CAPIS Morning Note – 6/5/19 Indexes Reverse Break Of Some Major Moving Averages

Market Moving Stat: ADP Payroll just came in at 27,000 with an estimate of 170,000. Watch to see how stocks handle this number. Corporate Actions IPOs on deck for This Week:  We now head into summer trading for IPOs. IPOs on deck for Today:  None of note. Secondaries on deck: EQH KMPR OPRX  SIEN NWN…

Market Moving Stat: ADP Payroll just came in at 27,000 with an estimate of 170,000. Watch to see how stocks handle this number.

Corporate Actions

IPOs on deck for This Week:  We now head into summer trading for IPOs.

IPOs on deck for Today:  None of note.

Secondaries on deck: EQH KMPR OPRX  SIEN NWN  of note.

Notes Priced: NMFC of note.

Other Filings of Note:   ALTR files mixed shelf offering.  DSGX NWNKMPR QTWO EQH  files common stock offering.   ALTR files senior notes.  QTWO files convertible offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat:  GME +0.10, GWRE +0.10, AMBA +0.07, NX +0.07, CRM +0.05, PVTL +0.02 of note.

Flat: none

Missed:  HQY (0.03)

Positive Guidance: AMBA HQY 

Lower Guidance: GWRE GME NX

Still To Report: 

News After The Close:

Revision to 2019 global growth from The World Bank. Now 2.6% from 2.9%.  Weak trade the reason.

April Global Semiconductor  Sales came in at $32.1 billion, down 14.6% year over year reports the Semiconductor Industry Association.

President & COO Thomas McDonough of Tanger Factory (SKT) will retire at the end of 2019.

L3 (LLL) wins $500 million Air Force contract.

Stock Repurchase: of note.

Dividend Increase: UNH of note.

Index Changes: 

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures on the S&P 500 rose into the ADP Payroll number at 8:15 a.m. EDT but have given up 30% of gains.

U.S. futures: S&P +10.50, Dow Jones +100 NDX +34  and Russell 2000 +4.70 with fair values LOWER ADDING TO GAINS. Asia  and Europe higher, click through for details by country.

Gold and silver higher and copper lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is flat vs Euro, flat vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price $126.98 from $127.11 from with yields higher since Tuesday morning with the yield at 2.116% from 2.11%. Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Tuesday:  All lead by Technology. Services and Industrials.

Weakest Sectors Tuesday:  None of note.

One Month Winners: Utilities.

Three Month Winners:  Utilities, Consumer Goods and Financials.

Six Month Winners: Utilities, Conglomerates, Industrials, Technology and Services.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Healthcare and Services.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials, Utilities, Technology and Financials.

Hourly Action This  Week:

Through Tuesday 5 hours are positive and 2 are negative. 3:00-4:00 higher for week.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)


Thursday Before The Open:  SJM CIEN SAIC MIK HOME SIG KIRK of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note 

Beat:  CPB +0.09, GIII +0.03, SCWX +0.03 of note.

Flat: None of note.

Missed: None of note

Still To Report:  AEO, BF.B, VRA of note.

Rags & Mags:Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top Story: World Trade off to worst start since 2009. (Bloomberg)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg)

IMF notes that trade tensions could impact China significantly. (CNBC)

Federal Reserve rate cut is coming. (CNBC)

China clamps down on U.S. companies. First, Fedex (FDX) and now Ford (F). (Bloomberg)

The Wall Street Journal Heard On The Street Column positive on smaller health insurance companies like CNC MOH WCG. (WSJ)

Data Points

Yesterday we noted “darkest before the dawn?” and it appears that way right now.

The adline/decline line remains troubling despite the pop.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) is no longer invested  and moved to cash on May 8th close. For a move to cash from buy, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row below -200. For now, the best offense is a good defense. Ample notice of the current weakness was given.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD 64% (-12% week over week) of stocks are higher and 36% are lower. Updated 5/31/19 close with next update on 6/7/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range.

All indexes were above resistance yesterday. Markets had a relief rally.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research

The Value Lines may be accessed via Bloomberg. For a free trial if you are a Bloomberg user go to APPS CS:ERLA

Economic & Related:

After the close, API Petroleum Institute Weekly Data came in with a build of 3.545 million barrels of Crude Oil and Gasoline had a build of 2.696 million barrels.

May ADP Employment Index is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 170,000 from 275, 000. Came in at 27,000 (10% of prior month).

May ISM Non-Manufacturing is expected to fall to 55.4 from 55.5.


President Trump concludes his trip to the United Kingdom and continues on to Ireland.

June Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT. 

Federal Reserve Dallas President Robert Kaplan interviewed on Bloomberg Radio at 7:35 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:  

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: PRU PLXS IFF SHW (investor day) COST (monthly sales call) BIIB (ALS pipeline call)

Sellside Conferences:  Credit Suisse Annual Communications Conference. Needham Annual Automotive Tech Day.  Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference. Baird Global Consumer, Technology and Services Conference. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Technology Conference. Credit Suisse Global Energy Conference. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Energy Credit Conference. Deutsche Bank Industrials Conference.

Industry Conferences: American Society of Clinical Oncologist (ASCO) continues through today. Apple Worldwide Developers Conference. NAREIT Investor Conference.  LD Micro Invitational Conference.

M&A Activity

Newell Brands (NWL) sells The United States  Playing Card Company to Cartamundi Group, no terms.

Teledyne (TDY) buys gas and flame detection business of 3M (MMM) for $230 million in cash.

Upgrades & Downgrades


Early Morning Gap Up/Down:

Gap Higher: RWLK +176%, AMBA +15%, TIVO +8%, SPN +5%, CRM +5%,

Gap Lower: GME -28%, PVTL -27%, NWL -8%, GWRE -5%, ALTR -5%,