CAPIS Morning Note – 10/10/25: Earnings Start Next Week, Stocks Mixed

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.28% at 6735.11 from Wednesday higher by 0.58% at 6753.72. S&P 500 hit its 31st All-Time Closing High of 2025 on Wednesday with the prior high hit on 10/03. Futures are lower this morning by -0.50 (-0.01%) at 6779.50 on the S&P 500 around […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.28% at 6735.11 from Wednesday higher by 0.58% at 6753.72.
  • S&P 500 hit its 31st All-Time Closing High of 2025 on Wednesday with the prior high hit on 10/03.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -0.50 (-0.01%) at 6779.50 on the S&P 500 around 6:25 a.m. EDT.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 14.51% from 14.83% from Wednesday’s close.

Executive Summary:

  • Looks like the government shutdown is going to roll into next week. BLS is trying to bring back the gang to produce a CPI number for September.

Key Events of Note Today:  

  • Economic news of note today includes  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Treasury Budget along with the Baker Hughes Rig Count.
  • President Trump head to Walter Reed today and then makes announcement at 5:00 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: APOG +0.13, APLD +0.10, LEVI +0.03 of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises: 

  • IPOs For The Week: ALH, CCHH, GIW, OWLS, PARK, PXED of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
    • Maplight Therapeutics (MPLT) files IPO prospectus with SEC for 14.75 million share IPO with an expected price of $17.00 per share.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • LEU: Form S-1.. Up to 24,100,000 Shares of Common Stock
    • OCTO: Form S-3.. 189,587,329 Shares of Common Stock
    • QUBT: Form S-3ASR . 37,183,937 Shares of Common Stock
    • TISI: FORM S-3 – 1,453,260 SHARES OF COMMON STOCK
    • VNRX – Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock and Common Stock Warrants
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • DAC – Pricing of Senior Notes Offering
    • UNIT – Pricing of $250 Million Fiber Securitization Notes Offering
  • Convertibles Filed:
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • TTRX files for 7,000,000 share common stock offering by selling shareholders
    • ORBS files for 189,587,329 share common stock offering by selling shareholders
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • TLRY: Form S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf

News After The Close: 

  • Leonardo DRS (DRS) wins first place in a Department of Defense counter drone competition by demonstrating an advanced electronic warfare system that can be integrated into the company’s range of proven and fielded counter-UAS (C-UAS) capabilities.
  • Salesforce (CRM) signs definitive agreement to acquire Apromore
  • Granite Construction (GVA) secures $24 mln contract from San Bernardino County to replace aging bridges along Route 66
  • Coinbase (COIN) and Mastercard (MA) ticking higher on report they have held advanced talks to acquire stablecoin startup BVNK for around $2 bln.
  • BLS has recalled staff to ready September CPI report by month’s end. (Bloomberg)
  •  10-K Delays , 10-Q Delays: None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • CMPO appoints Mary Holt as Chief Financial Officer; effective the day immediately following the filing of the Company’s Q3 2025 Quarterly Report. 
  • GPK announces CFO Stephen R. Scherger to resign, effective November 7, 2025; Charles D. Lischer will be interim CFO on effective date.
  • AMCR appoints Stephen Scherger as CFO, effective Nov 10.
  • SHOP announces appointment of Jessica Hertz as the Chief Operating Officer, effective October 9, 2025.

Buybacks:

  • ESTC announces $500 mln share repurchase program 

Dividends Announcements or News: 

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: AXP T VZ ACN TD GD NRVL DRI YMM TOL IEX HMY LNC WPP SAIC AAP BRC AEO BKU UVV PMT of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Monday of note: of note.

Stocks Moving Up & Down Yesterday: 

  • Gap Up:   ORBS +27.4%, APLD +14.2%,  ESTC +9.1%, APOG +5.2%, VIR +2.2%
  • Gap Down:  KIDS -14.3%, USNA -11.3%, VG -10.3%, CLOV -8.6%, LEVI -7.7%, PKE -5.9%,  TTRX -5.7%, NRIX -5.2%, TLRY -3.8%

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 +5  NASDAQ 100 +17.50  Dow Jones +43  Europe is mixed and Asia is mixed as well. Bond yield is at 4.109% from 4.12% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $121,603 from $122,790 up 0.46%.

Sector Action: 
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive led the way higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower.
  • One Month Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Energy, Consumer Cyclicals, and Utilities of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Materials, Energy, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals, Materials and Industrials of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Technology, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Energy of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None
  • Monday Before The Open:  

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • GapUp: ORBS +29.9%, APLD +23.6%, SWKH +19.8%, ESTC +10.4%, AMCR +4.7%, BFLY +2.7%, SMR +2.6%, DRS +2.4%, BN +2.2%, SOC +2% of note.
  • Gap Down:  VG -17.8%, USNA -13%, TTRX -9%, KIDS -8.7%, LEVI -7.1%, CLOV -6.4%, TLRY -4.8%, NRIX -3.4%, MOS -2.8%, GPK -2.7% of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  No stock of note sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. There was a nice buy from FDS but short interest did not cooperate.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. 

  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Bessent’s Big Gamble on Argentina. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Market Wrap: US Stocks drift amid valuation concerns. (Bloomberg)
  • New York Federal Reserve President John Williams is interviewed in The New York Times. (NYT)
  • Barron’s + PLTR KTOS AVAV NFLX SPOT DIS and mixed on RACE.

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical: 

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 9:45 a.m. EDT.
    • Federal Reserve St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Releases:
    • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Treasury Budget is due out at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump:
    • President Trump is off to Walter Reed at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Annual Physical? Back at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
    • The First Lady makes announcement at 11:00 a..m. EDT.
    • President Trump makes announcement at 5:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes:

SWK Holdings (SWKH) to be acquired by Runway Growth Finance.

Moving Average Table: 

Meeting & Conferences of Note: 

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
    • Sidoti Small Cap Conference
    • William Blair Tech Innovators Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: BDRX
  • Shareholder Meetings: ALTS, VTAK 
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

    • Upgrades: CNR FORM SYF of note.
    • Downgrades: ALLO DOCS PLRX of note.