CAPIS Morning Note – 05/06/26: Hopes For Conclusion For Iran War as China Pushes Iran to Settle

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.81% at 7259.22 from Monday lower by -0.41% at 7200.75. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7200 from 7100. Resistance is now at 7300 from 7200. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7200. S&P 500 hit […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.81% at 7259.22 from Monday lower by -0.41% at 7200.75.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7200 from 7100. Resistance is now at 7300 from 7200. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7200.
  • S&P 500 hit its 13th All-Time Closing High of 2026 Tuesday.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +25.5 higher by +0.35% at 7255 on the SP 500 at 6:25 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.426% from 4.414%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks had a fifth up week, with the S&P 500 gaining 13.52% in the last five weeks. We are now up 3.61% since the peak in January on the S&P 500 as of last Friday’s close.
  • U.S. moves into Week 11 of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is to see if the ceasefire is broken and fighting resumes.
  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly – Crude Oil Inventories and MBA Mortgage Applications of note.
    • Monthly – ADP Employment Report of note.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Musalem at 9:30 a.m. EDT and Goolsbee at 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • Treasury 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • The President and The First Lady participate in a Military Mother’s Day Event at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • The President and The First Lady participate in a Reception for the Trust for the National Mall at 5:30 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats:  JAZZ+1.68, DAVE +1.38, CHRD +1.05, AIZ +1.04, KAI +0.73, NBIX +0.69, DVA +0.54, EA +0.52, PRU +0.52, WOLF +0.52, QRVO +0.48, OXY +0.46, ANDE +0.42, CTVA +0.33, ECG +0.33, TX +0.27, VSEC +0.27, VOYA +0.25, JKHY +0.23, SMCI +0.22, MRCY +0.20 of note.  (>+0.20)
  • Misses: JXN -0.81, UPST -0.42, RARE -0.34, SUPN -0.34, LUMN -0.34, TMDX -0.30, LCID -0.29, PRIM -0.26, QDEL -0.23, PARR -0.21 of note. (<-0.20)
  • Flat: BRX ARE of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: AVLN BWGC PS RIKU SBMT of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: IPOs Ahead This Week: Cerebras Systems said to target up to $4 billion raised in IPO.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • AVTX – Pricing of $375 Million Public Offering
    • BZAI Blaize Announces Public Offering of Common Stock
    • CYTK plans to offer approximately $650 mln of shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering
    • DVLT Closing of $60.0 Million Offering of Common Stock
    • ETR – pricing of common stock offering with a forward component
    • HYPD – Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants
    • INGM announces that Ingram Holdco, an affiliate of Platinum Equity, has commenced a secondary offering of $330 mln of its common stock companies, each optimally positioned to serve their customers and create value for their shareholders.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • FLS – Prices Senior Notes Offering
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • TVTX announces its intention to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $400 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2032 in an underwritten offering.
    • KNX – Pricing of Upsized $1.3 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements:
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • DBGI: Form S-3.. Up to 10,726,009 Shares of Common Stock offered by the Selling Stockholders
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • LIN files mixed securities shelf offering
    • IDYA  files mixed securities shelf offering

News After The Close: 

  • Pfizer (PFE) to develop weight loss drugs. Playing catchup. (WSJ)
  • Flex (FLEX) announces its Board of Directors has unanimously approved moving forward with a plan to spin off its Power and Cloud portfolio from Flex, creating two independent, publicly traded compa
  • Trump places Operation Freedom on hold even as he said Operation Fury was concluded.  
  • NASDAQ (NDAQ) reported numbers for April. (Release)
  • CBOE reported numbers for April. (Release)
  • AMD knocked it out of the park beating earnings and revenues along with great guidance.

After the Close Winners: SMCI +19.3%, FLEX +15.6%, AMD +15.3%, ADPT +12.5%, VECO +12.2%, PTGX +9.7%, HNGE +9.2%, CARL +7.6%, NBIX +7.2%, WTTR +7.2%, LMAT +7.1%, SSRM +7%, IFF +5.6%, JAZZ +5.5% 

After the Close Losers: ATOM -29.2%, PRIM -29%, ATEC -20.4%, KVYO -19%, TMDX -18.9%, HCKT -18.8%, MYGN -14.5%, WOLF -14.3%,UPST -13.6%, ANET -13.4%, LMB -12.4%, JAN -12.4%, MTW -12.2%, NRGV -11.7%, ANGI -11.2% (also names new COO), VTOL -10.6%, LUMN -9.9%, SLRC -9.5%, LDI -9.4%, SLDP -9.2%, OUST -9.1%, TDC -8.9%, PARR -8.6%, AROC -8%, FRSH -7.6%, TEM -7.4%, TSLX -7.1%, MNTN -7%, AZTA -6.7%, TYGO -6.6%, NVTS -6.5%, MQ -6.3%, JXN -5.3%, DAVE -5.2%, LCID -5%.

Buybacks: 

  • AUB has authorized the repurchase of up to $250 mln worth of the Company’s common stock through May 5, 2027.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • GPOR announces that Domenic Dell’Osso, Jr. has been appointed President and Chief Executive Officer, effective May 28, 2026.
  • CF announces that its Board of Directors has elected Andrew T. Scribner as executive vice president and chief financial officer, effective May 26, 2026.
  • KVYO announces that CFO Amanda Whalen will step down.

Dividend Announcements:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Wednesday: EQT WCN ATR MTG HFWA UVSP SAO WFRD of note.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Thursday: DHI FE MATX SIMO KBH TRS DEA of note.
  • ACT increased quarterly dividend to $0.24/share from $0.21/share  

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 +70 , NASDAQ 100 +465, Dow Jones +570 . Europe is higher while Asia is higher as well. Bond yield is at 4.334% from 4.426% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $82,401 higher by 0.97% up $731 from $80,808 higher by +1.02% up $806.

Sector Action: 

  • Daily Positive Sectors: All were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None were lower. 
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:

  • Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beat: ONC +2.27, AMCR +1.00, OSCR +0.97, FRPT +0.83, IMCR +0.52, CVS +0.39, CVE +0.29, CRI +0.26, ITT +0.26, LPX +0.24,OC +0.24, TBLA +0.23, BCO +0.21 of note. (>+0.20%) 
  • Missed: NRG (-0.27), TGTX (0.16), TIC (0.13) of note. (<-0.10)
  • Flat:  None of note.
  • Still to Report: Several of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – ECG VSEC VCYT SOLV SWKS LITE AMD ALAB ANET FLEX BVof note.
  • Mixed – None of none.B
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – PRIM AZTA ATEC BMBL  of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • Gap Up: BLZE +45.9%, of note.
  • Gap Down: WGS -41.7%, of note.

Insider Action: L TENB ECL BUSE see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. FGBI OPCH see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Oil Tumbles on Optimism Over Mideast Diplpomacy. (WSJ)
  • NY Times Lead Story: China’s Bet on Wind Power is Paying Off. (NYT)
  • USA Today:  Facebook Scams cost users $794 million now Meta faces backlash. (USA Today)
  • Bloomberg: Iran Evaluating US Proposal to End War as China Calls For Peace. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks rally as Oil drops under $100 as Iran hopes mount. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve St. Louis President Musalem at 9:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Federal Reserve Chicago President Goolsbee at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • The President and The First Lady participate in a Military Mother’s Day Event at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • The President and The First Lady participate in a Reception for the Trust for the National Mall at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly –
      • Crude Oil Inventores and MBA Mortgage Applications of note
    • Monthly –
      • April ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 62,000 and the estimate is 79,000.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 100% from 88% of Equities are Positive, and 0% from 4% Bonds are Positive. 

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BMO Government, Reserve & Asset Managers Conference
    • Davidson Financial Institutions Conference
    • Jefferies Pharma Services & Technology Conference
    • KeyBanc Industrial Private Company Conference
    • Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference
    • RBC US Banks Fixed Income Investor Symposium
    • WFC Real Estate Securities Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: COST GLW of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: AA GD MGM MOH PEP PM SYK WYNN of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology
    • IBM Think
    • Milken Institute Global Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades:  None of note.
Downgrades: None of note.