CAPIS Morning Note – 9/26/24: China Action Moves Futures Then Tepper Pours Gasoline On The Futures. Strong Day Ahead.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.19% from Tuesday higher by +0.25% at 5732.93. The overnight high was hit at 5828 at 4:35 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5780.75 at 6:00 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 48 points. The current price is 5823.50 at 6:35 a.m. EDT higher by…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.19% from Tuesday higher by +0.25% at 5732.93. The overnight high was hit at 5828 at 4:35 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5780.75 at 6:00 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 48 points. The current price is 5823.50 at 6:35 a.m. EDT higher by +44.50 points.

Most Important Article Of the Morning: Tepper interview is must watch TV. What for CNBC and YouTube to watch.

Executive Summary:  Stocks are “el fuego” after Micron (MU) reported strong earnings with positive guidance. AI is alive and well. Short Interest rose 2.40% on NYSE and fell -0.35% on NASDAQ. Chart of NASDAQ below shows where we are on a relative basis. Currently, CNBC is interviewing Family Office and Former Hedge Fund Titan David Tepper and he is saying do not be short with the Federal Reserve and now China is easing modes. Then minutes ago said he added to “EVERYTHING”.

  • 7-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • 4 Week Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT
  • 5 Economic releases today!!

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats:   MU +0.07, WS +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: 
  • Misses:  FUL -0.10, JEF -0.06 and CNXC -0.06 of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week: BIOA, BKV, FBGL, GRDN, LGCY, NAMI, SAG, SUNH,
    WCT, ZENA, ZJK
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • AHH commences public offering of 7,000,000 shares of its common stock
    • AMTB announces launch of Class A Voting common stock offering
    • BIVI Announces Closing of Public Offering
    • MDXH Launch of Offering of Ordinary Shares – $40.0 million of ordinary shares
    • TCBX: Up to 3,259,445 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Conversion of Shares of Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series B Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock, or Non-Voting Common Stock or Upon Exercise of Warrants
  • Notes Priced:
    • POST Announces Pricing of Senior Notes Offering
    • VSAT Announces Successful Closing of Upsized Offering of $1,975 Million of Senior Secured Notes
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ARMN files mixed shelf securities offering
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • PGY to offer $125 million aggregate principal amount of exchangeable senior notes due 2029
    • ORCL FILES FOR OFFERING OF $1.5 BLN 4.200% NOTES DUE 2029 — OFFERING OF $1.75 BLN 4.700% NOTES DUE 2034, $1.75 BLN 5.375% NOTES DUE 2054 —  OFFERING OF $1.25 BLN 5.500% NOTES DUE 2064
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:

  • Movers Up: MU +12.80%, NRG +6.5%, WDC +4.8%, AOUT +3.7%, STX +2.4%, ZETA +2%
  • Movers Down: PGY -16.1%, CNXC -13.7%, FUL -9.6%, WS -5.3%, AHH -4.7%, 

News After The Close :

    • OpenAI removing non-profit control, giving CEO equity (Reuters)
    • OpenAI CTO Mira Murati leaving the company. (Bloomberg)
    • Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler said will support additional rate cuts as long as inflation continues to drop.
    • AIR signs an extension with Singapore Airlines.
    • The House of Representatives approves a three-month government funding bill, averting a government shutdown. (The Hill)
    • PFE announces that it is voluntarily withdrawing all lots of OXBRYTA (voxelotor) for the treatment of sickle cell disease (SCD) at this time, in all markets where it is approved.
    • TAN announces restructuring and transformation program due to high inventories and challenging market environment
    • NRG raises FY24 adjusted EBITDA and FCFbG guidance
    • X requesting restoration of service in Brazil. (Reuters)
    • 10-Q or 10-K Delays – None of note.
    • NASDAQ Delisting Notice – None of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.

