Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday lower by -1.57% at 4982.77. Monday lower by -0.23% at 5062.25. Futures are lower this morning by -80 (-1.60%) at 4939.75 around 7:10 a.m. EDT. The range is 1200 points on the S&P 500 for the year, 4900 to 6100, a drop of 200 points since Tuesday. Thought for the upcoming week: Monday and Tuesday were extremely volatile days as the high was 5246.57 with the low at 4835.04 a daily range of 8.11% on Monday and Tuesday saw a high of 5267.47 and a low of 4910.42 a daily range of 7.05%.
Article of Note: “The Republicans Who Forgot Their Economics” by Barton Swaim.
Chart of the Day: Shorts are Making Money This Week as 1s (Short Squeezes) and 3s (Shorts Correct) are lower:
Breaking News: Good interview with Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on CNBC on markets and Robinhood’s handling of the volatility.
Key Events of Note Today:
- FOMC Minutes are out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
- 10-year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
- Only one thing matters: Tariff negotiations and the tone of the negotiations.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: None of note.
- Misses: CALM -0.34 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: ALEH, FATN, LAWR, MB, OMSE, PHOE, RYET
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced:
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- PAVM: Form S-3.. 3,331,084 Shares of Common Stock
- SMTK: Form S-1.. 6,402,818 Shares of Common Stock
- Notes Priced: PAYX Pricing of its Senior Notes
- Notes Files:
- Convertibles Filed:
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Private Placements:
- LCID announces closing of private offering of $1.1 billion of convertible senior Notes Due 2030 and repurchase of ~$1B principal of existing 1.25% convertible notes due in 2026.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- HST mixed securities shelf offering.
- CDP files mixed securities shelf offering.
News After The Close:
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has surpassed $1.5 bln in cumulative sales through Google Cloud Marketplace.
- Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) missed crazy estimates $10.72 from $3.00 a year ago by $-0.34 as well as revenues up 101.6%. No problem here.
- KKR higher on report its nearing deal to acquire Karo Healthcare. (Bloomberg)
- President Trump signs Executive Order to expand use of coal. (Release)
- 10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), (Delayed) of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- NMRK promotes Luis Alvarado to COO.
- VSCO announces series of leadership appointments, including Anne Stephenson named as President.
- INDI CFO Kanwardev Raja Singh Bal resigns.
Buybacks
- UNF announces $100 million share repurchase authorization.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: MA BBVA BEKE HTHT GAP GNTX IDCC KRG MSM KAI BRC WB
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: ORCL CRM T VZ ACN INTU GIS DRI ZTO UDR SFD TIMB LNC.
- PG increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.0568/share from $1.0065/share
Stocks Moving Up & Down Yesterday:
Gap Up: BTU +23.6%, AEHR +7.7%, RDW +6.1%, UNF +4.9%, CNR +4.7%, ANNX +3.9%, SATL +3.6%, ARLP +3.5%, NTHI +2.1% of note.
Gap Down: CALM -4.1% of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -85, NASDAQ -257, Dow Jones -690, Russell 2000 -46. Europe and Asia are lower. Bonds are at 4.46% from 4.22% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $76,218 from $79,875 lower by $-363 at -0.41%.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services and Technology of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Consumer Cyclical of note.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.
- Six Month Winners: None of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Financials, Communication Services and Real Estate of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Tuesday After the Close: CALM of note
- Wednesday Before The Open: NEOG DAL of note
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Flat: None of note
- Beats: NEOG +0.12, DAL +0.08, SMPL +0.06 of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Still to Report:
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: NEOG of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D made a new low. Awful.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: BTU +19.9%, SATL +7.9%, NTHI +6.7%, CDP +6%, NRIX +4.6%, LOT +4.3%, RDW +2.5%, BKD +2.1%, CNX +2% of note.
- Gap Down: CALM -4.8%, OS -4.5%, HST -4.3%, ANNX -3.9%, KRMN -2.4%, NMRK -2.2% of note.
Insider Action: GMS PANL see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. GTE APO See Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Bloomberg: Stock Tumble As China Hits Back. (Bloomberg)
- China hit back with 84% tariffs on U.S. imports into China after the U.S. took tariffs over 100%.
- MBA Mortgage Applications rose 20% as rates fell in the last week.
- Market Wrap: U.S. Futures, Treasuries Slump as China Retailiates. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks making the biggest moves: WMT TGT AAPL PFE LLY F. (CNBC)
- Five Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
Bolded Royal Blue means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Economic Releases:
- Weekly Crude Oil Inventories is due out at 10:30 p.m. EDT.
- MBA Mortgage Applications were out at 7:00 a.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.
- Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- President Trump signs Executive Orders at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
Moving Average Table: Remains at 0%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note: (Not updated today, back tomorrow)
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- Sellside Conferences:
- BMO CAPP Energy Symposium
- Bradesco Brazil Investment Forum
- Deutsche Bank’s Private FinTech Conference
- Jefferies Fusion Conference
- Jefferies LatAm Summit
- Jones Healthcare and Technology Innovation Conference
- Needham Healthcare Conference
- Stifel Targeted Oncology Forum
- Wells Fargo Private MedTech Symposium
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: ABOS, AMPS, FTEL, ICU, LEN, JNJ, PMN, PRAX, TGTX
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: AMC, CMRE, GRO, NVA, SKYH, WMT
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- American Academy of Neurology Meeting
- CyberArk IMPACT
- Google Cloud Next
- Iceberg Summit
- LD Micro Conference
- NAB Show
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: CEG TDG GE SIRI
- Downgrades: FI
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