TGIF Global Markets 3/29/2019
Asian Markets Word of progress in the Sino-US trade talks lifts equities. Most of the major indices recorded significant gains with the Chinese markets leading the way. Surprisingly, Australia lagged with utilities and energy among others holding the ASX200 back. For the region, all major sectors end the day better. Consumer staples, financials, healthcare and…
Asian Markets
Word of progress in the Sino-US trade talks lifts equities. Most of the major indices recorded significant gains with the Chinese markets leading the way. Surprisingly, Australia lagged with utilities and energy among others holding the ASX200 back. For the region, all major sectors end the day better. Consumer staples, financials, healthcare and real estate improve by c. 2%.
European Markets
Europe is also trading well and currently near highs of the day. Sweden lags the as the anti-money laundering scandal continues to weigh upon the banks. Basic resources area head by c. 2%. Retail, autos, technology, financials and constructions improve by c. 1.0% or more. with most other sectors to the upside. Defensives and travel/leisure lag.
We couldn’t go a day without mentioning Brexit. Parliament will have a third vote regarding PM May’s Brexit plan. However, today’s vote will only be for a portion of the existing deal she has hammered out with the EU. Debate is occurring as we to to press with the tally scheduled for 10:30 AM Eastern.
Other Important International Headlines
- ICBC -0.8% did not take part in today’s rally following results out after yesterday’s close. FY 18 NI is CNY 297.7b vs. CNY 300.41b expected. The NPL ratio is 1.52% while NII improves to 2.3% vs. estimates of 2.26% . The FY18 Final dividend 25.06 CNY cents.
- Chalco -2.4% suffered even more. The aluminium (not a typo) giant’s FY NI is beneath the range. The company has also elected to refrain from paying a dividend.
- Conversely, NI at COSCO Ports +11.0% is above the range. The company also indicates the current FY is off to a strong start and it is “well positioned.”
- After the Asian markets closed, the BoJ indicates it will maintain its current asset purchase pace while Bank of Chine released results.
- AstraZeneca -6.0% is paying Daiichi Sankyo +16.0% $6.9b to jointly develop an experimental breast and gastric cancer treatment. Astra is raising $3.5b via a share placement to fund part of the deal.
- H&M +12.6% rises following its earnings and certainly is seeing short covering. The company’s Q1 PTP is ahead of consensus. Additionally, margins are also better than feared.
- Travel services company TUI -8.0% sees FY profits below expectations due to the Boeing 737 Max grounding. An analyst at Bernstein ponders if this is a valid reason or an excuse!
On Our Side of the Pond
- In a surprise move, Wells Fargo CEO Sloan announces he will step down from his post immediately.
- Morgan Stanley President Kelleher will step down at the end of June.
- The Lyft IPO is priced at the top end of the price range which had been lifted earlier this week: $72. The shares commence trading today.
- Following yesterday’s strong gains, Morgan Stanley is placing a block of Lululemon.
- Late yesterday, Mexico left is benchmark rate unchanged at 8.25%.
Have a great weekend!
Markets and Macro
| Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | ||
| SK | Industrial Production YoY | Feb | -0.50% | -2.70% | 0.10% | -0.20% |
| SK | Industrial Production SA MoM | Feb | -0.70% | -2.60% | 0.50% | 0.20% |
| SK | Cyclical Leading Index Change | Feb | — | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| JN | Jobless Rate | Feb | 2.50% | 2.30% | 2.50% | — |
| JN | Job-To-Applicant Ratio | Feb | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.63 | — |
| JN | Tokyo CPI YoY | Mar | 0.90% | 0.90% | 0.60% | — |
| JN | Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY | Mar | 1.10% | 1.10% | 1.10% | — |
| JN | Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY | Mar | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.70% | — |
| JN | Industrial Production MoM | Feb P | 1.40% | 1.40% | -3.40% | — |
| JN | Industrial Production YoY | Feb P | -1.10% | -1.00% | 0.30% | — |
| JN | Retail Trade YoY | Feb | 1.00% | 0.40% | 0.60% | — |
| JN | Retail Sales MoM | Feb P | 1.00% | 0.20% | -2.30% | -1.80% |
| JN | Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales | Feb | -1.30% | -1.80% | -3.30% | — |
| UK | GfK Consumer Confidence | Mar | -14 | -13 | -13 | — |
| UK | Lloyds Business Barometer | Mar | — | 10 | 4 | — |
| AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | Feb | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% | — |
| AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | Feb | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.30% | — |
| JN | Vehicle Production YoY | Jan | — | 7.00% | -0.70% | — |
| JN | Housing Starts YoY | Feb | -0.10% | 4.20% | 1.10% | — |
| JN | Annualized Housing Starts | Feb | 0.929m | 0.967m | 0.872m | — |
| JN | Construction Orders YoY | Feb | — | -3.40% | 19.80% | — |
| GE | Import Price Index MoM | Feb | 0.40% | 0.30% | -0.20% | — |
| GE | Import Price Index YoY | Feb | 1.70% | 1.60% | 0.80% | — |
| GE | Retail Sales MoM | Feb | -1.00% | 0.90% | 3.30% | 2.80% |
| GE | Retail Sales YoY | Feb | 2.10% | 4.70% | 2.60% | 3.10% |
| UK | Nationwide House PX MoM | Mar | 0.00% | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| UK | Nationwide House Px NSA YoY | Mar | 0.60% | 0.70% | 0.40% | — |
| FR | Budget Balance YTD | Feb | — | -36.9b | -17.3b | — |
| FR | Consumer Spending MoM | Feb | 0.20% | -0.40% | 1.20% | 1.40% |
| FR | Consumer Spending YoY | Feb | -1.20% | -1.80% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
| FR | CPI EU Harmonized MoM | Mar P | 1.00% | 0.90% | 0.10% | — |
| FR | CPI EU Harmonized YoY | Mar P | 1.40% | 1.30% | 1.60% | — |
| FR | CPI MoM | Mar P | 0.90% | 0.80% | 0.00% | — |
| FR | CPI YoY | Mar P | 1.20% | 1.10% | 1.30% | — |
| SP | GDP QoQ | 4Q F | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.70% | — |
| SP | GDP YoY | 4Q F | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.40% | — |
| SP | Retail Sales YoY | Feb | — | 1.70% | 1.70% | — |
| SP | Retail Sales SA YoY | Feb | 1.00% | 1.20% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| HK | Budget Balance HKD | Feb | — | -8.3b | 49.1b | — |
| HK | Money Supply M1 HKD YoY | Feb | — | -3.80% | -5.20% | — |
| HK | Money Supply M2 HKD YoY | Feb | — | 1.30% | 1.40% | — |
| HK | Money Supply M3 HKD YoY | Feb | — | 1.40% | 1.50% | — |
| GE | Unemployment Change (000’s) | Mar | -10k | -7k | -21k | -20k |
| GE | Unemployment Claims Rate SA | Mar | 4.90% | 4.90% | 5.00% | — |
| SP | Current Account Balance | Jan | — | -1.5b | 4.7b | 4.2b |
| UK | Net Consumer Credit | Feb | 0.9b | 1.1b | 1.1b | 1.2b |
| UK | Consumer Credit YoY | Feb | — | 6.30% | 6.50% | — |
| UK | Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings | Feb | 3.7b | 3.5b | 3.7b | 3.6b |
| UK | Mortgage Approvals | Feb | 65.0k | 64.3k | 66.8k | 66.7k |
| UK | Money Supply M4 MoM | Feb | — | 0.30% | 0.20% | — |
| UK | M4 Money Supply YoY | Feb | — | 1.20% | 0.50% | — |
| UK | M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised | Feb | — | 2.30% | 2.40% | — |
| UK | GDP QoQ | 4Q F | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| UK | GDP YoY | 4Q F | 1.30% | 1.40% | 1.30% | — |
| UK | Total Business Investment QoQ | 4Q F | -1.40% | -0.90% | -1.40% | — |
| UK | Total Business Investment YoY | 4Q F | -3.70% | -2.50% | -3.70% | — |
| UK | Current Account Balance | 4Q | -22.9b | -23.7b | -26.5b | -23.0b |
| IT | CPI EU Harmonized MoM | Mar P | 2.10% | 2.30% | -0.20% | -0.30% |
| IT | CPI NIC incl. tobacco YoY | Mar P | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.10% | 1.00% |
| IT | CPI EU Harmonized YoY | Mar P | 1.00% | 1.10% | 1.10% | — |
| IT | CPI NIC incl. tobacco MoM | Mar P | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| IT | PPI MoM | Feb | — | -0.20% | 0.00% | — |
| IT | PPI YoY | Feb | — | 3.90% | 4.40% | — |
| IN | Eight Infrastructure Industries | Feb | — | — | 1.80% | — |
| CA | GDP MoM | Jan | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| CA | GDP YoY | Jan | 1.30% | — | 1.10% | — |
| US | Personal Income | Feb | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| US | Personal Spending | Jan | 0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| US | Real Personal Spending | Jan | 0.30% | — | -0.60% | — |
| US | PCE Deflator MoM | Jan | 0.00% | — | 0.10% | — |
| US | PCE Deflator YoY | Jan | 1.40% | — | 1.70% | — |
| CA | Industrial Product Price MoM | Feb | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| CA | Raw Materials Price Index MoM | Feb | — | — | 3.80% | — |
| US | PCE Core MoM | Jan | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| US | PCE Core YoY | Jan | 1.90% | — | 1.90% | — |
| US | MNI Chicago PMI | Mar | 61 | — | 64.7 | — |
| US | New Home Sales | Feb | 620k | — | 607k | — |
| US | New Home Sales MoM | Feb | 2.10% | — | -6.90% | — |
| US | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Mar F | 97.8 | — | 97.8 | — |
| US | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Mar F | — | — | 111.2 | — |
| US | U. of Mich. Expectations | Mar F | — | — | 89.2 | — |
| US | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Mar F | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| US | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Mar F | — | — | 2.50% | — |