CAPIS Morning Note – 03/11/24: Stocks Lower to Start The Week

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.65% at 5123.69 from Thursday higher by 1.03% at 5157.364. The overnight high was hit at 5196 at 6:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5170.25 at 4:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight is 25.75 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day […]

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.65% at 5123.69 from Thursday higher by 1.03% at 5157.364. The overnight high was hit at 5196 at 6:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5170.25 at 4:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight is 25.75 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 25.25 from 24.75.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -8.75 points at 7:25 a.m EST. 

CNBC get’s exclusive interview with Former President Donald J. Trump this morning. (CNBC)
Executive Summary: The week is focused on inflation data. Will be curious to see the market’s reaction to Trump’s interview.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: JANX +0.17 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Investcorp Europe Acquisition Corp I (IVCB) amends business combination agreement following divestiture of OpSec Security.
    • Nova Vision Acquisition Corp. (NOVV) Announces Additional Contribution to Trust Account to Extend Period to Consummate Business Combination to April 10, 2024.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • EOLS: Announces the pricing of its underwritten offering of 3,554,000 shares of its common stock at a underwritten offering price of $14.07 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BITF: Announces $375 Million At-the-Market Equity Offering Program.
    • BPTH: Filed Form S-1.. UP TO 1,152,073 shares of common stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • SPIR: Files for 833,333 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • WULF: Files for 45,771,303 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • LXEO: Entered into a common stock purchase agreement with investors for 6,278,905 shares of its common stock at a price of $15.13 per share in a private placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ARKO: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • BMR: FORM F-3 – $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • COF: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • HMN: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • MSCI: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • ONCT: FORM S-3 – $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • VMC: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • WLDN: FORM S-3 – $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • XOMA: FORM S-3 – $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • ZTR: Virtus Total Return Fund Inc. Announces Tender Offer Program.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • AR: Redeems outstanding 4.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026.
    • MSTR: Completes $800 Million Offering of 0.625% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2030.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Weekend:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: STI 75.5%, RILY 40.1%, KPTI 36.7%, STIM 34.7%, BEAT 32.3%, GRTS 30.0%, CRBP 29.1%, AVAV 29.0%, MDRX 24.8%, CC 24.3%, DQ 22.8%, TPIC 21.6%, DDD 20.6%, HMY 20.4%, MUX 19.1%, SA 17.2%, CDE 17.0%, BHVN 16.9%, NKTR 16.6%, ACRS 16.5%.
    • Trading Down: EXPR -42.1%, MEI -34.6%, FL -30.5%, CDXS -25.2%, SAVE -24.6%, UNFI -23.7%, SFIX -22.3%, TAL -20.6%, BIG -20.1%, EBS -19.6%, SGMO -19.2%, THO -18.7%, SABR -18.4%, GCO -18.0%, JWN -18.0%, TBBK -17.5%, ALB -17.2%, NVTA -17.2%, AXGN -17.0%, PLCE -17.0%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Microsoft (MSFT): Sam Altman rejoining OpenAI Board of Directors. (TheInformation)
    • Nvidia’s (NVDA) terrible Friday gives traders a preview of what a momentum unwind would look like. (CNBC)
    • The Score: Stocks That Defined the Week – SAVE, JBLUE, TGT, AVGO, NYCB, RIVN, KR, ACI (WSJ)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Traders Are on Alert for a Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation Print. (Bloomberg)
    • Japan averts technical recession as revised fourth-quarter data shows its economy grew 0.4%. (CNBC)
    • Delta (DAL) CEO Expects Boeing (BA) 737 Max 10 May Be Delayed Until 2027. (Bloomberg)
    • Elon Musk’s X is launching a YouTube (GOOGL) clone for smart TVs, starting with Amazon and Samsung, in its bid to pivot to video In a bid to compete with YouTube and recast itself as a video platform, Elon Musk’s X is launching a television app for Amazon and Samsung smart TVs, a source at the company told Fortune. The company plans to launch the app next week, and a source says it looks “identical” to YouTube’s TV app.
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: MELI of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Eagle Pharma (EGRX) CFO resigned.
    • Evergy (EVRG) Chairman Mark Ruelle to retire; Evergy President and CEO David Campbell to serve as Chairman of the Board.
    • Linde plc (LIN) to Join the Nasdaq-100 Index.
    • PHAXIAM Therapeutics (PHXM) announces effectiveness of voluntary delisting of American Depositary Shares from Nasdaq Stock Market.
    • Rush Enterprises (RUSHA) COO Michael McRoberts to step down later this year; Jason Wilder to assume role.
    • Sonendo (SONX) Announces Departure of Chief Financial Officer.
    • Turning Point Brands (TPB) announces the appointment Andrew Flynn as the Company’s new Chief Financial Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • MarineMax (HZO) announces that its Board of Directors approved a new stock repurchase plan.
    • National Fuel (NFG) Announces New Share Repurchase Program. (see Dividend below)
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • AFMD  will trade 1/10 reverse split today.
    • Better Choice Company (BTTR) To Effectuate a Reverse Stock Split.
    • Hempacco (HPCO) Announces One-for-Ten Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) raises quarterly dividend by 25% to $0.40 per share.
    • Graphite Bio (GRPH) declares special dividend estimated at $1.03 per share; conditioned upon closing of previously announced merger with Lenz Therapeutics.
    • National Fuel (NFG) Declares Quarterly Dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -8, Dow Jones -46, NASDAQ -38, and Russell 2000 +0.79.  (as of 8:01 a.m. EST).  Asia and Europe are lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.10 from 14.52 Friday morning.  Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower along with Natural Gas for a second morning in a row. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.081% from 4.073% Friday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $71,759 from $67,590 higher by +3.32% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Financial of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive, Basic Materials, Healthcare, Industrials, Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Utilities,, Basic Materials, Real Estate Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrial of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Financial, Industrial, Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Industrials Communication Services of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Healthcare, Financial, Communication Services of note.

