Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.47% at 6039.31. Tuesday higher by 0.92% at 6067.70. The overnight high was hit at 6101.50 at 3:55 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 6061.50 at 6:25 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 40 points. The current price is higher at 7:00 a.m by +0.35% at 6088 up +21.25 points.
Executive Summary: The S&P 500 has now fallen by -1% or more on three days this month with Monday being the third down day of more than -1%. So we are clustering with multiple -1% losses. With two trading days left in the month and a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting behind us the worst may be over.
Articles of Note:This is the first major airline crash since 2009. Here is coverage from the WSJ.
*Note that certain articles highlighted may require a subscription. We highlight noted sources like the WSJ or Bloomberg that have wide audiences.
Key Events of Note Today:
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- Several weekly economic indicators out today along with Q4 GDP and Pending Home Sales.
- 4 Week Bill Auction at 11:30 p.m. EDT.
Daily Chart Request: Want to see an Erlanger Chart in The Morning Note? Simply send an email to us at [email protected] and we will more than likely show it.
Meta (META) is a Type 1 Short Squeeze. The company beat on estimates and continues its move higher with shorts getting killed on their bet.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close
- Beats: MTH +2.48, META +1.26, AMP +0.49, WHR +0.26, RJF +0.25, IBM +0.14, MSFT +0.12, CHRW +0.10, DLB +0.09, WOLF +0.07, TER +0.04, LRCX +0.03, LEVI +0.02, NOW +0.02 of note.
- Flat: TRNS, ELS and ARE of note.
- Misses: SIGI -0.37, WM-0.10, URI -0.09, TSLA -0.04, LVS -0.04, RHI -0.02, WDC -0.01 of note.
- IPOs For The Week: BBNX, FBGL, INR, RCT
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- BFLY: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
- IMNM – Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock – $125.0 million of shares.
- Notes Priced:
- Expense Reduction
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- CLRB: Form S-1.. Up to 19,221,348 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PIPE:
- Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
- TPVG Enters into Note Purchase Agreement for Issuance of 3-Year Investment Grade Notes
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:
- Movers Up: CLS +12.9%, CALX +11.2%, IBM +8.4%, TSLA +5%, LRCX +4%, WDC +2.5%, META +1.7% of note.
- Movers Down: WHR -13.2%, CMPR -8.5%, NOW -8.2%, MSFT -5.1% of note.
News After The Close:
- An American Airlines (AAL) regional jet crashed with a Blackhawk Helicopter at Washington’s Reagan Airport last night. (CNBC)
- There were no survivors in the crash. (CNBC)
- Microsoft (MSFT) slips on weak quarterly revenue guidance. (CNBC)
- IBM shares rise on better earnings. (CNBC)
- Moog (MOGA) selected by Lockheed Martin (LMT) in a contract valued at over $100 mln to provide custom actuators for the Patriot Advanced Capability – 3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement contract with the U.S. Army.
- META to pay $25 mln settlement over 2021 lawsuit by President Trump. (WSJ)
- 10K or Qs Delays – none of note.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- VIK announces the appointment of Leah Talactac as President of the Company, effective immediately.
- CLMB appoints John McCarthy as the new Chairman effective January 28, 2025.
- VBTX announced that Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Terry S. Earley will retire effective June 30, 2025, following a planned transition period.
Buybacks:
- BALL approves $4 billion share repurchase program.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today: MMC VLO AZZ
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: MS TXN EPD TRGP FAST CFG PAGP LNT PAA ALLY AOS AGNC LW AES ADC NNN STAG CWSI SLG TXNM APLE SKT CNXC EPR NWN CDRE VRTS GEL EFC PFC.
- CQP increases cash distribution to $0.82/share from $0.81/share.
- SCHW increases quarterly cash dividend 8% to $0.27/share from $0.25/share.
- AJG increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.65/share from $0.60/share.
- ES increases quarterly dividend to $0.7525/share from $0.715/share.
- UTL increases quarterly dividend $0.45/share from $0.425/share.
- URI increases quarterly dividend to $1.79/share from $1.63/share.
- FNV increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.38/share from $0.36/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 8:15 a.m. EDT) Futures S&P 500 +14, NASDAQ +104, Dow Jones -71 and Russell 2000 +16.40. Europe is higher with Asia higher as well. Bonds are at 4.502% from 4.522% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $105,109 from $102,185 higher by $+872 up 0.84%. Additional Comments: The S&P 500 has now reversed the breakthrough its December high one trading day later after clearing it and and is back below 6100. Can 6000 hold?
- Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Energy, Materials and Consumer Defensive were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Technology, Healthcare and Consumer Cyclical were lower.
- One Month Winners: None of note.
- Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials and Technology of note.
- Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical and Utilities note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Thursday After the Close:
- Friday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: ABG +1.22, PHM +1.11, SNY+1.13, VLO +0.57, OSK +0.41, PH +0.29, UPS +0.22, SIRI +0.17, CAH +0.16, TMO +0.16 of note. (Limited to > 0.15 today)
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: DOW -0.24, MUR -0.23, FLWS -0.12, AOS -0.04, TSCO -0.01, RES -0.01 of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: NCLS LRCX NFG OSK of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: CAOS AVY CCS CLB LEVI LSTR MAN MBLY NOW SHW STM UPS WDC WHR of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D fell to major support, bounced, made new lows and now is starting to stabilize.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- Gap Up: VBTX +23.3%, OFG +18.9%, CLS +12.4%, CALX +11%, NOK +8.6%, LAES +8.4%, IBM +7.9%, LRCX +7%, LVS +6.4%, FLG +5.9%, PESI +5.4%, MTH +4.5%, CHKP +4%, NFG +3.7%, TAK +3.5%, TSLA +3.1%, VIK +3%, BHE +3%, WDC +2.7%, STGW +2.6%, META +2.6%, SNY +2.6%, TWO +2.5%, COUR +2.3%, DOW +2.1%, ALLY +2% of note.
- Gap Down: CRGX -74.4%, WHR -12%, CI -11.7%, IKT -11.1%, BFLY -10.5%, IMNM -10.4%, NOW -9.3%, MXL -8.3%, STBA -7.7%, LEVI -7.5%, IRWD -7%, STM -6.8%, UPS -5.5%, ETD -5.1%, SIGI -4.1%, MEOH -4%, MSFT -3.8%, RHI -3.3%, MXCT -3%, DB -2.9%, AAL -2.3%, RJF -2.3%, AXS -2.2%, HRTG -2.1% of note.
Insider Action: None see Insider buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Lead Story on Bloomberg: Mid Cair Crash Was “Absolutely Preventable” Says U.S. Transportation Secretrary Sean Duffy. (Bloomberg)
- Market Wrap: US Futures climb as trader wait for Apple results after the close. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: Not out yet will post. (CNBC)
- 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
- ECB out with first announcement of the year. (Bloomberg)
- ECB cut by 25 basis points. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Big Take: Russian Oligarch held stake in SpaceX while he was sanctioned. (Podcast)
- Bloomberg Odd Lots: Another housing affordability shock coming. (Podcast)
Economic:
- Q4 GDP is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 2.3% from 3.10%.
- Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
- December Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 0.8% from 2.20%..
- Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Geopolitical: (Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances)
- President Trump’s Daily Schedule. Nothing up yet and Trump is back at the White House. Expect to hear from the president on American Airlines crash today.
- Federal Reserve speakers are out of the blackout period now that the FOMC meeting has ended.
M&A Activity and News:
Moving Average Table: Drops from 67% to 70%.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
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- Sellside Conferences:
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- Shareholder Meetings: AMIX, CDMO, ELLO, NBY, NLSP, OKE, WBA, CYN, KPTI
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: DECK
- Update: None of note.
- Fireside Chat
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: VRTX: PDUFA Decision for Suzetrigine
- Industry Meetings or Events:
- Microcap Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
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- Upgrades: PL ETR META MELI LOGI KO GLW EW EAT CVS BL AKRO
- Downgrades: CRGX (7) PD FND
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