0:00 – Webinar Introduction: Host Ed O’Dowd welcomes attendees to the first CAPIS Research Briefing of 2025. He introduces the guests, Brendan Walsh (Markets Policy Partners) and Ed Hill (Forbes Tate), noting the focus on Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration and its anticipated economic impacts.
2:34 – Trump Administration’s Policy Priorities: Brendan Walsh outlines Ed Hill’s expertise on Capitol Hill and sets the stage for a discussion on Trump’s priorities, including tax policy, tariffs, and executive orders.
3:17 – Cabinet Confirmations and Early Economic Policies: Ed Hill details the confirmation process for key administration officials. He highlights Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) and other economic advisors, emphasizing the administration’s pro-tariff stance and plans to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for immediate tariffs.
8:56 – Tax Cut and Jobs Act Extension: Brendan Walsh and Ed Hill discuss the timeline for extending the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, which sunsets in late 2025. They analyze challenges in reconciling tax cuts, potential offsets and narrow Republican margins in Congress.
14:21 – Regulatory Environment and Market Impacts: Brendan Walsh highlights market optimism around reduced regulations in key industries, while Ed Hill discusses expected approaches to mergers and antitrust enforcement under the Trump administration.
17:38 – Trade Imbalances and External Revenue Policies: Ed Hill addresses Trump’s proposal for an “external revenue service,” potentially targeting trade imbalances with countries like Canada through tariffs or currency devaluation strategies.
21:08 – U.S. Deficit Challenges: Ed Hill examines efforts to address the $37–$40 trillion deficit, discussing Elon Musk’s and Vivek Ramaswamy’s role in government cost-cutting initiatives and their likely impact on spending and regulatory reforms.
25:06 – Federal Reserve Forecasts: Brendan Walsh reviews market reactions to Fed policies, noting reduced expectations for rate cuts in 2025. He anticipates a single quarter-point cut in Q1 due to declining inflation, especially in housing costs, while the Fed evaluates Trump’s fiscal policies.
29:27 – Key Regulatory Agency Appointments: Ed Hill outlines upcoming Republican-led changes in financial regulation, including replacements for key positions at the Federal Reserve and other regulatory agencies, which could ease liquidity and debt requirements for banks.
30:22 – Geopolitical Risks in Ukraine, Russia and Beyond: Ed Hill and Brendan Walsh explore potential deals between Ukraine and Russia, noting shifts in tone from President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. They also discuss recent developments in Middle East diplomacy, including Israel-Hamas agreements.