    • AOUT approves repurchase of up to $10 mln of its common stock; ends September 30, 2025 

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

    • OMCL appoints Nnamdi Njoku as COO, effective October 7
    • Julie Rosen, President, Retail of Bath & Body Works (BBWI), steps down, position eliminated; reaffirms Q3 and FY25 guidance.
    • Din Brands (DIN) IHOP President Jay Johns to retire, effective January 6, 2025

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: GE PM SRE INVH PSEC GTY NAT
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: JCI AHH BFC MERC

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 +44  NASDAQ 100 +292 Dow Jones +170 Russell 2000 +31.55. Asia and Europe are higher. VIX Futures are at 17.60 from 17.62  yesterday while Bonds are at 3.766% from 3.762% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher for a second day. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $64,376 from $63,602 higher by 1.73% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities and Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Financials and Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Financials, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Real Estate, Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Utilities,  Real Estate, Technology, Financials, Consumer Defensive and  Communication Services of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, Utilities and Real Estate note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Utilities, Financials, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive and Healthcare of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: COST MTN
  • Friday Before The Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  JBL +0.08, SNX +0.06 and ACN +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: KMX
  • Misses:  None of note.
  • Still to Report: 

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Weekly Update With Both Daily and Weekly Stats:  Markets have improved nicely in the last week. The Daily A/D Line has made a new high while the S&P 500 just made a new high Thursday and is now coming off that high.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: NCNA +19.7%, MU +15.1%, ENGN +11.4%, NRG +7.8%, WDC +7.4%, QH +6.8%, ACN +6.8%, ZETA +6%, DEO +5.4%, SILA +4.9%, CNTA +4.7%, ARMN +4.6%, LRCX +4.6%, KMX +4.1%, AOUT +3.7%, OPT +3.7%, CLNE +3.6%, STX +3.4%, MRVL +3%, PHAR +3%, INTC +2.9%, NXPI +2.3%, OPRT +2.3%, BBVA +2.3%, AMD +2.2%, WCC +2.1%, TXN +2%, ICL +2%, LSPD +2%
  • Gap Down: PGY -14.8%, CNXC -12.4%, FUL -9%, AHH -8.1%, JEF -3.3%, AMTB -2.6%, POET -2.6%, WVE -2%

Insider Action: No names see Insider buying with dumb short selling. TTSH sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Pre-Market Movers: Check back as has been posted later recently. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: China Politburo Supercharges Stimulus. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Wall Street set for a boost on rate cut bets, China. (Bloomberg)
  • Hurricane Helene moves to a Category 2. (CNBC)
  • Swiss Central Bank cuts rates for a third time. (CNBC)
  • NYC Mayor Eric Adams indicted. (Bloomberg)
  • Southwest (LUV) ups summer revenue estimate and increases buyback. (CNBC)
  • Wealthion: Economic Risks the U.S. and world cannot ignore. (Podcast)
  • NYT Daily:  Holding patients against their will. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • August Durable Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and  expected to fall to -2.90% from 9.90. 
  • The last GDP Estimate for Q2 is due out also at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to stay at 3.0%. 
  • August Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to improve to 1.0% from -5.50%. 
  • Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
  • The President and Vice President have lunch at noon.
  • Press Briefing at 12:30 p.m. with Press Secretary Jean-Pierre and the head of FEMA regarding upcoming hurricane.
  • President Biden meets with Ukraine President Zelensky at 1:45 p.m. EDT.
  • Later in the day, President Biden and the Vice President speak in the Rose Garden on Gun Violence at 4:45 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers: 

  • Federal Reserve Boston President Susan Collins speaks at 9:10 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 9:15 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 9:20 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 9:25 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaks at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks at 10:30 a.m. EDT and then again at 6:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Moves from 97% of the moving averages being positive to 86%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • Goldman Sachs Global Sustainability Forum
      • KBC Securities Life Sciences Conference
      • Noble Capital Basic Industries Equity Conference
      • TD Cowen Novel Mechanisms in Neuropsychiatry Virtual Summit
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Shareholder Meetings: AGR, LSB, LW, SANW, SAR, ZCAR 
    • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BAP, INTU, JBL, LUV, MURA, RZLV, WCC 
    • Update: None of note.
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation:
      • BGNE: PDUFA Decision on Tislelizumab + chemo
      • BMY: PDUFA Decision on OPDIVO
      • KRTX PRTC ZLAB: Data Presentation for KarXT
      • MRK: PDUFA Decision on KEYTRUDA
    • Company Event:
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • Atlantic Council Roundtable
      • Congress for the European Academy of Dermatology & Venereology
      • Epilepsy Foundation Pipeline Conference
      • Gabelli Funds’ PFAS Symposium
      • International Ultrasonics Symposium
      • MASH Drug Development Summit
      • MEDITECH LIVE24 Conferenceo
      • MicroLED Connect
      • MINExpo INTERNATIONAL

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades:  MD BILI

Downgrades: TNL SONO NTRS HSY GEHC