Stocks Lower On Iran Back and Forth Over Hormuz

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 1.08% at 7432.97 from Tuesday lower by -0.67% at 7353.61. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400. S&P 500 hit […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 1.08% at 7432.97 from Tuesday lower by -0.67% at 7353.61.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400.
  • S&P 500 hit its 17th All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Thursday.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +26.50 (+0.37%) at 7405 on the SP 500 at 6:35 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.615% from 4.635%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks had a seventh up week, with the S&P 500 gaining 16.30% in the last seven weeks. We are now up 6.17% since the peak in January on the S&P 500 as of last Friday’s close.
  • U.S. moves into Week 13 of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is to see if an end to the war can be negotiated.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly – Natural Gas Inventories and Jobless Claims of note.
    • Monthly – Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Index, Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global U.S. Services PMI of note
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Barkin 12:20 p.m. EDT
  • TIPS Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Announcement with the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Lunches with the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Signs and Executive Order at 3:30 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: INTU +0.23, ENS +0.20, URBN +0.16, NVDA +0.12, STEP +0.05, NDSN +0.04, ELF +0.03 of note. 
  • Misses: None of note. 
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings:
    • Parabilis Medicines files IPO prospectus with the SEC; Number of shares offered and projected price range not yet determined.
    • Space X files IPO prospectus with the SEC, number of shares offered and projected price range not yet determined; Applied to list its common stock on the Nasdaq under ticker symbol “SPCX”.
    • BXDC – Full Exercise and Closing of Underwriters Option to Purchase Additional Shares in Initial Public Offering.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • AHR commences public offering of 14.0 million shares of common stock.
    • NBTX files for €75,000,000 ordinary share offering.
    • RKLB: $3Billion Public Offering of common stock.
    • RLAY – Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • ODV announces intention to offer convertible senior notes due 2031 in an aggregate principal amount of $225.0 million in a private placement to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers.
    • SHAZ – Closing of Private Offering of Convertible Senior Notes With Aggregate Gross Proceeds of US$350 Million.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • PPBT: Form F-3..USD 200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

After The Close:

  • Nebius Group (NBIS) and Bloom Energy (BE) announce an agreement to deploy Bloom’s fuel cell technology to help power Nebius’s AI infrastructure build-out.
  • AVEX awarded $15.6 million in contracts by the United States Air Force.
  • Cacvo (CVCO) to build a state-of-the-art home manufacturing facility in El Mirage, Arizona.
  • Choice Hotels (CHH)  announces leadership transition with Patrick Pacious stepping down as President and CEO and Dominic Dragisich, Chief Growth & Strategy Officer, appointed as Interim Chief Executive Officer; Also reaffirms FY26 guidance.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) beats on earnings and revenues, guided higher.
  • Raymond James (RJF) increasing 22% year-over-year and 6% sequentially, driven primarily by higher equity markets and net asset inflows,” said CEO Paul Shoukry.      
  • Intuit (INTU) confirms total workforce reduction of 17%; also receives approval for new $8 billion stock repurchase program and 15% increase to dividend. 
  • Anthropic expects its first operating profit in JunQ, with revenue projected to surge about 130% to $10.9 billion.
  • CMS Moves to Rein In Misused Medicaid Dollars and Reward Quality Care, If finalized, the proposed rule would generate an estimated $775 billion in total savings over 10 years, including $510 billion in federal savings.                  
  • Delay in 10-Q Filings: NRGV 

Last Night Winners:  

  • BNZI +15.8%, AVEX +11.4%, APLD +7.8%, ENS +5.7%, ELF +2.6%.

Last Night’s Losers:

  • ODV -15.1%, INTU -14.4%, NBTX -7%, PPBT -4%, URBN -3.5%, STEP -2.4%. CHH -2%

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • Turtle Beach (TBCH) announces that Andrew Clipsham, Senior Director of Finance, has been appointed interim Chief Financial Officer; Also reaffirms FY26 guidance.
  • FANG discloses that Travis Stice has stepped down as Executive Chairman of the Board and became non-executive Chairman of the Board, as of May 20, 2026 

Dividend Announcements:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Thursday: WD CNH DHT EQX KGC LTC MNR MOS SGI TER VLO WTI AMAT CGNX LFUS LPLA MSFT of note.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Friday:  of note.
  • EQH increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.30 per share from $0.27 per share.
  • GLPI increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.82 per share from $0.78 per share

Buybacks:

  • NVDA ups buyback by $80 billion.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 -22 , NASDAQ 100 -143, Dow Jones  -116. Europe is lower while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.607% from 4.635% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $77,250 lower by -0.38% down $-295 from $77,450 higher by +0.85% up by $651.

Sector Action: 

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials, Industrials and Financials were higher. 
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Energy and Consumer Defensive led the way lower.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:

  • Friday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beat : NTES +2.34, DE +0.85, NIO +0.54, AAP +0.34, WMS +0.12, VIPS +0.12 of note. 
  • Missed :  LSPD of -0.03 of note. 
  • Flat:  None of note.
  • Still to Report: HLNE NMM RL SCVL WMT WSM of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning –NIO ENS INTU NVDA of note.
  • Mixed – None of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – VIPS LSPD ELF of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • Gap Up: INFQ +15.3%, APLD +10.9%, PURR +10.2%, ELF +10.1%, NBIS +8.5%, AVEX +8.5%, NIO +5.2%, ENS +5.2%, ENPH +4.2%, BE +2.8% of note.
  • Gap Down: INTU -13.1%, FIHL -12.4%, BORR -7.6%, BIDU -3.6%, INTC -2.5%, NTES -2.4% of note.
  • of note.

Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history:  None  of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic Race To Go Public.  (WSJ)
  • NY Times Lead Story: 2026 Graduates Face Bleak Jobs Market. (NYT)
  • USA Today: Memorial Day is More Expensive. (USA Today)
  • Bloomberg: Walmart posts steady gains. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks fall as Hormuz Deadlock lifts Oil, Yields. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve Richmond President Barkin speaks at 12:20 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Announcement with the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Lunches with the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Signs an Executive Order at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
      • Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly
      • April Housing Starts are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 1,420,000 from 1,502,000.
      • May Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 15.5 from 26.70.
      • Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 54.50.
      • Global U.S. Services PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 51.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 90% from 67% of Equities are Positive, and 28% from 0% Bonds are Positive. 

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Alliance Global Healthcare Conference
    • Bernstein European Small & Mid-Cap Conference
    • Canaccord Global Metals & Mining Conference
    • Canaccord Quantum Symposium
    • Evercore Biotech Summit
    • GS Canada Oil & Gas Series
    • Jefferies Automotive Aftermarket Conference
    • Keefe Real Estate Finance &Technology Conference
    • Sidoti Year Micro-Cap Conference
    • WFC Private Medtech Symposium
  • Top Analyst, Investor: AMKR BMI CMI DE INAB TENB TWST of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: DD HD HOG SCHW SNBR VZ of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • RJ Chief Credit Officer Symposium
    • Blair Biotech Radiopharmaceutical Event

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: None of note.
Downgrades: None of note.