New York Federal Reserve Research Note – Looks at DSGE Models.

Corporate Actions

IPOs on deck: None of note.

IPOs Filed:  None of note this morning.

Secondaries on deck:  None of note.

Notes Priced:   None of note.

Common Stock filings: CVM of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings filed: CAH of note.

Convertible Offering Files:   PFPT of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close: 

Beat:

TOL +0.19, LZB +0.08, URBN +0.03, JKHY +0.02, CREE +0.01 of note.

Missed:

 NDSN (0.21), SCSC (0.11) of note.

Still to Report: AMCR of note.

News After The Close: (In time order after the close)

Former Lumber Liquidators (LL) CEO Thomas Sullivan’s F9 Investments takes a 5.96% stake in Lumber Liquidators.

Solar Edge (SEDG) names Uri Bechor as Chief Operating Officer.

Cardinal Health (CAH) updates 10-K to reflect opioid lawsuit update.

Walmart (WMT) sues Tesla (TSLA) after solar panels caught fire on the top of seven stores.

Stock Repurchase:  NRZ PLXS .

Dividend Increase: of note.

Early Morning Gap Up/Down: (>4% or <-4%)

Gap Higher: TGT +12%, LOW +10%, PDD +9%, FANH +7%. 

Gap Lower: NDSN -6%, CREE -4%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.  

U.S. futures: S&P +16  Dow Jones +130  NDX +52  and Russell 2000 +9.04 with fair values higher cutting into gains on the open. Asia mixed and Europe higher, click through for details by country.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $130.50 from $130.63 with yields at 1.583% from 1.565% . Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Conglomerates.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Financials, Healthcare , Materials and Technology of note.

One Month Winners: Conglomerates.

Three Month Winners: Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Goods.

Six Month Winners: Conglomerates, Utilities, Consumer Goods.Technology and Services.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities and Technology.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Technology, Services and Industrials.

Hourly Action This  Week:

Updated through Monday close.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close: SNPS SPLK KEYS HTHT ZAYO WUBA LB JWN PSTG QADA of  note.

Thursday Before The Open: CM HRL TTC BJ DKS LX PLCE FLWS BITA UXN HWLP FLY of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note  

Beat: 

 TGT +0.20, LOW +0.15, PDD +0.15, KLXE +0.08, BZUN +0.04, PLCE +0.01  of note.

Flat:   of note.

Missed:

MSGN (0.09), RY (0.08) of note.

 Yet to Report: ADI

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story:  

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg)

For the first time, President Trump acknowledges that trade dispute with China could lead to recession. (The Washington Post)

President Trump believes can move on tax cuts without Congressional approval. (NYT)

President Trump cancels trip to Denmark as they will not sell the U.S. its stake in Greenland. (NYT)

U.S. and Japan could lead to a partial trade deal. (FT)

Alibaba (BABA) postpones Hong Kong IPO due to protests sending a strong message to Hong Kong leaders. (Reuters)

U.S. blacklists 20% of Huawei global R&D centers. (Nikkei)

Data Points

Stocks saw weakness on Tuesday.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line moved to cash on the close of 8/5. Updated through 8/20/19 close. Year to date model up 7.48% on the S&P 500. 3 buy signals and 3 cash signals in 2019. The recent buy lost -1.23%. Cash worked and now we are close to a buy again.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD  64.5% (+1.5% week over week) of stocks are higher and 35.5% are lower. Updated 8/16/19 close with next update on 8/23/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through Tuesday’s close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research

The Value Lines may be accessed via Bloomberg. For a free trial if you are a Bloomberg user go to APPS CS:ERLA

Economic & Related:

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications came in at a drop of -0.9% week over week.

July Existing Home Sales are released at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 5.40 million from 5.27 million.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

The latest FOMC Minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m EDT from the latest meeting where they cut interest rates.

Geopolitical:

President Trump will deliver remarks to the American Veterans 75th National Convention.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:   

Company Analyst Meetings and Conference Calls: TELNY (conference call)

Sellside Conferences: Raymond James SMID Conference. Longbow Research Investors Conference.

Industry Conferences: Gamescon 2019. Open Source Summit 2019.

M&A Activity:

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) buys Mayasa Auto, no terms.

Descartes (DSGX) buys BestTransport.com for $11.2 million.

DXC Technology (DXC) to buy Syscom, no terms.

Upgrades & Downgrades: