CAPIS Morning Note – 11/01/24: Job’s Friday, Futures Up.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -1.86% at 5705.45 from Wednesday lower by -0.33% at 5813.67. The overnight high was hit at 5762 at 6:55 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5732.50 at 10:10 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 30 points. The current price is 5757 at 7:15 a.m. […]

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -1.86% at 5705.45 from Wednesday lower by -0.33% at 5813.67. The overnight high was hit at 5762 at 6:55 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5732.50 at 10:10 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 30 points. The current price is 5757 at 7:15 a.m. EDT higher by +18.50 points higher by +0.32%.

Executive Summary: Yesterday was ugly.The S&P 500 fell -1.86% and the NASDAQ 100 lost -2.44%. After a day like yesterday, we love to look at our Erlanger Big Barf Indicator to see if it turned lower. We will put out a video on this later this morning.

Key Events of Note Today:

Economic releases of note today include Nonfarm Payrolls, Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing along with Weekly Rig Count.

Earnings Out After The Close

Beats: RGA +0.82, TREE +0.72, MTZ +0.40, AMZN +0.29, SKYW +0.23, X +0.15, TEAM +0.13, EMN +0.12, AES +0.11, AAPL +0.04, JNPR +0.03, IR +0.03,
of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: CTRA -0.01, COHU -0.02, BJRI -0.15, INTC -0.44, CAR -1.61 of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs For The Week: ADUR, CASK, CUPR, FBGL, GELS, JUNS, LUD
New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
IPOs Filed/Priced:
Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- ARBE announces proposed public offering
- ASPI announces proposed public offering of common stock
- SLXN Form S-1 Offering and Warrants
Notes Priced:
Direct Offering:
Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
- CCCC files for 4,874,550 shares of common stock by selling shareholder
Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- REGN files mixed shelf securities offering
- CWST files mixed shelf securities offering
- CCCC files $400 mln mixed shelf securities offering
- PLG files $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf

PIPE: NVVE Private Placement of Senior Convertible Notes and Warrants
Convertible Offerings & Notes Filed:
- AAPL: Filed Form S-3ASR — Debt Securities
- MLM Pricing Terms of Debt Offering

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

Movers Up: TEAM +16.7%, INTC +8%, AMZN +5.8%, TREE +5.2%, CUBE +4.6%, AAPL -1.8% of note.
Movers Down: ASUR -19.9%, BJRI -8.3%, FOXF -8.3% of note.

News After The Close:

Amazon (AMZN) prelim Q3 $1.43 vs $1.14 FactSet Consensus; revs $158.88 bln vs $157.28 bln FactSet Consensus, sees Q4 revs $181.50-188.50 bln vs $186.29 bln FactSet Consensus.
Intel (INTC) prelim Q3 ($0.46) vs ($0.02) FactSet Consensus; revs $13.3 bln vs $13.02 bln FactSet Consensus, Q4 guidance is positive.
INTC will reduce its headcount by 16,500 employees; to be substantially complete by 4Q25.
Apple (AAPL) prelim Q4 $1.64 vs $1.60 FactSet Consensus; revs $94.93 bln vs $94.52 bln FactSet Consensus, reports Q4 iPhone revenue of $46.2 bln vs. $44.8 bln estimates.
DRS was awarded a contract from NAVSEA to produce ship-based air and surface target detection AN/SPQ-9B radars, 5 years $225 million.
CACI has been awarded a five-year task order valued at up to $226 mln to provide expertise to the U.S. Southern Command Operations.
Abbott Labs (ABT) up around +5% after being cleared of liability in latest preterm formula case.
JP Morgan (JPM) to pay $151 mln to resolve SEC enforcement actions for failures including misleading disclosures to investors.
Capital One (COF) discloses in 10-Q filing that CFPB is considering an enforcement action.
10-K Delays FTEL
Barron’s: . (Barron’s)

Buybacks or Repurchases:

ALG announces $50 mln share repurchase program

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

Dividends Announcements or News:

Stocks Ex Div Today: COST AON NSC OKE O NRG CASY WES AES LW ALLY WBS PNFP ENLC THO HXL KGS
Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: ETN KKR C AMP BKR VMC CQP SYF DOC EWBC OHI PNW MUSA MC BCO AB FINN FIBK SXT PPBI SJW MSDL WABC PEBO OCFC HSTM CAPL HAFC HBT
ROK increases quarterly dividend to $1.31/share from $1.25/share
EE increases quarterly cash dividend 140% to $0.06/share from $0.025/share

