CAPIS Morning Note – 12/3/20: Hospitalizations From Covid-19 Top 100,000, Dollar Weak Again

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Trend is higher however. Too many strategists are calling for a pullback so we will go higher for now. Covid-19 Statistics:  Total Cases 13,711,151 from 13,515,234 Deaths 264,522 from…

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Trend is higher however. Too many strategists are calling for a pullback so we will go higher for now.

Covid-19 Statistics: 

Total Cases 13,711,151 from 13,515,234

Deaths 264,522 from 261,789

New Tests 1,444,783 from 1,380,784

New Cases 195,695 from 176,751 with positivity rate of 13.5% (up 0.7)

Daily Deaths 2,733

Current Hospitalizations 100,226 from 98,691

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced: TWST OMI XPOSH  CDXS PROG DADA ARRY of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings: VERI GLNG CDXAS of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: SWX CMO BRMK of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beats: PVH +1.09, GES +0.53, SPWH +0.24, ESTC +0.17, FIVE +0.16, ZS +0.08, CRWD +0.08, OKTA +0.05, SNPS +0.01, DSGX +0.01

Flat:  none

Misses: SMTC +0.01, SNOW (0.75), SPLK (0.16)

News After The Close:

UnitedHealth (UNH) President Sir Andrew Witty returns following an 8 month leave of absence.

Amazon (AMZN) may buy Wondery, podcast startup per WSJ.

Costco (COST) November sales up +13.4% versus prior month $14.4%.

XPO Logistics (XPO) to spinoff its logistics segment unit.

NASDAQ (NDAQ) November Options data 242 million contracts versus 222 million in October and 136 million in November 2019.

U.S. Government buys another 650,000 doses from Eli Lilly (LLY) of bamlanivimab for $812.5 million.

VEREIT (VER) sees November rent collection at 97%.

House passes bill to put tighter standards on Chines listed U.S. companies like Alibaba (BABA) that is already audited by major U.S. accounting firm. Trump to sign the bill.

Dividend Increase: FIZZ HOFT  SPWH SYK WRI (special) 

Raises Guidance:  OKTA  CRWD ZS SNPS  PVH SMTC

Lowers Guidance: SPLK

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: SIGI

Hourly Action: 12/1 Close Updated. Yesterday saw 62% of the hours positive.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500  +0.51   Dow Jones Industrial Average +20    NASDAQ +22    Russell 2000 +0.97 . Fair values are lower.  Asia and Europe mixed. VIX is at 22.88 from 22.09 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 20.77 from 20.57  and the three month futures at 24.49 from 24.33.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $137.55 from $137.53 with the yield at 0.943% from 0.92%.

Positive Sectors On Wednesday: Energy, Communication Services and Financials of note.

Negative Sectors On Wednesday: Real Estate, Consumer Defensive and Consumer Cyclical of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: DOCU, MRVL, COO, ULTA, RH, OLLI, SAIC, MDLA, CLDR, PD of note.

Friday Before the Open: BIG, GCO of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: SIG +0.77, DG +0.32, TD +0.31, MIK +0.27, MEI +0.21, SCWX +0.03, DCI +0.03, GMS +0.02, AZEK +0.02

Flat: none

Misses: none

Still to Report: CM, CBRL, KR

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 12/2 Close. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

WDR +48%, LIZI +46%, OMER +23%, CRWD +13%, ZS +11%, ESTC +11%, OKTA +8%, PROG +5%, FIZZ +4%, CLNY +4%

Gap Down:

SPLK -21%, VERI -16%, GLNG -7%, GHLD -6%, CDXS -5%, SNOW -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – TSLA CRWS SNOW EXPR. (CNBC)

5 things to know before the market opens. (CNBC)

Biggest analyst calls of the day. (CNBC Pro)

Coronavirus Update: Los Angeles and 100,000 Hospitalizations. (CNBC)

U.S. tops 100,000 Covid-19 hospitalizations. (CNBC)

Los Angeles puts in place a stay at home order as Covid-19 cases rise. (Bloomberg)

House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer back a $908 billion bipartisan stimulus plan but Senate Majority Leader McConnell does not. (The Washington Post)

Top Republicans say they back President Trump in 2024. (Politico)

White House Coronavirus Task Force says that ANYONE who celebrated Thanksgiving outside of their house should assume they are infected and quarantine. (ABC News)

U.S. Labor Board accuses Google (GOOGL) of spying on employees. (CNBC)

OPEC to increase production by 500,000 barrels a day. (WSJ)

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 12/2 close. Overall confidence rose from 90% to 93%.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 12/2 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. Volatility cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting


Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST. Came in at 712,000 lower than expected which supports a recovering economy.

November Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 56.3% from 56.6%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump will present the Medal of Freedom to Lou Holtz 11:30am EST Oval Office.

The president participates in a signing ceremony for H.R. 5901, the Information Technology Modernization Centers of Excellence Program Act and an Executive Order Promoting Responsible Use of Artificial Intelligence in Government 2:00pm EST Oval Office.

Federal Reserve Governor Quarles to speak at 10:00 a.m. EST.

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

GHC CENT BADFF NCR  (Investor Day)  GALT CX (Update) ISBC (Conference Call) EXN (Webinar)

Sellside Conferences: Credit Suisse Technology Conference (11/30-12/3)   Morgan Stanley Global Consumer and Retail Conference (12/1-12/3) Piper Sandler Annual Healthcare Conference (12/1-12/3) Evercore ISI HealthCONx Conference (12/1-12/3) Credit Suisse Industrial Conference (12/2-12/4) Goldman Sachs Annual Automotive Conference (12/3-12/4)

Industry Conferences: NASDAQ Investor Conference (12/1-12/4)


Macquarie Group to buy Waddell & Reed (WDR) for $25 a share.

Upgrades & Downgrades:  Another busy day for both upgrades and downgrades. Stifel went crazy on upgrades of biotechs and pharmaceuticals.