Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 0.53% at 6071.17. Wednesday lower by -0.47% at 6039.31. The overnight high was hit at 6128.50 at 4:30 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6099.50 at 8:25 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 29 points. The current price is higher at 6:50 a.m by +0.46% at 6127.50 up +28.25 points.
Executive Summary: The S&P 500 has now fallen by -1% or more on three days this month with Monday being the third down day of more than -1%. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. With one trading days left in the month and a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting behind us the worst may be over. Key will be if February can break the clustering pattern.
Articles of Note:
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- Several economic indicators out today led by PCE Core.
- 4 Week Bill Auction at 11:30 p.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Walgreen Boots Alliance (WBA) eliminated their dividend today. This stock has been in decline for a long time. Below is the DMA Channel on a monthly basis. Notice where it got a buy signals and two recent sell signals. When a stock breaks its monthly DMA Channel it is time to “… exit stage right”.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: CACC +2.24, SKYW +0.55, KLAC +0.45, DECK +0.42, EMN +0.30, HIG +0.30, LPLA +0.29, TEAM +0.21, OLN +0.12, RMD +.011, BOOT +0.09, V +0.09, BKR +0.08, AAPL +0.05, WY +0.04, GEN +0.01, INTC+0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: AJG -0.91, BZH -0.21, CNI -0.10, PPG -0.03, X -0.02, APPF -0.02 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: BBNX, FBGL, INR, RCT
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- VNOM announces the launch of an underwritten public offering of 22,000,000 shares of its Class A common stock, subject to market and other conditions.
- CELU: Form S-1.. Up to 6,521,739 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
- DRMA: Form S-3.. 1,935,412 Shares of Common Stock.
- KZIA: Form F-1 Filed – 1,373,333 American Depositary Shares Representing 137,333,300 Ordinary
Shares
- Notes Priced:
- Expense Reduction
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PIPE: CIFR announces $50 million PIPE investment from SoftBank Group; co to purchase ~10.4 million shares of Cipher common stock for $50 million.
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
- VLO: Form S-3ASR.. Senior Debt Securities
Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:
- Movers Up: TEAM +18.9%, CIFR +18.9%, VIAV +15.2%, EMN +6.2%, ATGE +6.1%, CACC +5.8%, SKYW +4.8%, KLAC +4.3%, INTC +3.5%, AAPL +3.2% of note.
- Movers Down: DECK -15.8%, BZH -9.3%, OLN -8.2%, BOOT -7.4%, PFSI -4.4%, APPF -3.2%, HIG -2% of note.
News After The Close:
- Diamondback Energy (FANG) has entered into a definitive purchase agreement with Viper Energy (VNOM), a subsidiary of Diamondback, to sell certain mineral and royalty interests from subsidiaries of Diamondback for $1 bln in cash and ~69.6 mln units of Viper’s operating subsidiary in a drop-down transaction.
- President Trump said he is moving forward with plan to impose 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico starting Saturday due to immigration, trade deficits, and fentanyl, Oil may not be taxed.
- EQT expects to report a total loss on derivatives of $184 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024.
- Allstate (ALL) to sell its Group Health business to Nationwide for $1.25 billion in cash.
- Apple (AAPL) beats by $0.05 with revenues in line.
- Waste Management (WMX) shedding 1,000 jobs this year, targeting $450 mln in savings from automation. (WSJ)
- Xylem (XYL) committed to a restructuring plan.
- BAESY awarded increased ceiling modification contract of $1.19 bln by U.S. Air Force.
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- DHX announces its board of directors has approved the appointments of Greg Schippers as Chief Financial Officer and Jack Connolly as Chief Legal Officer.
- ADBE Chief Strategy Officer Scott Belsky to resign effective March 15, 2025, to pursue another career opportunity.
- CFG Vice Chair Beth Johnson to retire, effective March 3.
Buybacks:
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: MS TXN EPD TRGP FAST CFG PAGP LNT PAA ALLY AOS AGNC LW AES ADC NNN STAG CWSI SLG TXNM APLE SKT CNXC EPR NWN CDRE VRTS GEL EFC PFC.
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow:
- Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) suspends quarterly dividend as company continues disciplined execution against strategic priorities.
- HWC increases quarterly cash dividend 12.5% to $0.45/share from $0.40/share.
- AROC increases quarterly dividend to $0.19/share from $0.175/share.
- PCB increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.20/share from $0.18/share.
- PII increases quarterly cash dividend 2% to $0.67/share from $0.66/share.
- ESQ increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.175/share from $0.15/share.
- FIS increases quarterly dividend to $0.40/share from $0.36/share
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +25, NASDAQ +153, Dow Jones +125 and Russell 2000 +2.45. Europe is higher with Asia higher as well. Bonds are at 4.521% from 4.502% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil higher and Brent lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $104,911 from $105,109 lower by $-428 down -0.41%. Additional Comments: The S&P 500 has now reversed the breakthrough its December high one trading day later after clearing it and and is back below 6100. Can 6000 hold and 6100 become support?
- Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Materials, Real Estate, Healthcare and Industrials were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: None were lower.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Friday After the Close: None of note
- Monday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: CHTR +0.89, ARCB +0.28, AON+0.17, ALV +0.17, JHG +0.13, XOM +0.12, BR +0.07, ABBV +0.04, BAH +0.03, CL +0.02 of note. (Limited to > 0.15 today)
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: PSX -0.12, LPG -0.09, CVX -0.05, CHD -0.01 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: ATGE TEAM KLAC VIAVof note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: INTC DECK of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is starting to stabilize.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: HTH +20.4%, TEAM +19.3%, VIAV +16.7%, CIFR +16.6%, ASTS +8.1%, VRTX +7.2%, DHX +6.8%, LPLA +5.7%, BORR +5.6%, RVTY +5.3%, ARCB +4.9%, KRMD +4.2%, EMN +4.2%, AAPL +3.7%, KLAC +3.6%, CDMO +3.5%, WT +3.4%, ATGE +2.5%, NVS +2.3%, VNOM +2.2%, CACC +2%of note.
- Gap Down: DECK -15%, HIG -11.6%, OLN -11.3%, BZH -10.1%, WBA -10%, FHI -8.8%, BOOT -6.7%, PPG -5.8%, STEL -5.2%, BSAC -4.3%, AESI -4.1%, LPG -3.7%, PCB -3.3% of note.
Insider Action: PBF and FLWS see Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Trump Barrels Towards a Tariff Showdown. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: European stocks set for best month in two years. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: . (CNBC)
- German Inflation at 2.8% in January. (CNBC)
- 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
Economic:
- December Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.3%.
- December PCE Core is due out at the same time and expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.1%.
- January PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 41.5 from 36.90.
- Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule. Nothing up yet and Trump is back at the White House. Expect to hear from the president on American Airlines crash today.
- Federal Reserve speakers are out of the blackout period now that the FOMC meeting has ended.
M&A Activity and News:
Moving Average Table: Drops from 67% to 94%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: AMIX, HEPS, MULN, SERA
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings:AXSM, SERA, SUPN
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: AXSM: PDUFA decision for AXS-07
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- International Lewy Body Dementia Conference
- North American Society for Interventional Thyroidology Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: FLG EA CHRW
- Downgrades: OXY CTKB HSY
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