Stocks dropped to end the week after the latest U.S. jobs report offered mixed signals on the economy and the run-up in tech shares took a breather.  The S&P 500 closed Friday 0.7% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.2%. All three indexes logged weekly losses, with the Nasdaq off 1.2%.  Information technology was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector Friday. Chip makers struggled, with Broadcom, Intel, Microchip Technology and ON Semiconductor all shedding at least 4%. Broadcom reported profits that missed Wall Street expectations after Thursday’s close.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: LEGN (0.07), FTRE (0.04) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: MESO +24%, GRPH +14%, MLTX +14%, ETRN +8%, WULF +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: NN -7%, BITF -5% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Stocks making the biggest moves this morning COIN MSTR PDD DUAL XEL NVDA NYCB NFLX AMAT PG . (CNBC)
  • Morning Briefing for Bloomberg subscribers. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Traders are  (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Futures slip as countdown to inflation begins: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Bitcoin above $71,000 for the first time. (Bloomberg)
  • Reddit to raise $750 million for IPO. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Daybreak: Biden “redline” and a Bitcoin record. (Podcast)
  • NYT The Daily: Billionaire’s plan to solve California Housing Problem. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: AI can’t handle the truth when it comes to the law.  (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: $150,00 prediction on Bitcoin stokes fear of missing out. (Podcast)
  • Adam Taggart Thoughtful Money: Liquidity is still in charge. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score drops to 77% from 91%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 7:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Wilmington, Delaware en route to Joint Base Andrews, 8:55 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to the Marriott Marquis, Washington, DC, 10:05 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks at the National League of Cities, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs en route to Joint Base Andrews, 11:45 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to Manchester, New Hampshire, 12:15 p.m. EDT
    • Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton will speak aboard Air Force One en route to Manchester, New Hampshire, 12:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Manchester, New Hampshire, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on lowering costs for American families, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign event, 3:35 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Manchester, New Hampshire en route to Joint Base Andrews, 5:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to the White House, 6:40 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 6:50 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • 3 and 6 Month Auction 11:30 a.m. EDT
  • 3-Yr Note Auction 1:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News:

  • EQT Corp. (EQT) and Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) nearing merger deal. (WSJ)
    • Confirm definitive merger agreement with an initial enterprise value over $35 billion.
  • SeaChange (SEAC) to be Acquired by Partner One.
  • Wyndham (WH) Board of Directors Sends Letter to Shareholders Highlighting Clear Path to Deliver Value Substantially in Excess of Choice’s (CHH) Inadequate and Risk-Laden Offer

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Capital Link International Shipping Forum
    • Citigroup TMT Conference
    • Deutsche Bank Media Internet & Telecom Conference
    • J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference
    • Jefferies Value Based Healthcare Summit
    • Leerink Global Biopharma Conference
    • Loop Investor Conference
    • Tech Talk With Evercore ISI
    • Wolfe Fintech Forum
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: CLSK EDSA KVUE MGAM SANM SONO
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls:  CLAR FARO GTES INCY VTYX
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Academy of Dermatology Meeting
    • HIMSS Global Health Conference and Exhibition
    • Society of Toxicology conference
    • SXSW Conference and Festivals
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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