CAPIS Morning Note – 06/14/23: Stock Run Continues, PPI Due Out Shortly. Fed Announcement at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 4369.01 higher by 0.69% from Monday at 4338.93 higher by 0.93%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4428 at 4:55 a.m. EDT while the low was high at 4413 at 8:15 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 15 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range […]

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 4369.01 higher by 0.69% from Monday at 4338.93 higher by 0.93%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4428 at 4:55 a.m. EDT while the low was high at 4413 at 8:15 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 15 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 16.40 from 17.20. The average for May was 21.63. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +7 and is up 0.16% at 7:25 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Malacca Straits Acquisition (MLAC) and Indiev mutually agree to terminate merger; intends to liquidate as soon as practicable on June 16.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • CWST: Announces Pricing of Public Offering of 5,263,158 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • IRON: Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.
    • KURA: Announces Pricing of $100 Million Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants. $5.66M shares + warrants at $11.50 per share.
    • RDNT: Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • LITE: Announces Upsize and Pricing of $525 Million Convertible Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CNVS: Proposed Public Offering.. AGP Placement agent.
    • INPX: Form 424B5.. Up to $7,100,000 Common Stock.
    • IMMX: Completes $5 Million At-The-Market Equity Offering Program.
    • KURA: Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants. $100 Million. (BAC, Jefferies and SVB Bookmanager) (MarketWatch)
    • MVIS: Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (see Mixed Shelf too)
    • QLGN: Filed Form S-1.. Stock and warrants.
    • RDNT: Proposed $175 Million Underwritten Public Offering Of Common Stock. (Jefferies And Rj Bookmanager)
    • SR: Announces Proposed Offering of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • HOTH: Filed Form S-3.. $25 million Mixed Shelf.
    • MVIS: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • BILI: Announces Completion of the Repurchase Right Offer for Its 1.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027.
    • YY: Announces the Results of the Repurchase Right Offer for its 0.750% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025.
  • Tender Offer:
    • SABR: Announces Successful Completion of Previously Announced Private Financing and Settlement of Cash Tender to Strengthen Balance Sheet and Improve Free Cash Flow.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: None of note.
    • Trading Down: CNVS -28%, MVIS -15%, RDNT -7%, IVAC -7%, KURA -5% of note.
  • News After The Close:
    • US Plans To Buy 12 Million Barrels Of Oil For Reserve This Year. (Bloomberg)
    • Google’s (GOOGL) Bard chatbot has been blocked in the European Union over privacy concerns. (BusinessInsider)
    • Brunswick Corporation (BC) Experiences IT Security Incident.
    • Whole Foods distributor United Natural Foods (UNFI) eliminating 150 jobs. (MarketWatch)
    • Amazon (AMZN) Resolves Service Outage That Knocked Websites Offline. (Bloomberg)
    • Nikkei hitting levels not seen since 1990.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Catalent (CTLT) Regains Compliance with NYSE Continued Listing Standards.
    • First Horizon (FHN) Rejoins BKX.
    • HUB Security (HUBC) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Iteris Holdings (ITI) files to delay its 10-K.
    • Lifezone Metals (GOGN) announces Ingo Hofmaier as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Logitech (LOGI) Announces CEO Departure.
    • Lottery.Com, Inc. (LTRY) Stock Returns to Trading on Nasdaq.
    • RUTH Halted Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ.
    • Toyota Motor (TM) announces changes to Board members.
    • Veradigm Inc. (MDRX) Receives Approval from Nasdaq of Plan to Regain Listing Compliance.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Cenovus (CVE) announces repurchase of 84% of its outstanding warrants.
    • Equity Commonwealth (EQC) Announces $150 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.  Currently has $120 million remaining for repurchases that expires June 30, 2023
    • GigaCloud Technology Inc (GCT) Announces $25.0 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • LifeVantage (LFVN) Extends Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Shell (SHEL) plans $5 Billion share buyback. (see Dividends too) (also Capital Markets Day)
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • ATI Physical Therapy (ATIP) Announces 1-for-50 Reverse Stock Split.
    • Boxlight (BOXL) Announces 1-for-8 Reverse Stock Split of Class A Common Stock.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Realty Income (O) increases its monthly dividend 0.2% to $0.2555 per share.
    • Rockwell Automation (ROK) Declares Quarterly Dividend of $1.18 Per Share on Common Stock.
    • Shell (SHEL) boosts dividend by 15%.
    • AIG Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.36.
    • AMT Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.57.
    • PLD Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.87.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +5, Dow Jones -86,  NASDAQ +25,  and Russell 2000 +6. (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia higher ex South Korea and Europe are higher. VIX Futures are at 17 from 15.35 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher from yesterday. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.827% from 3.738% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $26,001 from $26,139 from yesterday, higher by 0.45%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Financials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Healthcare of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stocks rose Tuesday after new inflation data showed price pressures slowed again in May, adding to investor optimism that the Federal Reserve could skip a rate hike when it next decides on policy this week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 145.79 points higher, or 0.43%, to close at 34,212.12. The S&P 500 added 0.69% to close at 4,369.01, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.83% to 13,573.32.  The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched fresh 13-month highs during Tuesday’s session. Both indexes each reached their highest closing levels since April 2022 on Monday.  (CNBC – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: LEN of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: AAMC +11%, NEXT +10%, GCT +6%, CVE +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: CNVS -28%, ITI -13%, MVIS -12%, LOGI -11%, RDNT -9%, KURA -6%, UNH -4%, IVAC -4% of note.

Insider Action: COGT sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Five Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Fed Set to Pause and Keep Option to Raise Rates in July. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: Instant Brands, maker of Instant Pot and pressure cooker and Pyrex glassware, Files for Bankruptcy.  (Bloomberg)
  • European Central Bank closer to ending its rate hikes. (CNBC)
  • Google (GOOGL) risks breakup as EU attacks abuse of ad tech power. (Bloomberg)
  • Citadel’s Ken Griffin ramps up credit trading in front of a potential recession. (Bloomberg)
  • AMD moves higher as Amazon Web Services looks to use AMD AI Supership. (Yahoo Finance News)
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) falls pre-market -3.3% as net interest income falls. (MarketWatch)
  • Mortgage Demand rises as rates drop from recent highs. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Day three at 100%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing; The Vice President attends, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route to The Anthem, Washington, D.C., 7:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks at the League of Conservation Voters annual Capital Dinner, 7:55 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 8:55 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: +7.2%, Purchase: +7.6%, ReFi: +6%
    • U.S. MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.77% Vs 6.81% Previous
    • U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications (Wow) Actual: 7.2% Vs -1.4% Previous
    • Nearly Everyone With a Mortgage Has an Interest Rate Below 6%, Prompting Many to Stay Put — Another reason sellers are staying put is because they bought recently; a record 60% of mortgage holders have lived in their home for four years or less, further contributing to the supply shortage
  • May PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at -0.1% from 0.2%.
  • Atlanta Fed Business 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: 

  • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is out with its latest decision at 2:00 p.m. EDT followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT with Chairman Powell.

M&A Activity:  None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Cantor Fitzgerald Mobility & Industrial Tech Conference 2023 (06/14/23-06/15/23)
    • Morgan Stanley European Real Estate Capital Markets Conference (London) (06/14/23-06/15/23)
    • RBC Capital Markets Montreal TMT Forum: Staying in the Fast Lane 2023
    • Sidoti June Small-Cap Virtual Conference 2023 (06/14/23-06/15/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Roth MKM Internet Virtual Summit 2023 (06/11/23-06/15/23)
        • Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference (06/12/23-06/15/23)
        • Morgan Stanley 14th Annual US Financials Payments & CRE Conference 2023 (06/12/23-06/14/23)
        • Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Commerce Conference (06/12/23-06/14/23)
        • Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conf (06/13/23-06/15/23)
        • Evercore Consumer and Retail Conference (06/13/23-06/15/23)
        • Goldman Sachs Annual European Financial Services Conference 2023 (06/13/23-06/15/23)
        • Nasdaq Investor Conference (06/13/23-06/14/23)
        • Wells Fargo Industrials Conference (06/13/23-06/15/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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