CAPIS Morning Note – 6/25/24: S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 Higher, Dow and Russell 200 Lower. Divergence Continues.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by Friday lower by -0.16% at 5464.62. The overnight high was hit at 5,529.50 at 7:20 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5511 at 4:05 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 18 points. The current price is 5527.25 at 7:25 a.m. EDT higher by +10.25. Executive […]

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Monday lower by  Friday lower by -0.16% at 5464.62. The overnight high was hit at 5,529.50 at 7:20 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5511 at 4:05 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 18 points. The current price is 5527.25 at 7:25 a.m. EDT higher by +10.25.

Executive Summary: Inflation remains front and center in the morning’s discussion. PCE Core on Friday may settle the debate.
  • 2-Year Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Consumer Confidence due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Bowman says no to rate cuts in 2024, more like 2025.
Earnings Out After The Close
  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: ACTU, GLE, LB, MJID, NVA, OSTX, QMMM,
    TBN, WBTN, WOK.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
  • Notes Priced of note:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BIRK files for 14 mln ordinary share offering by selling shareholder.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • SEDG files for $300 mln convertible notes offering.
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • Biggest Gainers and Losers After The Close Of Note:
    • ARVN +8%, FAAS +5%, BA +4.4%
    • SEDG -13%, POOL -13%, LHX -5%
  • POOL lowers FY24 EPS guidance below consensus, says seasonally significant Q2 revenues are below previous expectations, guides Q2 EPS below consensus.
  • WOLF  announces key milestones and operational update. Also, lowers guidance due to equipment incident.
  • ILMN competes spin-off of GRAIL (GRAL), which will begin trading today.
  • ABG provides update on cyber-attack on CDK Global; has not yet determined whether incident is will have a material impact on company’s financial condition.
  • NVDA reaches deal with Digi Tech Limited to secure allocation of an initial tranche of 5,120 NVIDIA H200 GPUs.
  • EPAC reports Q3 EPS inline (single estimate), misses on revs, issues downside FY24 revenue guidance.
  • OpenAI will let current and former employees to participate in any tender offers. OpenAI backed by Microsoft (MSFT). (CNBC)
  • MOS potash sales revenue $371 mln vs. $672 mln last year.
  • MMLP puts on a statement oil spill in Arkansas.
  • LHX awarded a $998.8 mln maximum value US Navy contract.
  • BA awarded a not-to-exceed $210.9 mln US Navy order.

Buybacks or Repurchases:

  • None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • BROS announces appointment of Todd Penegor to its Board of Directors, who previously served as Wendy’s (WEN) CEO.
  • TRGP announces that Jennifer Kneale, current CFO, will become President – Finance and Administration; William Byers will join company as its new CFO.
  • CNS announces that Raja Dakkuri has joined as CFO.
  • OMI Jonathan Leon, its Senior Vice President, Corporate Treasurer, has been appointed as interim Chief Financial Officer effective June 21, 2024.
  • ARVN appoints Andrew Saik to the role of CFO and Treasurer.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: EC MTN ARCO HTLD

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 +14, NASDAQ 100 +99, Dow Jones -21 , Russell 2000 -1.51 . Asia is higher while Europe is lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.33 from 14.47 yesterday while Bonds at 4.226% from 4.263% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower while Natural Gas is higher. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower for a second day. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $61,409 from $61,241 higher by 2.77% this morning.

 

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors:  Energy, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Financials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology and Consumer Cyclicals of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Healthcare and Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Defensive and Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Industrials, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Financials,  Industrials, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Financials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: FDX PRGS WOR of note.
  • Wednesday Before The Open: GIS UNFI PAYX of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  None of note.
  • Flat:   None of note.
  • Misses: SNX -0.09 of note.
  • Still to Report: CCL of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance:   None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Remains awful for NASDAQ and weak for NYSE.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+4% or down more than -4%):

  • Gap Up: GGR +9.2%, ARVN +7.8%, IMMP +5.3%, FAAS +4.7%, CORT +4.6%, HIVE +4.4%, ADV +4.2% of note.
  • Gap Down: SEDG -14.7%, POOL -10.4%, EPAC -9.2%, SWIM -5.6%, LOT -4.9%, LESL -4.1%, BIRK -3.8%, ORN -3.1%, HALO -3%, MMLP -2.1%  of note.

Insider Action:   None of note saw Insider buying with dumb short selling.  None of note saw Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Now Before The Market Opens on Tuesday morning. (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: U.S. Futures Gains after Nvidia led slump. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: How Bernard Arnault built LVMH. (Bloomberg)
  • Wikileaks Julian Assange to plead guilty under U.S. deal. (Bloomberg)
  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says no to Biden ceasefire proposal. (The Washington Post)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) gets Wegovy approval in China. (Reuters)
  • AAPL rebuffed a partnership with META on AI. (Bloomberg)
  • AAPL seeks to reduce some iPhone assembly workers by 50%. (The Information)
  • The current homebuying season is a real dud. (Barron’s)
  • MFC hosts Investor Day 2024, raising the bar on new financial targets.
  • Pfizer (PFE) testing a non GLP-1 mechanism to achieve weight loss. (Semafor)
  • Federal Governor Bowman says she’s still open to raising rates if inflation doesn’t improve.
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: AI power needs threaten climate progress. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg: Odd Lots: Tom Lee says S&P 500 could hit 15,000 by 2030. (Podcast)
Geopolitical:
  • President Biden’s Daily Schedule:
    • There is a Daily Briefing scheduled for 10:00 a.m. EDT today.
    • President Biden is still at Camp David preparing for his debate with Donald Trump on Thursday.

Economic:

  • June Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 100 from 102.
  • Case Shiller Home Price Index is out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to drop to 6.9% from 7.4%.
  • Weekly API Crude Oil is out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers      

  • Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 7:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve  Governor Lisa Cook speaks at 12:00 p.m. EDT.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

M&A Activity and News:

  • None of note.

Moving Averages On Major Indexes:  Moves from 73% to 80% of the moving averages now positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Jefferies Space Summit
    • Northland Securites Growth Conference
    • Oppenheimer Novel Targets in Summit
    • Stifel European Healthcare Summit
    • TD Cowen Tool/Dx Revolution Conference
    • Truist Healthcare Disruptors & Digital Health Summit
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AMS, BB, BIDU, EXPE, KMX, NEON, SCVL, STK, TY, ZH
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AIRC, AJG, ENLV, HYPR, ITRG, MFC, SYRS, TRN
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • DASH Summit
    • Peripheral Nerve Society Meeting.
    • Spinal Cord Injury Investor Symposium

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

           Upgrades: HNST GPS E CRDO BALL ASND

Downgrades: