CAPIS Morning Note – 02/18/26: Stock Futures Rebound This Morning

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.10% at 6843.22 from Friday higher by 0.05% at 6836.17. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. Year to date the […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.10% at 6843.22 from Friday higher by 0.05% at 6836.17.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is lower by -0.04% from -0.14% on Friday’s close.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +34 (0.50%) at 6894.50 on the SP 500 around 6:25 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.067% from 4.03%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks were lower last week by -1.39% on the S&P 500. So we are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • Bitcoin is still below $70,000 from 2/5.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Monthly – Durable Orders, Housing Starts and Industrial Production.
    • FOMC Minutes are out today as well.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today:  Bowman at 1:00 p.m. EST
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in a Black History Month Reception at 3:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 4:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EST.
  • 3 & 6 Month Treasury Auction at 11:30 a.m. EST.
  • 20 Year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.05 AND <$-0.05)

  • Beats: NANDE +0.41, EQT +0.15, RSG +0.14, EXE +0.13, RBA +0.13, PANW +0.09, PBI +0.08, TOL +0.08, GSHD +0.07 of note. 
  • Misses: HALO -2.30, CZR -1.08, CE -0.24, GKOS -0.08  of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • ARAY: Form S-3.. 7,000,516 Shares of Common Stock.
    • ASBP: Form S-1.. Resale of up to 159,090,906 shares of common stock underlying series a convertible preferred stock.
    • CHRS – Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • CITR: Form S-1.. Up to 8,154,280 Shares of Common Stock.
    • CMND: FORM F-3 – 8,168,676 Common Shares.
    • CMPS Launches Proposed $150.0 Million Public Offering.
    • EPRT Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • GTY – Pricing of Public Offering of 4,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • POR – Pricing of a Public Offering of 9,467,455 Shares of Common Stock.
    • RENX: Form S-3.. 63,052,966 Shares of Common Stock.
    • SMX: Form F-1.. Issuance of up to 30,411,426 Ordinary Shares.
    • SNDK: Form S-3ASR – 7,513,019 Shares.
    • SPRC: Form F-3.. Up to 23,037,624 Ordinary Shares.
    • VEEA: Form S-1.. Up to 15,306,748 Shares of Common Stock.
    • WPC – Public Offering of Common Stock.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • CNX – Pricing of $500 Million of Senior Notes.
    • HHH – Closes Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement:
    • IMUX – Closing of Oversubscribed Private Placement Financing.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  •  None of note.Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • COHU: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • NVT: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • ZJK: FORM F-3 – $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

News After The Close:

  • 13Fs are now being filed of note.
    • Berkshire Hathaway: Disclosed a new position in The New York Times (NYT) and increased its stake in Chubb (CB) and Domino’s Pizza (DPZ).
    • AllianceBernstein: Opened a massive $1.1 billion position in NYM and an $864 million position in CORB.
    • Maverick Capital: Added large stakes in Alphabet (GOOGL), Applied Materials (AMAT), Boston Scientific (BSX), and Visa (V).
    • Pinnacle Financial Partners: Filed a 13F reflecting its merger with Synovus, detailing a combined $8.98 billion portfolio
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat on earnings and revenues but guided earnings lower for Q3 but revenues higher in the same quarter.
  • Leonardo DRS (DRS) was awarded multiple contracts for the Missile Defense Agency Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract with a ceiling of $151 billion.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) announces a multiyear, multigenerational strategic partnership with Meta (META) spanning on-premises, cloud and AI infrastructure.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • QUAD announced that Dave Honan has been promoted to President in addition to his current role as Chief Operating Officer.
  • WRLD announced that J. Tobin Turner has been appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective February 17, 2026.

Buybacks:

  • SFNC authorizes new $175 million stock repurchase program.
  • WST authorizes new $1 billion share repurchase program.
  • VYX increases share repurchase authorization to $300 million.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: COP AFL MPC ED CTSH GIB WMG ARMK FCFS POWI MKTX HRI LSTR BSM ENR of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: AMAT COF CNP WWD TPG VRSN LFUS BOKF MTRN DHT AEBI SBSI of note.
  • SUI increases quarterly cash dividend $0.08 per share to $1.12 per share from $1.04 per share
  • ADI increases its quarterly dividend by 11% to $1.10 per share

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 +23 , NASDAQ 100 +113 Dow Jones +80. Europe is higher while Asia is higher ex Shanghai. Bond yield is at 4.067% from 4.03% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $67.485 lower by -0.29% down by $203 from $67,772 lower by -0.64% down by $436.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors:   Real Estate, Financials, Industrials, Healthcare and Technology were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Materials, Consumer Defensive, Energy and Communication Services were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:

  • Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: DINO +0.75, CSTM +0.45, GRMN +0.39, VRSK +0.22, MCO +0.21, ADI +0.15, PODD +0.09, CRL +0.05 of note.
  • Missed: CNK-0.10,  COCO -0.04 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – PANW of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: TCMD +23.1%, GLBE +21.4%, RSI +20.1%, PBI +8.6%, GSHD +8.6%, WTTR +8.1%, SSRM +7.9%, FDP +6.9%, CE +6.7%, CSTM +6.6%, USNA +6.5%, SMX +6.4%, AMRZ +5.7%, RBA +5.5%, CDNS +5.2%, ANDE +4.6%, HL +4.3%, NYT +3.3%, ATRC +3.2%, OVV +3.1%, STLD +3.1%, NNE +3%, WDC +2.5%, AGI +2.4%, CZR +2.4%, OGI +2.4%, HQY +2%, TFII +2%, IAG +2% of note.
  • GapDown: SMWB -20.3%, ACLS -13.3%, FVRR -12.4%, APLD -8%, LZB -8%, QUAD -7.6%, CMPS -7.5%, MKSI -7.5%, PANW -6.7%, CAMT -4.5%, ICL -4%, ANET -3%, POR -3%, HUN -2.8%, WPC -2.6%, GNK -2.4%, SNDK -2.3%, ITRG -2.3%, OGE -2.3%of note.

Insider Action: MSCI DIS see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. MDU JYNT GTE see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Woke AI Feud Escalates Between Pentagon and Anthropic. (WSJ)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks Rise as AI Jitters Ease.  Bloomberg
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Trading of Japanese Bonds Roars Back To Life. (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Lead: Warner Brothers Reopens Bidding by Paramount. (Bloomberg)
  • Thoughtful Money: Housing Market Is Dead. (Podcast)
  • Mortgage Applications rose +2.8%. released at 7:00 a.m. EST.

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: 2
    • Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks at 1:00 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in a Black History Month Reception at 3:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 4:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EST.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • MBA Mortgage Applications were out at 7:00 a.m. EST.
    •  Monthly
      • December Durable Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to come in at -2.6% from 5.30%.
      • December Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST as well and expected to come in at 1,320,00o with no prior data.
      • January Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and expected to stay at 0.4%.
      • FOMC Meeting Minutes from the January Meeting are due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  39% from 43% of Equities are Positive, and 88% from 96% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Barclay’s Industrial Select Conference
    • Citi Global Industrial Tech and Mobility Conference
    • Goldman Sachs India New Age Tech Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor:  COYA RDWR SON VMET of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings:  PURE of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • CAGNY
    • NAHB International Builders’ Show

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: BIOA ICLR ZIM of note.
  • Downgrades: KNF of note.