Morning Note – 1/18/19

THERE IS NO PRODUCTION MONDAY MORNING AS MARKETS IN THE U.S. ARE CLOSED FOR MARTIN LUTHER KING HOLIDAY. In After Hours Trading IPOs on deck: IPOs will pick back up in the next couple weeks now that we are in 2019. Government shutdown may delay filings. Secondaries on deck:  priced this morning. IPO Filings After The…


In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: IPOs will pick back up in the next couple weeks now that we are in 2019. Government shutdown may delay filings.

Secondaries on deck:  priced this morning.

IPO Filings After The Close:

Secondary Filings  KNI CERC  common stock. 

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: OZK +.06 NFLX +.06 AXP +.04 TEAM +.04 PRGS +.03 PBCT +.02 

Missed: JBHT -0.68


Positive Guidance On Earnings:

Guidance Mixed:  AXP TEAM

Negative Guidance on Earnings: PRGS NFLX

Positive Guidance For Upcoming Quarter: 

Negative Guidance For Upcoming Quarter: NLS CASA TIF

Dividend Increase:  ED

Stock Repurchase Announcement: GPOR MLHR JEC

News After The Close:

Brazil not taking sufficient action to address structural fiscal risks notes Fitch.

President Trump and the U.S. Delegation will not attend Davos World Economic Forum due to government shutdown, confirmed.

Copa Holdings (CPA) sees December Traffic +5.3% year over year.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Stocks are continuing to remain positive this week on an hour by hour basis.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

Research Note Of Interest

This morning Ted Moreau of Terrace Research weighs in on the Consumer Electronic Show (CES). Ted attended the show last week. There are some great facts in this update for us. Ted’s product focuses on research in the TMT space and also does contract work for several clients. He notes, ” Last week we attended the 2019 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. The majority of our time was spent meeting with companies rather than walking the show floor. So we don’t have a great feel for the buzz on the show floor, but heard attendance was down relative to past years, which we suspect was due to Huawei’s lack of presence this year. Given the U.S. / China trade negotiations and the current anti-Huawei sentiment hitting the tech industry, we find their absence very interesting. We would have thought Huawei would want to be more visible and reassuring to their technology partners, which aren’t always U.S. centric.” (for more click through)

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures Rising As Morning Advances

U.S. futures: S&P +11.75, Dow Jones +161,  NDX +31 and Russell 2000 +6.50  with fair values HIGHER CUTTING INTO GAINS.  Asia higher. Europe higher.

Gold  and silver lower and copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.63 with yields lower since Wednesday morning with the yield at 2.77%. Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Thursday: All lead by  Industrials, Conglomerates and Materials.

Weakest Sectors Thursday: None.

One Month Winners: Financials, Industrials, Services and Conglomerates.

Three Month Winners: Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities and Conglomerates.

Twelve Month Winners: Conglomerates and Utilities.

Year to Date: All higher.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

Today After The Close: none of note


Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates:   VFC +.21 STI +.07 CFG +.04    

Missed Estimates:  SLB -.02 RF -.01 FHN -.01

Raised Guidance:  VFC

Lowered Guidance:  

Mixed Guidance: 

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: President Trump reportedly told his lawyer Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about the Moscow Project. (CNBC)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) – Day28 of shutdown, U.K. Prime Minister not going to Davos,  Trade rumors rallying stocks, Tesla cuts and rally mode globally.

Tesla (TSLA) to cut 7% of workforce. (CNBC)

Tesla (TSLA) recalls 14K cars over airbag issue. (TechCrunch)

U.S. to be the top producer of Crude Oil in 2019 says the IEA. (CNBC)

China warns Canada of “repercussions” if Huawei is banned from 5G. (FT)

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans notes would not be surprised if rates higher at year end. (Bloomberg)

CMS issues the benefits and payment parameters for 2020.

CVS Health (CVS) and Walmart (WMT) sign multiyear agreement on pharmacy benefit and managed medicaid.

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 2040 stocks rise and 854 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1926 rise and 1145 fall.

The SP 500 moved above its 50 day simple moving average yesterday  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. All three indexes are now above their 5, 10 and 20 day moving averages. All three indexes regained their 5 day moving average yesterday.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy last Monday at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened last Monday.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  86% of stocks are higher and 14% are lower. Updated 1/11/19 close with next update on 1/18/19 close. First tracking  of 2019.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


Monday saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 struggle for the first time in quite a while but rebounded the past three days.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

December Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.6%.

January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT  and is expected to fall to 96 from 98.3


The government shutdown enters Day 28.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: GME (holiday update)

Sellside Conferences:  None of note.

Industry Conferences: None of note.

M&A News & Rumors:

Globant (GLOB) to buy Avanxo, no terms disclosed.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Best Upgrade Call of the Day: SPB as stock down from $92 to $53.

Worst Downgrade Call of the Day: 15 yard penalty for piling on SIG after fell from $33,.85 to $25.13 yesterday. Too late.

Pre-Market Movers:

Gap Up and Downs Pre Market:

Winners:  +14% TEAM +9% CFG +7% VFC +7% JBHT +6% STI +5% GPOR +5%.   Losers: NLS -37%  CASA -27% LXRX -22% PRGS -11% TSLA -7%