Morning Note -3/6/19

Fun Fact: Ten years ago today saw the S&P 500 makes is 2009 and ultimate low at 666. What a 10 years it has been! In After Hours Trading IPOs on deck This Week: Two new IPOS were on deck for this week Shock Wave Medical and Futu Holdings. IPOs on deck for Today: Tuscan Holdings…

Fun Fact: Ten years ago today saw the S&P 500 makes is 2009 and ultimate low at 666. What a 10 years it has been!

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck This Week: Two new IPOS were on deck for this week Shock Wave Medical and Futu Holdings.

IPOs on deck for Today: Tuscan Holdings – Unit (THCBU) of note.

Secondaries on deck:  IQV HZNP SRPT ASND NVTA SE  CBAY  CERC FRPT VCYT of note.

Debt Offering on deck:  MRK SGMS AI EXAS of note.

IPO Filings Announced After The Close: No common stock offerings filed today.

Announcements For Secondary Filings & Financings:  SSTI  SRPT CBAY BAND FRPT IQV HONE file common stock offering.  EXAS files a convertible offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: COO +0.38, UNFI +0.20, AVAV +0.19, CDLX +0.10, AMBA +0.10, SAIL +0.10, NX +0.05, WMC +0.02, OOMA +0.02, PRMW +0.01, URBN +0.01

Flat: ROST.

Missed: VSLR (0.30), AGS (0.27), NIO (0.15), FATE (0.01)

Positive Guidance: COO


Negative Guidance: AMBA CDLX ROST 

News After The Close:

Skywest (SKYW) sees block hours rise 6.1% from a year ago February.

Restoration Hardware (RH) names Jack Preston as CFO.

Horizon Pharmaceutical (HZNP) receives a CID from the Department of Justice over potential kickbacks to PBMs.

United States Cellular (USM) ends its agreement with Assurant (AIZ) at the end of 2019.

Stock Repurchase: 

Dividend Increases: JILL (special $1.15)

Notable Recent Insider Transactions Since 3/5: MDCO Director buys $4.7 million of stock. RUN 10% owner buys $12.6 million of stock.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Yesterday saw indexes gap open and then sell off until 1:00 p.m. EST. From there we rallied.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures trade flat overnight then rallied from 3:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m. before coming back to flat for the day.

U.S. futures: S&P -5.75, Dow Jones -58, NDX -13 and Russell 2000 -4 with fair values LOWERING THE LOSSES. Asia and Europe mixed.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.92 with yields lower since Tuesday morning with the yield at 2.717% from 2.737% . Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EST.

Top Sectors Tuesday: Technology, Consumer Goods and Healthcare.

Weakest Sectors Tuesday: Conglomerates, Industrials and Financials.

One Month Winners: Industrial Goods, Conglomerates,Technology and Services.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Technology, Conglomerates, Utilities and Services.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Conglomerates, Healthcare and Services.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Services, Technology, Materials and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):


Thursday Before The Open: CNQ KR BURL HRB NAV TECD IGT CPG SSYS of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: ANF +0.20, BJ +0.08, TSG +0.08, CHS +0.03, JILL +0.02, BF.B +0.02, DLTR +0.01

Flat: AMRC

Missed Estimates: THO (1.12), BZUN (0.57), DCI (0.04), INXN (0.04)

Yet To Report:  None of note.

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: President Trump wants a trade deal with China to keep the stock market rally alive. (Bloomberg)

5 Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day – (Bloomberg) Trump pushes trade deal. Dirty money at European banks. Brexit delay again? Markets quiet. What else is on deck today.

OECD sees global growth continuing to slow as Europe weakens and risks to economies remain. (Reuters)

The Trump Administration terminates Turkey and India designation of trading preference. (Newsy)

North Korea is rebuilding long range missile site. (NBC News)

Federal Reserve looks at new rules on foreign banks. (Reuters)

French Government issues new tax levy on high tech companies. (WSJ)

Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 1240 stocks rise and 1638 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1149 rise and 1918 fall. The 10 day moving average (DMA) is fading. This needs to be watched.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 and 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but now back below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 and 200 day simple moving average. The Dow and the S&P 500 are now above their  20 day moving averages. The Russell 2000 is back below its 5 day moving average and now below its 10 and 20 day moving average. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved back below their 5 day moving averages. The Dow is also back below its 10 day moving average.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell when it ends below -200 for two straight days, which right now seems far away.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD 88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 3/1/19 close with next update on 3/8/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Yesterday was another struggle all closing pivot to support.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research

The Value Lines may be accessed via Bloomberg. For a free trial go to APPS: ERLA <GO>

Economic & Related:

API Petroleum Data through last Friday saw Crude Oil build by 7.29 million barrels and Gasoline had a draw of 0.39 million barrels.

February ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and ise expected to fall to 175,000 from 213,000.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m.


President Trump has a quiet day with no major meetings of note.

Michael Cohen is back to testify in a closed session before the House Intelligence Committee.

Huawei CFO Extradition Hearing at 11:00 a.m. EST.

Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester to speak at noon EST.

Federal Reserve New York President John Williams to speak but no specific time yet. (see my Twitter with time when I get it Bullet86)

Equifax (EFX) and Marriott (MAR) to testify on Thursday before Senate on last year’s data breaches.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: APY (investor day), TTD ( investor day), QLYS (investor meeting),  XOM (investor day), LOGI (analyst and investor day), ZUMZ (monthly sales data).

Sellside Conferences: Citi Global Property CEO Conference. Raymond James Annual Institutional Conference. Daiwa Annual Investment Conference.  Morgan Stanley Global Energy & Power Conference. JP Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Industrials Conference.Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference.

Industry Conferences: South By Southwest Conference.

M&A News & Rumors:

Omnicom (OMC) will sell MarketStar to Wasatch Group, no terms.

Tabula Rasa HelathCare (TRHC) acquires PrescribeWellness, no terms.

Aon Corp (AON) will not bid for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW).

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners: AVAV +12%, AMBA +9%, XXII +8%.

Losers: NIO -15%, QTT -11%, CDLX -10%, VSLR -9%, PRMW -8%, THO -7%.