Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 0.13%. Wednesday lower by -2.24% at 5275.70. Futures are lower this morning by -54 (-1.01%) at 5259 around 7:00 a.m. EDT. The range is now 900 points on the S&P 500 cash for the year, 5200 to 6100. Year to date the S&P 500 is down -10.18% from -10.30% Thursday’s close.
Executive Summary: Back at it after a long weekend and more Tariff tough talk driving early weakness from both the U.S. and China. Big earnings week ahead as well.
Breaking News: Pope Francis died overnight. (Bloomberg)
Key Events of Note Today:
- Leading Indicators out today at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- 3 & 6 Month Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: NFLX +0.02 of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Flat: of note.
- IPOs For The Week: AIRO, CHA, HXHX, OMSE, PHOE
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced: None of note.
- AREB: Form S-1.. 4,760,316 Shares of Common Stock.
- RFL: Form S-3.. $25,000,000 Class B Common Stock
- Notes Priced: None of note.
- Notes Files: None of note.
- Convertibles Filed: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ACFG files $1.0 bln mixed shelf securities offering.
- ESPR: Form S-3.. $400,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- TCBX: Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- ONDS: Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
News After The Close:
- Netflix (NFLX) beat estimated by $0.94 and gave upside guidance for Q2 and reaffirmed guidance for 2025.
- Netflix Executive Reed Hasting to transition to Chairman and a non-executive position.
- Apollo Global Management (APO) Chairman Jay Clayton to resign as of today and will become the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York. Marc Rowan the current CEO will become Chairman as well.
- Granite Construction (GVA) awarded about an $80 million contract by the Texas Department of Transportation to upgrade a section of Farm to Market 548 (FM 548) near Forney, TX.
- Ameresco (AMRC) announces €303.4 million EPC Contracts for three solar parks located in the southwestern region of Romania.
- President Trump says that a deal between U.S. Steel (X) and Nippon Steel may be part of tariff negotiations with Japan, but has doubts, (Reuters)
- Barron’s + on AJG BRO RYAN and mixed on AAPL AMZN.
- 10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), (Delayed) None of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- SG COO Rossann Williams to depart, effective immediately.
Buybacks:
- PCRX authorizes up to an aggregate of $300 mln for share repurchases.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: BK PG CAT ZTS AMZA QYLD RYLD XYLD
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: None of note.
Stocks Moving Up & Down Yesterday:
- Gap Up: APPF +5%, NFLX +2.4% of note.
- Gap Down: MTX -1.8% of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 6:30 a.m. EDT)
Futures S&P 500 -56, NASDAQ -212, Dow Jones -365, Russell 2000 -17. Europe is higher ex Germany and Asia is higher ex Japan. Bonds are at 4.356% from 4.30% Thursday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $87,341 from $84,433 higher by $2745 at +3.24%.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Technology and Healthcare of note.
- One Month Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.
- Three Month Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Defensive and Financials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Materials of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Monday After the Close:
- Tuesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Flat: None of note
- Beats: CMA +0.09, BOH +0.08 of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: MTX of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D is beginning to improve.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: OPRX +6.5%, DFS +6.2%, COF +3.8%, NFLX +3.2%, SNY +2.5% of note.
- Gap Down: SMA -5.7%, FFIN -5.1%, SYNA -4.2%, OLN -3.3%, INDB -3.3%, VCSA -3.1%, MTX -2.6%, LC -2.5%, VALN -2.5% of note.
Insider Action: FLWS sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. TTSH sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Bloomberg: Trump’s Push Against Powell Adds Doubts To U.S.’s Haven Status. (Bloomberg)
- In an interview, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says preemptive tariff purchasing may cause an “artificially high” level of economic activity, but activity could drop off by the summer. (CBS)
- White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett says President Trump is studying whether he can fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. (Reuters)
- President Trump expects China trade deal within in 3-4 weeks, but direct talks are at a standoff. (Politico)
- China warned nations not to agree to trade deal with US that could hurt China. (Bloomberg)
- U.S. offering to ease sanctions on Russia in exchange for peace deal. (Bloomberg)
- China state funds cut off investments in U.S. private equity firms. (FT)
- Huawei preparing new AI chip for mass shipment to compete with NVDA. (Reuters)
- Five Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
Bolded Royal Blue means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Economic Releases:
- March Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to -0.4% from -0.30%.
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.
- There are no Fed speakers today.
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- Participates with the First Lady in the Annual White House Easter Egg Roll at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
- None of note.
Moving Average Table: Moves from 33% to 23% from last week. TLT remains weak.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Shareholder Meetings: CWD, HSDT, PHGE, RNAZ
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: BMY, MIGI, VENU
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- AI Week
- Healing Lyme Summit
- NY Auto Show
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: BANR ECL FIS IOSP NCLH
- Downgrades: CRM
- Morgan Stanley notes Trump Tariffs create a Covid Level of uncertainty to stocks. Expect a range of 5000 to 5,500 short term.
