Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.50% at 6040.53. Thursday higher by 0.53% at 6071.17. The overnight high was hit at 5988.75 at 3:20 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5935.50 at 9:50 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 53 points. The current price is lower at 7:05 a.m by -1.48% at 5977.50 down -105.48 points.
Executive Summary: The S&P 500 fell by -1% or more on three days in January. So we clustered with multiple -1% losses during last month. Key will be if February can break the clustering pattern. Right now we have our first down day of more than -1%.
Articles of Note: “How Stupid is This Trade War? Let Me Count The Ways.” by John Authers. (Bloomberg)
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
-
- ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- 4 Week Bill Auction at 11:30 p.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Today’s chart is the retracement of the S&P 500 from its August low to January high. Clearly, there are several levels that could be tested.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- IPOs For The Week: FBGL, TTAM
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- ACXP: Form S-1.. 2,610,841 Shares of Common Stock.
- ASPS: Form S-1.. Up to 115,000,000 Common Shares.
- HSDT: FORM S-3 – 6,213,888 Shares of Common Stock.
- IBIO: Form S-3.. 246,087 Shares of Common Stock.
- OCGN: Form S-3.. 57,542,768 Shares of Common Stock.
- OSTX: Form S-1.. 10,834,044 Shares of Common Stock.
- XXII: Form S-3.. 104,124 Shares of Common Stock
- Notes Priced:
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- PLBY files for 25,494,268 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PCT files mixed shelf securities offering.
- SPRY files mixed shelf securities offering.
- BLBX: FORM S-3 – $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
- MPTI: FORM S-3 – $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
- XAIR: Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- PIPE:
- TECX Announces $185 Million Private Placement.
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
Biggest Movers Up & Down Last Week:
- Movers Up: SGRY (25.54 +25.69%), CORT (66.6 +11.02%), FSM (5.06 +13.2%), OSK (115.62 +18.58%), BOOM (8.13 +11.22%), EAT (182.7 +22.21%), RCL (267.3 +15.17%), ABG (295.23 +13.08%), LRN (134.94 +13.03%), AMSWA (14.13 +24.78%), TEAM (302.27 +14.15%), IBM (255.1 +13.48%), CHKP (218.01 +12.1%), PAGS (7.44 +11.04%), NYCB (11.84 +24.5%), BHF (62.01 +22.36%), MBI (7.18 +19.98%) of note.
- Movers Down: MDRX (5.4 -30.77%), BE (23.48 -21.23%), AGX (135.45 -19.63%), FIX (441.26 -18.91%), MOD (101.3 -23.4%), BZH (22.27 -19.08%), MANH (208.07 -28.1%), MXL (17.83 -23.05%), HIMX (10.09 -21.52%), SCSC (42.09 -17.51%), LC (13.54 -20.57%), FFWM (5.1 -18.48%), NEP (10.59 -32.55%)of note.
News After The Close:
- President Trump says nothing Canada, Mexico, and China can do now to forestall tariffs starting Feb. 1. (CNBC)
- President Trump notes he will “absolutely” put tariffs on the EU. (The Daily Mail)
- KBR LinQuest unit awarded U.S. Air Force contract with a ceiling of $970 mln.
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded $383 mln U.S. Navy contract modification
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- FULT COO Karthik Sridharan to depart, effective Friday.
Buybacks:
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: C AON KMI OKE MPLX O SYF NRG NI WES CASY EWBC AIZ AYI KNTK PNW BCO GHC PPBI NWBI DMLP WABC PEBO OCFC CAPL
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: MET SXT BANR DKL WTTR SRCE SPH BY
- CINF increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.87/share $0.81/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 -95 , NASDAQ -382 , Dow Jones -586 and Russell 2000 -53 . Europe is lower with Asia lower as well. Bonds are at 4.515% from 4.521% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas higher as well. Gold is higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $95,466 from $104,911 lower by $-2,500 down -2.55%. Additional Comments: The S&P 500 has now reversed the breakthrough its December high one trading day later after clearing it and and is back below 6100. Can 6000 hold today or does 5900 become support?
- Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials and Consumer Defensive were lower.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Monday After the Close:
- Tuesday Before The Open: (Above $10 Billion Market Cap)
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: TSN +0.24, IDXX +0.13, TWST +0,09, SAIA +0.07 and of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: NSSC -0.06 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is trying to stabilize.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: TGI +35.6%, SSYS +10.6%, SHEN +6.3%, PERI +3.8%, NVX +2.1% of note.
- Gap Down: PLBY -6.1%, LI -4.9%, SPR -3.8%, FLR -3.5%, AVA -3.3%, ZK -2.8%, IP -2.6%, CRGY -2.4%, PCT -2.1%, NIO -2.1%, IWM -2.1%, XPEV -2% of note.
Insider Action: CRK and KDP see Insider buying with dumb short selling. CDXS see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump Raises EU Tariff Threat and Plans Calls with Mexico and Canada. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: Dollar jumps and stocks fall on tariffs. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: Not out yet. (CNBC)
- Elom Musk says that he and Trump are shutting down US AID. (CNBC)
- President Trump says the Federal Reserve made right decision to leave rates unchanged. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Odd Lots: Marko Kolonovich has a warning for stocks. (Podcast)
Economic:
- January ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 49.1% from 49.30%.
- December Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.0%.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule. Nothing up yet.
- Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks at 6:30 p.m. EDT.
M&A Activity and News:
Moving Average Table: Drops from 94% to 70%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
-
- Sellside Conferences:
- Oppenheimer Healthcare Winter CEO & Investor Summit
- Piper Sandler Biopharma Mogul Summit
- Sellside Conferences:
-
- Shareholder Meetings: AMIX, DGII, WINT
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: None of note.
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: AXSM: PDUFA decision for AXS-07
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- International Lewy Body Dementia Conference
- BICSI Winter Conference & Exhibition
- Dynatrace Perform
- Jones Research Precision Medicine Day
- Sky Harbour First Half of 2025 Investor Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
-
-
- Upgrades: SSNC SJW DXCM
- Downgrades: UNP CP CNI AWR
-
