CAPIS Morning Note – 4/4/25: Chinese Water Torture As Ups Tariffs on U.S. By 34%, Futures Under Water

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -4.84% at 5396.52 from Wednesday higher by 0.67% at 5670.97. Futures are lower this morning by -159 (-2.93%) at 5273 around 7:05 a.m. EDT. The range is 800 points on the S&P 500 for the year, 5300 to 6100 a drop of 200 […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -4.84% at 5396.52 from Wednesday higher by 0.67% at 5670.97. Futures are lower this morning by -159 (-2.93%) at 5273 around 7:05 a.m. EDT. The range is 800 points on the S&P 500 for the year, 5300 to 6100 a drop of 200 points. Thought for the upcoming week: Ground Hog Day as another fugly day. Someone is going to “bend the knee” sooner than later in this global trade game of chicken.

ChatGPT Fact of the Day: The U.S. imports $143.50 billion worth of goods to China. This makes China the third largest recipient of U.S. goods behind Canada and Mexico.

Breaking News: Fed Funds now projecting that there will be 5 Rate Cuts this Year!! (CNBC). Payrolls rise to 228,000. (CNBC)

Key Events of Note Today:

Jobs Friday and Baker Hughes Rig Count due out see Economic section.
Only one thing matters, Tariff Talk.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

Beats: GES +0.11, SLP +0.05 of note.
Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week: BGIN, ENGS, OMSE, SMA, UYSC, WXM
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced:
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- NMTC Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock
Notes Priced:
Notes Files:
Convertibles Filed:
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Private Placements:
Selling Shareholders of note:
- GCL files for 83,456,793 ordinary shares offering; relates to warrants.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ES: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering

News After The Close:

CACI awarded $54 mln task order to support the US Army with advanced ground sensors.
Gamestop (GME) jumps by over +3% after Chairman and CEO Ryan Cohen purchases 500,000 shares.
CBOE reports trading volume for March.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) announces March production updates; produces 533 Bitcoin, up 13% mo/mo and 25% yr/yr.
President Trump notes that China could see tariff relief if it approves of a TikTok deal. (Reuters)
FIVN announces 4% workforce reduction; expects Q1 results to be in-line with or better than initial guidance for revs and EPS.
AppLovin (APP) wants in on TickTok bid.
10K or Qs Filings/Delays – (Filed), FRST (Delayed) of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

TBBK CFO Paul Frenkiel retired on March 28; serving as a consultant through the year; current Chief Accounting Officer Martin Egan named Interim CFO .
GES appoints Alberto Toni as CFO, effective following the filing of the company’s next quarterly report expected around mid-June.
FELE appoints current CFO of the Company’s Water Systems Segment Russell Fleeger as interim CFO.

Buybacks

Dividends Announcements or News:

Stocks Ex Div Today: JPM AXP BMY ROP SYY NTAP IHG MORN RTO RGKD TIMB CHX HASI TWO IGIC HLIO
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: EIX MKC ERIE DGX YMM OGE UTZ SPNS SCS PFBC
GBX increases quarterly cash dividend 7% to $0.32/share from $0.30/share.

Stocks Moving After The Close:

Gap Up: SGMO +29.2%, RCEL +4.5%, GME +4.1% of note.

Gap Down: TBBK -2.1%, GCL -2% of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:25 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -154, NASDAQ -579, Dow Jones -1174, Russell 2000 -81.60. Europe and Asia are lower. Bonds are at 3.90% from 4.07% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $82,423 from $83,105 higher by $516 at +0.60%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive was the only winner.
Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials and Financials led the way lower.
One Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
Three Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Healthcare, Utilities and Financials of note.
Six Month Winners: Financials, Energy, Consumer Defensive, Communication Services and Utilities of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Financials, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate and Technology of note.
Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Healthcare, Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Friday After the Close: None of note

Monday Before The Open: None of note

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

Flat: None of note
Beats: None of note.
Misses: None of note.
Still to Report:

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D made a new low. Awful.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up: SGMO +28.8%, GBX +14.6%, RCEL +4%, PERI +2.7% of note.

Gap Down: Too many of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

Bloomberg: China Hits Back At Trump Tariffs. (Bloomberg)
China to impose 34% tariffs on U.S. Goods into China starting April 10th.
Oil sinks to a 4 year low. (Bloomberg)
Hedge funds frazzled by tariff chaos. (Bloomberg)
Five Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

Bolded Royal Blue means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical:

Economic Releases:
- March Nonfarm Payroll is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 145,000 from 130,000.
- The March Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 4.1%.
- Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 11:25 a.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaks at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 12:45 p.m. EDT.

President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- President Trump is playing golf while the stock market burns today. Fore!
- President Trump attends a MAGA Candlelight Dinner at Mar-a-Lago at 7:30 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Average Table: Moves from 40% to 0%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note: (Not updated today, back tomorrow)

- Sellside Conferences:
  - RBC Capital Ophthalmology Conference

- Shareholder Meetings: ANEB
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: DOCN
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- Industry Meetings or Events:
  - American Academy of Neurology Annual Meeting
  - ADAA Conference
  - Capital Link Cyprus Business Forum
  - International Conference on Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s Diseases
  - ISC West

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

- - - Upgrades: FLG EMN COHR BKNG
    - Downgrades: