CAPIS Morning Note – 03/26/24: Futures Rebound, Bridge Collapses in Baltimore

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday from Friday lower by -0.14% at 5234.18. The overnight high was hit at 5300 at 7:00 a.m. EDT while the overnight low was hit at 5277.25 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight is 23 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range […]

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday from Friday lower by -0.14% at 5234.18. The overnight high was hit at 5300 at 7:00 a.m. EDT while the overnight low was hit at 5277.25 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight is 23 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 20.62 from 20.84. The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +19.25 points at 7:25 a.m. EDT.

Executive Summary: This morning we wake to the Francis Scott Key Bridge gone. I remember driving this bridge a great deal between 2000 and 2004 when we lived in NYC and my parents were in Annapolis. Besides the human tragedy, this accident will impact trade around the East Coast and be a catalyst for more inflation. Pay attention to the impact.

February Durable Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to improve to 1.3% from -6.1%.
March Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 106.70 unchanged from last month.
The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for the period of February 27th through March 13th and during that time the S&P 500 rose 1.72%

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beats: MKC +0.05 of note.
Flat: None of note.
Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
New SPACs launched/News:
Secondaries Priced:
Notes Priced of note:
Common Stock filings/Notes:
- TRNO commences a 5,000,000 common share offering.
- REXR announces a $840 million offering of common stock to a West Coast investor.
- MTDR commences 5,250,000 common stock offering.
Direct Offering:
Selling Shareholders of note:
- Outlook Therapeutics (OTLK) files for 21,428,556 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
- Lexicon Pharma (LXRK) files for 57,661,250 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
- Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) files for 43,219,517 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
- JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) files for 571,295 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- Bank of America (BAC) files $160 bln mixed-shelf securities offering
- Matador Resources (MTDR) files mixed-shelf securities offering
Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
Tender Offer: None of note.
Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

After Hours Movers:
- STOK +81.2%, NARI +6.2% and APPF +4.7% jumping on index change; WPRT -11.6% down on earnings, OTLK -3%, REXR -3%, TRNO -3%
News Items After the Close:
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: (CNBC)
- Sonocco Products (SON) puts through a price increase for all grades of uncoated recycled paperboard sold in Europe.
- Colorado Court Schedules Preliminary Injection Hearing in FTC case against Kroger (KR) takeover of Albertsons. (Bloomberg)
- AppFolio (APPF) will replace Inari Medical (NARI) in the S&P MidCap 400.
- Inari Medical (NARI) will replace Callon Petroleum (CPE) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, April 1

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- Skywest (SKYW) Chairman Jerry Atkin to retire and James L. Welch is to take over as Chairman.
- Eventbrite (EB) CEO Julia Hartz to also become Executive Chair taking over for Kevin Hartz.
- Webster Financial (WBS) announces that Glenn MacInnes intends to retire from his role as CFO.
Buyback Announcements or News:
Stock Splits or News:
Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +20.50 , Dow Jones +85 , NASDAQ +97 , and Russell 2000 +14.80. (as of 8:01 a.m. EST). Asia is lower ex South Korea while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.21 from 14,75 this morning. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher this morning for the third day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.232% from 4.234% this morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $70,811 from $66,851 lower by -0.05% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):

Daily Positive Sectors: Energy and Utilities of note.
Daily Negative Sectors: All others lower led by Industrials, Technology and Real Estate to the downside..
One Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials of note.
Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials of note.
Six Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials of note.

(WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

Tuesday After the Close: CNXC, GME, NCNO and PRGS of note.

Wednesday Before the Open: CTAS and UNF of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

Beats: MKC +0.05 of note.
Flat: None of note. of note.
Misses: None of note. of note.
Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

Positive Guidance: None of note.
Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

Gap Up: STOK +86.3%, MESO +22.3%, DNUT +17.2%, APPF +6.4%, PSTX +4.9%, NARI +3.8%, UPS +3.1%, SKYW +2.5%, EB +2.5% of note.
Gap Down: WPRT -10.6%, OTLK -5.3%, TRNO -2.6%, REXR -2.3% of note.

Insider Action: No stock see Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
Morning Briefing For Bloomberg Subscribers. (Bloomberg)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves. DNUT UPS MU STX MCK SMCI TSM (CNBC)
Bloomberg Lead Story: Vital Bridge Collapses After Being Struck By Ship. (Bloomberg)
Chinese President Xi to meet with American executives tomorrow. (Reuters)
The Francis Scott Bridge in Baltimore collapsed overnight when a cargo ship hit the bridge. (NYT)
President Biden is closing the gap against President Trump to 4%. (Bloomberg)
Blackrock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink issues his annual letter. (Letter)
Cocoa soars past record $10,000, crushing chocolate makers. (Bloomberg)
McDonalds (MCD) to sell Krispy Kreme (DNUT) nationwide by end of 2026. (CNBC)
Bloomberg: The Big Take: Musk’s Starlink falling into wrong hands. (Podcast)
NYT The Daily: The United States vs The iPhone. (Podcast)
Marketplace: Africa’s gaming market will grow to $1 billion by this year. (Podcast)
Wealthion: Debunking the jobs market hype with David Rosenberg. (Podcast)
Adam Taggart Thoughtful Money: “Higher For Longer Inflation” to persist. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score 100% Day 3.

Geopolitical:

President’s Public Schedule:
- President Biden heads to Raleigh, NC at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
- President Biden delivers remarks at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
- President Biden and Vice President Harris participate in a campaign reception at 5:30 p.m. EDT.

Economic:

February Durable Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to improve to 1.3% from -6.1%.
March Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 106.70 unchanged from last month.
The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for the period of February 27th through March 13th and during that time the S&P 500 rose 1.72%

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

No Fed speakers of note today.

M&A Activity and News:

Vista Outdoor (VSTO) confirms it received a revised unsolicited indication of interest from MNC Capital to takeover the firm at $37.50/share.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Sellside Conferences:
- - Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
    - BOFA Sun City Conference
    - Canaccord Genuity Genetic Medicine for Generalists
    - Mizuho Israel Growth Conference
    - Wells Fargo Clean Energy Symposium
Top Shareholder Meetings:
Fireside Chat: None of note.
Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ADBE ED ESLT LITE LUCD PGY PRAX PTPI SLS SPXC UPS
Update: None of note.
R&D Day: None of note.
Company Event:
Industry Meetings:
- - Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
    - BIO-Europe Spring
    - National Home Infusion Association (NHIA) 2024 Conference
    - Optical Fiber Communication Conference
    - Partner Conference Empower
    - Plastics Recycling Conference
    - Tau2024 Global Conference
    - Milken Global Investors Symposium

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Upgrades – NUVB to Buy at BTIG, NDAQ to Buy at Goldman, BNPQY to Buy at Goldman.
Downgrades – PJT to Sell at UBS.
Initiated – Buys at Mizuho: MGM LVS HLT MAR CCL DKNG. EVRG Buy at Citigroup.