Morning Note – 2/7/19
In After Hours Trading IPOs on deck: Six on deck for this week including Alector, GossamerBio, Harpon Therapeutics, Monocle Acquisition, RMG Acquisition and Weatherbridge Acquisition. Secondaries on deck: Secondaries to be priced this morning RMBL. IPO Filings After The Close: Alector (ALEC) and Monocle Acquisition (MNCLU) common stock offerings today. Announcements For Secondary Filings & Financings: RMBL files common stock offering. TRHC files convertible offering….
In After Hours Trading
IPOs on deck: Six on deck for this week including Alector, GossamerBio, Harpon Therapeutics, Monocle Acquisition, RMG Acquisition and Weatherbridge Acquisition.
Secondaries on deck: Secondaries to be priced this morning RMBL.
IPO Filings After The Close: Alector (ALEC) and Monocle Acquisition (MNCLU) common stock offerings today.
Announcements For Secondary Filings & Financings: RMBL files common stock offering. TRHC files convertible offering.
Earnings After The Close:
Beat: UHAL +0.46, NTGR +0.39, IRBT +0.37, CMG +0.31, AOSL +0.29, CSGS +0.19, SONO +0.11, CINF +0.11, BLKB +0.10, MC +0.10, ECHO +0.09, AEL +0.09, WERN +0.08, NEWR +0.07, FTNT +0.07, MET +0.06, FORM +0.06, FLT +0.06, TTMI +0.05, OSUR +0.05, PSDO +0.05, ACLS +0.04, GPRO +0.04, RGLD +0.04, ENSG +0.03, KNL +0.03, LNC +0.03, TWO +0.02, TRMB +0.02, FLO +0.01, CUZ +0.01, PCTY +0.01, MTCH +0.01, FEYE +0.01.
Flat: ELY, ZNGA, CDAY, TTGT, PSEC, GBDC, CCK, EGP, COR.
Missed: AHL (1.29), PRU (0.35), LCI (0.35), CENT (0.11), CUB (0.10), NOV (0.06), MTRX (0.05), ENS (0.04), ENTA (0.04), VVV (0.04), ICHR (0.03), ORLY (0.03), PAHC (0.02), DHT (0.02), AINV (0.01), RYN (0.01).
Positive Guidance: CDAY ENSG LCI NEWR PSDO.
Mixed Guidance: BLKB ELY CSGS FEYE FLT FLO FTNT IRBT MTRX PCTY.
Negative Guidance: ACLS CCK ECHO ICHR MTCH NTGR NTR ORLY OSUR TRMB TTMI VVV ZNGA.
Repurchase Agreements Announced: DEO
Dividends Increased: CSX MC CME GRA BMS
Special Dividend Declaration: MC
News After The Close:
Costco (COST) sees January sales up +5.2%.
PC&E (PCG) falls on San Francisco natural gas explosion in San Francisco.
BAE Systems (BAESY) picks up two Navy contracts worth $230 and $110 million.
SQN Investors pushes Yelp (YELP) to seek buyers.
Hourly Action This Past Week:
Intraday action remains strong since the beginning of the year. Yesterday saw mixed action.
Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures
U.S. futures: S&P -16.25, Dow Jones -133, NDX -45.50 and Russell 2000 -8.80 with fair values HIGHER WEAKENING THE OPEN. Asia higher ex Japan and Europe lower.
Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 122.20 with yields lower since Wednesday morning with the yield at 2.67%. Prices as of 8:45 a.m. EDT.
Top Sectors Wednesday: Healthcare.
Weakest Sectors Wednesday: Materials, Technology, Services and Utilities.
One Month Winners: Industrial Goods, Technology, Services, Consumer Goods and Financial.
Three Month Winners: Utilities, Industrial Goods, Technology and Financials.
Six Month Winners: Utilities.
Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Healthcare and Conglomerates.
Year to Date: All higher led by Industrial Goods, Conglomerates, Materials, Services, Technology and Financials.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):
Today After The Close: TMUS FISV RSG FTV MT VRSN MSI DXC EXPE IAC MTD SGEN MHK of note.
Friday Before The Open: CCJ PSX VTR HAS CBOE ARNC PCG PSXP CAE COTY BPL of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note:
Beat Estimates: CEIX +0.58, MPC +0.45, FCAU +0.25, CAH +0.20, ODFL +0.20, EPC +0.14, DTE +0.12, CDW +0.11, PTEN +0.10, GRA +0.10, ADS +0.09, MAS +0.08, SEE +0.08, TMUS +0.08, DNKN +0.07, YUM +0.07, TWTR +0.07, VIRT +0.05, MMS +0.05, PENN +0.03, BCE +0.03, TSN +0.03, VSTO +0.03, LH +0.03, SNA +0.02, HBI +0.02, ICE +0.02, SPGI +0.01, PBH +0.01, MD +0.01, MAC +0.01
Missed Estimates: SPB (0.66), AMAG (0.57), EIGI (0.26), LCII (0.19), BR (0.15), MPLX (0.14), HAIN (0.12), ANDX (0.09), ADNT (0.08), PRLB (0.06), PAG (0.06), WMS (0.05), WLTW (0.05), TPR (0.04), TKR (0.03), BV (0.03), SNY (0.02)
Still to Report: ARW, BSIG, CNHI, GRUB, K, MPW, MLCO, PM, WWE
Rags & Mags:
Top Story:Big bank merger about technology and scale. Expect others with cheap price/book levels.
5 Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) – Shutdown countdown starts, Brexit a titanic challenge, big focus on central bankers markets struggling today and coming up.
Suntrust (STI) and BB&T (BBT) to merge in a merger of equals. (Bloomberg)
Senator Brian Schatz (D- HI) wants to tax financial trades. (Bloomberg)
Democrats to go after President Trump’s tax returns. (CNBC)
EU may go after FANG stocks on copyright issues. (FT)
Bank of England (BOE) warns of increased risks on Brexit collapse and indecision. (Bloomberg)
Review of the day the VIX doubled a year ago. Can it happen again? (Bloomberg)
Yesterday saw 1142 stocks rise and 1730 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1444 rise and 1578 fall.
The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. All three indexes are now above their 5,10 and 20 day moving averages. The S&P 500 moved above its 100 day simple moving average yesterday while the Russell 2000 is close to this level.
The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely. The S&P 500 had been up 5 days in a row. We got the down day we had been expected. Looks like weakness continues today.
Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc
YTD 88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 2/1/19 close with next update on 2/8/19 close.
Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.
The first struggle day since January 28th. S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 traded pivot to support. The Dow Jones traded resistance to pivot.
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range.
Economic & Related:
Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories Due Out At 10:30 a.m. EST.
$19 billion of 30 Year Treasuries auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EST.
December Consumer Credit due out at 3:00 p.m. EST.
Bank Of England (BOE) out with latest interest rate update. Press Conference being held with Mark Carney. Brexit main concern.
Conferences & Analyst Meetings:
Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: COST (monthly sales), SGMO (trial update), UROV (R&D day), TORC (drug update), DLMRY (investor day), NHYDY (analyst conference). Prelim Q4 Sales from CATO BKE LB.
Sellside Conferences: none of note. None of note.
Industry Conferences: MicroStrategy World 2019.
M&A News & Rumors:
Suntrust (STI) and BB&T (BBT) to merge in a merger of equals.
Cisco (CSCO) buy privately held Luxtera for $660 million.
Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)
Winners: LCI +21%, PSDO +14%, IRBT +13%, MTCH +11%, CMG +10%, STI +7%, IAC +7%, GRUB +6%, MC +6%,TACO +6%, SRCI +6%, PRTK +5%, NOV +5%, ARRY +5%, GPRO +5%.
Losers: USAT -26%, OSUR -11%, FEYE -10%, TPR -10%, RMBL -8%, SONO -6%, PSTI -5%, CENT -5%, TTMI -5%,CCK -5%.