CAPIS Morning Note – 9/6/24: Jobs Friday, Stocks Ugly Start To Day

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.30% at 5503.41 from Wednesday lower by -0.16% at 5520.07. The overnight high was hit at 5,523 at 4:15 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5466.50 at 3:20 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 57 points. The current price is 5477.75 at 7:00 a.m. EDT […]

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -0.30% at 5503.41 from Wednesday lower by -0.16% at 5520.07. The overnight high was hit at 5,523 at 4:15 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5466.50 at 3:20 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 57 points. The current price is 5477.75 at 7:00 a.m. EDT lower by -34.50 points.

Most Important Article Of the Morning: Trump and Harris Get Set to Debate by Peggy Noonan. (WSJ)

Late Headline: Jobs came in with a move of 142,000. Downwards in July and June by 86,000.

Executive Summary: Today it is all about the jobs data. Estimates are for growth of 177,000. Merrill Lynch sees 200,000. A strong number will confuse markets and a really weak number could see the week finish negatively.

  • Jobs data at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats:  AGX +0.34, ZUMZ +0.29, DOCU +0.16, SMAR +0.15, BRZE +0.12, GWRE +0.08, IOT +0.04, AVGO +0.02, PATH +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: SWBI
  • Misses:  None of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week: CUPR, GLXG, JBDI, PMAX, TDTH
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • AVB announces public offering of 3.2 mln shares of common stock 
    • IRT Closing of Public Offering of 11,500,000 shares of Common Stock, Including Exercise in Full of
      Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares
    • RMCF: Form S-1.. 1,250,000 Shares of Common Stock
  • Notes Priced:
    • AVNT Pricing of $650 Million 6.250% Senior Notes due 2031
    • GLNG – pricing of USD 300 million unsecured bond issue
    • RYAN – Upsizes and Prices $600 Million of Senior Secured Notes
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • TRNS files for 31,142 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders
    • WBX files for 49,817,456 shares of Class A common stock offering by selling shareholders
    • SERV files for 3,311,110 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholder
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

  • Movers Up: AGX +17.3%, PATH +9.4%, GWRE +8.1%, HELE +4.9%, SMAR +3.9%, X +2.3% and TVTX +2.1%.
  • Movers Down:  SWBI -7.9%, PL -7.20%, BRZE -5.5% and AVB -3%. 

News After The Close :

    • AWK through the Indiana American Water receives approval from the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission for the acquisition of the Silver Creek Water Corporation for $45 million.
    • COST reported August sales rose 7.1% from $18.5 billion last year.
    • CRM inching lower after nearing deal to buy Own, a startup, for $2.0 bln. (Bloomberg)
    • CBOE reports trading volume for August 2024, Index Option Contracts rose 15.1%. (Release)
    • ASR announces that passenger traffic for August 2024 reached a total of 6.0 million passengers, representing a decrease of 2.8% compared to August 2023.
    • INTC ticks mildly higher after exploring sale of part of its Mobileye (MBLY) stake. (Bloomberg)
    • 10-Q or 10-K Delays –  None of note.
    • NASDAQ Delisting Notice – None of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.

  • HELE announces new $500 million share repurchase authorization.
  • PATH announces $500 mln expansion to its stock repurchase program; with new authorization, company may repurchase up to $554 mln of its outstanding shares during remainder of program.
  • ROK approves $1 billion for common stock repurchase.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • RLGT names industry veteran Laurent Grousseau as CTO
  • MWA announces that CFO Steven S. Heinrichs will transition from his CFO role, effective December 31, 2024
  • LSAK CFO Naeem Kola appointed to COO; Dan Smith to be appointed CFO and join the Board
  • AMCR Fred Stephan, previously President, Amcor Flexibles North America, to newly introduced role of COO

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: BAC PEP BKNG TT AJG GM KMB NTES LHX WDS PUK GPC NTRS AMCR JKHY CHRW TPR ORI KNX MLI AAON AI FLO.
  • Stocks Ex Div  Monday: GOOGL GOOG BLK CME FDX BDX SPG PEG FSUGY EDU LANC MPW
  • VICI increases quarterly cash dividend 4.2% to $0.4325/share from $0.415/share.
  • BRC increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.24/share from $0.235/share

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 -35 NASDAQ 100 -205, Dow Jones -165 Russell 2000 -14.15. Asia is lower ex Australia and Europe is lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 19.60 from 19.12 from 19.35 yesterday while Bonds are at 3.704% from 3.77% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher for a second day. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $56,044 from $56,696 lower by -0.11% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Healthcare, Energy, Materials and Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Financials, Technology, Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Industrials and Healthcare of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Real Estate, Healthcare, Financials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Utilities, Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, Utilities,  and Healthcare note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive and Healthcare of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note
  • Monday Before The Open: AVO CVGW RBRK

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  GCO+0.28, DOOO +0.26, ABM +0.08, BRC +0.08 of note.
  • Flat:
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: TTC

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ABM of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: DOOO of note.

Advance/Decline Weekly Update With Both Daily and Weekly Stats: The weakness continued on Thursday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: FFIE +26.5%, AGX +21.3%, BOWL +12.1%, PATH +9.6%, NX +8.6%, GWRE +7.9%, TVTX +7.3%, IOT +5.3%, SMAR +5.1%, AOUT +4.3%, BRC +4.2%, X +3.4%, HELE +3%, BBW +2.9%
  • Gap Down: PL -9.7%, AVGO -9%, SWBI -7.3%, MBLY -5.7%, DOOO -4.1%, BRZE -3.8%, SERV -3.3%, WBX -3.1%, AVB -2.7%

Insider Action: None of note see Insider buying with dumb short selling.  None of note see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Pe-Market Movers: PATH AGVGO (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: . (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks Fall Ahead of Jobs Data as Slowdown Fears Rise. (Bloomberg)

Economic:

  • August Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 165,000 from 114,000. 
  • The August Unemployment Rate is expected to fall to 4.20% from 4.30%.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
  • President Biden delivers a speech in Ann Arbor, Michigan at 3:15 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers      

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams will speak at 8:45 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will speak at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee at 11:30 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Indexes: Moves from 47% to 23% of the moving averages being positive.

 

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • Citi Global Technology Conference
      • Morgan Stanley Global HealthCare Conference
      • Vertical Research Partners Global Industrials Conference
      • Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Shareholder Meetings: CTRM, DHAI, GRYP
    • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: CBU, FAST
    • Update: None of note.
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation:
    • Company Event:
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • Bradykinin Symposium
      • International Celiac Disease Symposium (ICDS) 2024
      • PAINWeek Conference
      • Roblox Developers Conference
      • SEMICON Taiwan

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: 

Downgrades: