Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 1.04%. Wednesday lower by -0.27% at 6051.97. The overnight high was hit at 6146.50 at 2:10 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6121.25 at 6:25 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 25 points. The current price is lower at 7:00 a.m by -0.21% at 6122.50 down -13 points.
Executive Summary: Stocks bounced off Friday’s weakness on Monday which is 2025 pattern. Can the S&P 500 clear 6100 this week? Well, it did on Thursday. A new high for the year! Rather impressive despite the churn since December 6th.
Articles of Note: “Peace Through Weakness In Ukraine?” by The Editorial Board.
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- Several economic data points are due out today led by Retail Sales at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
Crocs (CROX) beat estimates by $0.03, earning $0.94. The stock was higher by 23.89% yesterday. This name was squeezed as Short Intensity is high at 97%.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: COIN+2.57, WYNN +1.15, KNSL +0.28, RSG +0.18, ROKU +0.17, ABNB +0.15, MSI +0.15, DVA +0.11, AMAT +0.10 of note. (>+0.10)
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: DKNG -0.12, PCOR -0.11, GDDY -0.08, DXCM -0.05, TWLO -0.03, HL -0.01 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: BTAI, GSAT, KORU, NEXN, NIVF, RIME, SCCO,
TCBP - New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- BIRK files ordinary shares offering.
- Notes Priced:
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- CMI files mixed shelf securities offering.
- KHC files mixed shelf securities offering.
- EXC files $12.575 bln mixed shelf securities offering.
- VRTX files mixed shelf securities offering.
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:
- Movers Up: NUS +23.1%, ABNB +14.6%, PCOR +11.9%, ROKU +11.6%, DKNG +7%, YELP +3.1% of note.
- Movers Down: INFA -32.7%, AENT -13.1%, EGAN -12.1%, ISSC -11.1%, CLW -10.7% TWLO -6%, PANW -5%, AMAT -4.6% of note.
News After The Close:
- Lending Club (LC) secures investment grade rating from fitch on $100 million structured loan certificates transaction with a top global insurance company.
- Clearwater Paper (CLW) eliminating more than 10% of all positions across the company.
- Gamestop (GME) to invest in Bitcoin. (CNBC)
- Hedge Funds have begun to file 13 Fs.
- Index Changes:
- KAI to join S&P 600 replacing NARI which is being bought by Stryker (SYK).
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- CAE appoints Calin Rovinescu as Chair of the Board.
- VRSN CFO George E. Kilguss III to retire effective May 31, 2025.
- ORRF promotes Adam Metz to COO, effective immediately.
- CPRI announced the promotion of Philippa Newman to Chief Brand and Product Officer, effective immediately
Buybacks:
- TNC authorized a new share repurchase program of up to 2,000,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, effective February 11, 2025.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: LLY CVX SHEL SIEGY AMGN SCHW KKR SBUX COP DUK CTAS MMM EMR EQNR TFC COR KR MSCI OTIS WEC HSY SW CHD CMS TER GEN BAH JEF CF DOC TECH SJM AIT WAL IVZ AGCO OSK MSA REYN SIGI FCFS MGY IBOC KGS MMS SBRA ALE.
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow:
- FISI increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.31/share from $0.30/share.
- KRT increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.45/share from $0.40/share.
- RLI increases quarterly cash dividend 3.4% to $0.15/share.
- KNX increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.18/share from $0.16/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -9.50, NASDAQ -36.75, Dow Jones -118 and Russell 2000 -2.38. Europe is mixed with Asia mixed as well. Bonds are at 4.53% from 4.603%yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $96,648 from $95,864 higher by $486 by 0.51%. Additional Comments:
- Daily Positive Sectors:All were higher led by Consumer Cyclical, Materials and Technology.
- Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
- One Month Winners: All except for Technology of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Technology, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Materials, Financials, Healthcare and Utiltities of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Friday After the Close: None of note.
- Tuesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: trp+0.36, FTS +0.26, THS +0.18, MGA +0.16, SXT +0.06, POR +0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: DKNG -0.12, MRNA -0.23, ESNT -0.08 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: DVA TWLO THS MGA SXT of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support making new lows and now is off those lows.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: NUS +24.1%, ROKU +14.6%, ABNB +13.6%, PCOR +11.7%, FROG +11.4%, ELME +8.5%, GME +7.5%, KAI +5.9%, DKNG +5.4%, ZK +5.2%, GT +4.9%, EAF +4.5%, HL +3.6%, FLUT +3.4%, THTX +3.1%, DXCM +2.9%, YELP +2.7%, PDM +2.5%, WYNN +2.1%, AGI +2% of note.
- Gap Down: INFA -34%, IFRX -18.9%, AENT -12.7%, KN -12.3%, NPCE -11.5%, CLW -11.2%, DVA -9%, TWLO -8.8%, EGAN -7.7%, TCX -6.7%, ISSC -6.5%, SA -6.4%, PANW -5.7%, MGA -5.7%, PDFS -5.6%, AMAT -5.1%, BFAM -5%, GDDY -4.8%, NWG -4%, AEE -3.3%, COHU -3%, RARE -2.8%, KNSL -2.3% of note.
Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: UK Backs Ukraine’s NATO Ambitions Despite U.S. Opposition. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: US Stock Futures move lower after a day of Tariff drama. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: . (CNBC)
- Moderna beats on revenues but lower on earnings. (CNBC)
- US and India to double bilateral trade over the next five years. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Odd Lots: This is why people are so in love with Gold. (Podcast)
Economic:
- January Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.00% from 0.40%.
- January Import/Export Prices came in last month at 0.1% and 0.3%.
- Last, January Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.9%.
- Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule.
- President Trump signs Executive Orders at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump heads to Mar a Largo at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
- No Federal Reserve scheduled.
M&A Activity and News:
- .
Moving Average Table: Drops to 63% from 67%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
- KBW Winter Financial Services Conf
- Morgan Stanley Middle East Investment Forum
- TD Cowen Aerospace & Defense Conf
- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: AIFF, LODE, NMTC, VERO
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: SCHW, VNRX
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: GSK: PDUFA Decision for MenABCWY vaccine
2nd gen - Industry Meetings or Events:
- American Society of Clinical Oncology
- Cisco Live
- Genitourinary Cancers Symposium
- India Energy Week
- Macula Society Meeting
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: MGM WST WMG ROKU BRX
- Downgrades: GLPG PCG
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