CAPIS Morning Note – 2/18/25: Stocks Start The Week Higher

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.01% at 6114.63. Thursday higher by 1.04% at 6157 The overnight high was hit at 6157 at 2:05 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6137 at 6:35 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 20 points. The current price is higher […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.01% at 6114.63. Thursday higher by 1.04% at 6157 The overnight high was hit at 6157 at 2:05 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6137 at 6:35 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 20 points. The current price is higher at 6:45 a.m by +0.33% at 6151.75 up +19.75 points.

Executive Summary: Last week’s question was, “Can the S&P 500 clear 6100 this week?” Well, it did on Thursday and held Friday. A new high for the year! Rather impressive despite the churn since December 6th.

Articles of Note:“Illiberalism Is Suffocating Europe.” by Gerard Baker. (WSJ.com)

*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.

Key Events of Note Today:

- Couple economic indicators, Empire State Manufacturing and NASB Housing Market Index.

Pure Cycle (PCT) saw Stanley Drukenmiller take a 13-F stake and the stock is up 12.77%. This name was squeezed as Short Intensity is high at 97%.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close

Beats: None of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week: BTAI, GSAT, KORU, NEXN, NIVF, RIME, SCCO,
TCBP
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- ALE: Form S-3ASR.. 2,437,896 Shares of Common Stock.
- BNAI: Form S-1.. Shares of Common Stock.
- EFSH: Form S-1.. 480,231,190 Shares of Common Stock.
- WINT: Form S-1.. Up to 40,000,000 Shares of Common Stock
Notes Priced: ABBV: Form S-3ASR – Debt Securities
Direct Offering: None of note.
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
- NVVE: Form S-3.. Up to 341,148 Shares of Common Stock by Selling Stockholder
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- AEP files for $7.5 bln mixed securities shelf offering.
- ROKU files mixed securities shelf offering.
- TXN files mixed securities shelf offering
- TELO files for $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering.
- AN files mixed securities shelf offering.
- ABLV: Form F-3.. US$200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- APVO: FORM S-3 – $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
- HOVR: Form S-3.. $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf
- NAOV: Form S-1 Mixed Shelf.
- RYVL: Form S-1.. $20,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- XBP: Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf
PIPE:
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:

Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:

Movers Up: ENTA (7.15 +45.92%), ANAB (20.82 +42.8%), CRSP (49.63 +24.98%), CVS (65.63 +21.51%), NSP (87.08 +25.11%), PBI (10.56 +22.45%), DNOW (17.09 +21.43%), PZZA (49.01 +28.8%), IRBT (9.65 +25.81%), BABA (124.38 +20.16%), GDS (39.17 +43.56%), RBBN (5.12 +25.06%), INTC (23.64 +23.74%), LSCC (63.93 +19.96%), CHEF (65.29 +20.44%), NUS (7.51 +19.21%) of note.
Movers Down: STAA (15.34 -30.11%), BIO (276.07 -19.31%), TROX (7.79 -21.44%), CMCO (20.44 -40.32%), KTOS (26.95 -16.97%), SERV (13.61 -30.1%), HBI (5.95 -21.09%), CBRL (47.51 -17.37%), SMTC (36.9 -32.31%), TTD (80.45 -31.41%), TDC (24.7 -19.95%), PEGA (84.58 -19.81%), BL (52.03 -19.5%), SPSC (147.22 -17.44%), FIS (68.92 -17.38%), PBF (23.09 -17%), COTY (5.59 -17.38%) of note.

News After The Close:

NPK receives three awards totaling $71.2M in support of ammunition in Ukraine through 2025 and 2026.
OpenAI rejects Elon Musk’s acquisition offer. (CNBC)
Discover Financial (DFS) reports January credit card charge-off and delinquency statistics. (Release)
According to FactSet, earnings growth stands at 16.9%, which is the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate since Q4 2021.
Hedge Funds have begun to file 13 Fs.
10K or Qs Delays – none of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

SEE CEO Patrick Kivits steps down; Dustin Semach has been named CEO, effective immediately; co reaffirms prior guidance for FY24.
T names CEO John Stankey to additional role of Board Chair.

Buybacks:

Dividends Announcements or News:

- - Stocks Ex Div Today: JNJ UPS SO APO COF CTSH PRU F ROK EQT XYL ADM UI JBL CSL RGA BG R MTG MC LSTR HRI SWX PECO VCTR KMPR BKH AB MUR FINN PATK HEES BSM HIW AWR PSMT ATKR PWPSPB WMK DHT CABO UMH NRP CNOB
  - Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: AFL ITUB MPC OWL ED WHGLY MKTX POWL BTU
HOG increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.18/share from $0.1725/share.
VMC increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.49/share from $0.46/share.
AQN names Brian Chin as Interim CFO.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +20, NASDAQ +79.50, Dow Jones+61 and Russell 2000 +2.72. Europe is mixed with Asia mixed as well. Bonds are at 4.513% from 4.53% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $95,907 from $96,648 lower by $31 by -0.03%. Additional Comments:

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: All were higher led by Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical and Financials.
Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Healthcare, Materials and Utilities of note.
One Month Winners: All except for Energy of note.
Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Technology, Utilities and Industrials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Financials, Healthcare and Utiltities of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Tuesday After the Close: None of note.

Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: BIDU+4.81, VC +2.48, WGS +0.46, CEG +0.28, VMI +0.21, WAY +0.15, ALLE +0.11, TPH +0.08, GPC +0.06, ETR +0.02, MDT +0.02, NEO +0.01, SPNS +0.01 of note.
Flat: BLKB of note.
Misses: FLR -0.30, DFIN -0.09, CC -0.01 of note.
Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: WGS of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: BLKB FLR VC of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support making new lows and now is off those lows.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up: IPHA +32.5%, WGS +24.4%, PCT +13.9%, STZ +8.4%, NE +6.2%, PONY +4.8%, SDRL +4.4%, SPIR +4%, MATW +3.6%, VG +3.3%, RCUS +3.1%, SEG +2.9%, ZK +2.5%, LUV +2.4%, FTV +2.1%, TNC +2% of note.
Gap Down: TPH -4.5%, DVAX -3.2%, SARO -2.9%, CAG -2.5%, HUN -2.5%, AKR -2.3%, SPNS -2.3%, WULF -2.1%, JELD -2%, of note.

Insider Action: BZH ORCL see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. AMCR sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump and Putin Teams Meet in Saudi Arabia with Europe Sidelined. (Bloomberg)
Market Wrap: US Stock Futures rise on U.S. and Russia talks. (Bloomberg)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: LUV MDT SNOW BBWI. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before the Market Opens. (CNBC)
Delta (DAL) Plane crashes at Toronto airport, 15 injured but most walk away. (CNBC)
Musk debuts Grok-3 as rival to AI Chatbot. (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Odd Lots: How Derivatives swallowed the entire market. (Podcast)

Economic:

February Empire State Manufacturing is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to improve to -2 from -12.60.
February NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to stay at 47.

Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)

President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- President Trump signs Executive Orders at 4:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly to speak at 10:20 a.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Average Table: Rises to 77% from 63%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

- Sellside Conferences:
  - Citi Global Industrial Tech and Mobility Conference
  - Citi Investment Research

- Shareholder Meetings: COF, DFS, ZCAR
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: CRS, FOUR, GRRR, J
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: RCUS: Data Presentation on Casdatifan/AB521
- Industry Meetings or Events:
  - CAGNY Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

- - Upgrades: GT EIX CSCO BKNG WYNN TPR GILD EC AVNT
  - Downgrades: LESL