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 + NASDAQ + Dow Jones + Russell 2000 + (at 8:25 a.m. EDT). Asia is lower while Europe is higher. VIX Futures are at 19.43 from 18.88 yesterday while Bonds are at 4.291% from 4.278% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $69,952 from $72.159 lower by -389 at -0.54% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities and Enegy of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Materials, Real Estate and Communication Services of note.
One Month Winners: Utilities, Technology, Materials, Financials and Industrials of note.
Three Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Financials, Materials, Industrials and Consumer Defensive of note.
Six Month Winners: Technology, Utilities, Real Estate, Financials and Consumer Cyclical of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Utilities, Communication Services and Industrials note.
Year to Date Winners: Technology, Utilities, Financials, Industrials and Communication Services of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Friday After the Close: None of note.

Monday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: LNG+2.06, UBER +0.83, BMY +0.31, CI +0.28, IP +0.18, MA +0.15, MRK +0.09, RBLX +0.02 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: H -0.02, PBF -0.09, DFIN -0.28, GVA -0.29 of note.
Still to Report:

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: of note.
Negative or Mixed Guidance: of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line has moved to new recent lows.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up: PRLB +20.6%, TEAM +20.1%, CDXC +17.5%, HALO +14.7%, WMPN +12.2%, CDZI +8.6%, GDYN +7.5%, UNF +7.1%, AMZN +6.1%, INTC +5.9%, BRLS +5.3%, DORM +5.2%, EOSE +5.1%, CACI +5%, ABT +4.8%, TREE +4.7%, CON +4.5%, MTZ +4.2%, ZK +4.1%, MGA +3.9%, TILE +3.9%, ICFI +3.8%, CUBE +3.6%, LOCO +3.1%, SEM +3%, SPNT +3%, SON +2.7%, MERC +2.6%, NMR +2.5%, SKYW +2.3%, SUPN +2.1%, EE +2.1%, KRMD +2.1%, LXRX +2.1%, BA +2.1%, CVX +2.1%, CTRA +2%

Gap Down: EPIX -64.8%, ARBE -18.7%, FOXF -7.9%, ASUR -6.8%, BJRI -5.6%, ASPI -5.2%, MYO -3%, BWMN -3%, RMAX -3%, CUBI -2.7%, KWR -2.7%, AMCR -2.3%, EGO -2.2%,

Insider Action: None of note that see Insider buying with dumb short selling. None of note that see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

Pre-Market Movers: AMZN AAPL TEAM. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
Latest CNN Headlines. (CNN)
Bloomberg Lead Story: Apple Sparks Concern With Tepid Forecast and China Weakness. (Bloomberg)
Markets Wrap: Stocks rise with payrolls set to cap volatile week. (Bloomberg)
Final jobs report to be a wild one. (CNN)
Boeing (BA) Union endorses latest proposal to end strike. (Bloomberg)
Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) beat estimates. (Bloomberg)
Apple service unit now $100 billion. (CNBC)
Bloomberg: Big Take – Messy election could shake the Dollar’s reign. (Podcast)
Bloomberg: Odd Lots – What a nuclear reveal means for Uranium. (Podcast)
Marketplace: What’s behind the uncertainty in the housing market. (Podcast)

Economic:

October Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 120,000 from 254,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.10%.
September Construction Spending is expected to get back to positive at 0.0 from -0.10%.
October ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 47.60%.
Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

Federal Reserve Speakers move into a blackout period due to FOMC meeting next week.

President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
The president heads to Philadelphia to speak about his support of unions at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Watch our Twitter feed, Bullet86, for any impromptu appearances.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Moves from 80% positive to 33%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

- Sellside Conferences:
  - Cantor’s European TMT Conference

- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Top Shareholder Meetings: DXF, SOL, VLCN
- Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: TRML
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
  - Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease – Oct 29-Nov 1
  - COYA: Data Presentation for COYA 301
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings or Events:
  - Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease (CTAD) Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: XEL COHU YPF WING

Downgrades: