CAPIS Morning Note – 11/18/22: Stocks Rebound After Selling Last Two Days. Is 4000 On The S&P 500 In Reach Today As We Have Options Expiration?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 3946.36 (lower by -0.31%) from Wednesday at 3958.79 (lower by -0.83%).  The overnight high of 3987.25 was hit at 7:15 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3943.50 at 3:20 a.m. EDT, a range of 44 points high to low which is around the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 3946.36 (lower by -0.31%) from Wednesday at 3958.79 (lower by -0.83%).  The overnight high of 3987.25 was hit at 7:15 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3943.50 at 3:20 a.m. EDT, a range of 44 points high to low which is around the recent range of 45.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was at the high, up 30.75 points which is 0.78%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: UGI +1.18, GPS +0.71, STNE +0.51, AMAT +0.28, ROST +0.19, KEYS +0.15, POST +0.15, PANW +0.14, WWD +0.10, ESE +0.05, BRBR +0.02, GLOB +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: DLB (0.17), FTCH (0.04), WSM (0.02).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Grindr (GRND) begins trading on NYSE today after completing business combination with Tiga Acquisition Corp. (TINV).
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • GTHX: Prices offering of 7.7 million shares of common stock at $6.50 per share.
    • LAUR: Announces the Pricing of an Underwritten Public Offering by Selling Stockholders of 32,842,183 shares at $9.75 per share.
    • RAPT: Prices offering of 4,054,055 shares of common stock at $18.50 per share.
    • VERX: Stock slides on pricing 1.5 million stock offering at $15.15 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AVCT: Filed Form S-3.. 10,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • CRKN: Filed Form S-3.. 53,548,767 Shares.
    • CSWC: Closes Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • GTHX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Cowen and RJ bookmanagers)
    • QFIN: Announced the launch of its global offering of 5,540,000 Class A ordinary shares of the Company, which comprises a Hong Kong public offering of initially 560,000 Class A ordinary shares commencing today and an international offering of initially 4,980,000 Class A ordinary shares commencing today.
    • RAPT: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. $75 million of its common stock. (JPM, Evercore, Guggenheim and Cantor bookmanager)
    • TFFP: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Warrants. (Jones bookmanager)
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • VERX: Proposed Public Offering of Class A Common Stock by Selling Stockholder. 1.5Million. (GS Underwriter)
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • TBLT: Announces Closing of $7.5 Million Private Placement Priced At-The-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • LKCO: Filed Form F-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • MET: S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • MIR: Filed Form S-3.. $1,000,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • ENV: Closing of Convertible Notes Offering.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up:ISEE +20%,  CLFD +16%, ROST +14%, STNE +10%, GPS +8%, PANW +5%, LPRO +4%.
    • Trading Down: GTHX -18%, FTCH -10%, WSM -9%, DLB -9%, RAPT -8%, VERX -6%, INO -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:  LYV, GPS, ROST, PANW, AMAT, KEYS, STNE (CNBC).
    • Amazon (AMZN) CEO: Layoffs Will Continue Into Next Year. (CNBC)
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) stock rallies on yet another beat-and-raise quarter. (MarketWatch)
    • Gap (GPS) beats on third-quarter revenue, but tempers expectations for the holiday season. (CNBC)
    • ‘This situation is unprecedented’: 10 crazy things detailed in FTX’s bankruptcy filing. (MarketWatch). Note we published from the original source yesterday on our Twitter account, Bullet86. 
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Amedisys (AMED) Announces CEO Departure.
    • Ampio Pharmaceuticals (AMPE) Announces NYSE American Removal of Trading Suspension.
    • Cloopen (RAAS) Receives NYSE’s Grant of Extension Regarding Delayed Filing of 2021 Annual Report.
    • DigitalOcean (DOCN) appoints Matt Steinfort as CFO.
    • Gaotu Techedu (GOTU) Announces Receipt of NYSE Non-compliance Letter Regarding ADS Trading Price.
    • HF Foods (HFFG) Announces Receipt Of Additional Non-Compliance Letter From Nasdaq And Extension Of Stay Of Delisting Proceedings Until January 31, 2023.
    • Ideanomics (IDEX) receives NASDAQ extension to comply with Bid Price Rule and secures additional funding to increase EV and charging sales in the United States and Europe
    • KeyCorp (KEY) announces retirement of Chief Financial Officer, Donald R. Kimble and names Chief Strategy Officer, Clark H.I. Khayat, as successor.
    • Orthofix and SeaSpine (OFIX) Announce John Bostjancic to Serve as CFO for Combined Company Post Closing.
    • Rackspace Technology (RXT) announces appointment of Bobby Molu as CFO.
    • Rogers (ROG) Announces Leadership Transition.
    • Visa (V) says Ryan McInerney will replace Al Kelly as its next CEO. (WSJ)
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Canada Goose (GOOS) Launches Share Repurchase Program of 5,421,685 subordinate voting shares.
    • Open Lending (LPRO) Board of Directors Authorizes $75 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Primerica (PRI) authorizes a $375 million share repurchase program.
    • Riverview Bancorp, Inc. (RVSB) Announces Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Xenia Hotels (XHR) authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $100 million of outstanding common shares. (see Dividends too)
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Agilent (A) raises dividend by 7%. (MarketWatch)
    • Aecom Tech (ACM) increases its quarterly dividend 20% to $0.18 per share.
    • Brown-Forman Corp (BFB) increases its quarterly dividend 9% to $0.2055 per share.
    • C.H. Robinson (CHRW) increases its quarterly dividend 11% to $0.61 per share.
    • Dillard’s, Inc. (DDS) Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend of $0.20 per Share and Special Dividend of $15.00 Per Share.
    • SWKS Goes ex div on Monday for $0.62.
    • KeyCorp (KEY) increases quarterly dividend 5% to $0.205 per share.
    • Xenia Hotels (XHR) Declares Dividend For Fourth Quarter 2022

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +27, Dow Jones +164,  NASDAQ +101, and Russell 2000 +14. (as of 8:06 a.m. EDT). Europe higher and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 24.60 from 25.37 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 23.93 from 24.11 yesterday. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.799% from 3.723% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $16,750 from $16,551 yesterday morning and is higher by +0.54% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Basic Materials, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Major U.S. stocks indexes recovered earlier losses but finished in the red Thursday.  The benchmark S&P 500 lost 0.3%. The blue-chip Dow Industrials slipped about 8 points, or less than 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%.  Hopes for less aggressive monetary policy were dashed by comments from a Federal Reserve official.  The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 3.774% from 3.693% late Wednesday. (WSJ)

 Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: SJM, J, WEBR of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: JD +1.81, ATKR +0.44, TWST +0.22, FL +0.15, SPB +0.14, BKE +0.05.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ROST, KEYS, PANW, WWD, CLFD, ATKR, FL of note.
  • Negative Guidance: STNE, DLB, UGI, TWST of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ISEE +20%, STNE +19%, ROST +18%, CLFD +14%, PANW +8%, MGNX +7%, GPS +7%, EVH +6%, PRVB +5%, ORMP +4%, AMAT +4%, LPRO +4%.
  • Gap Down: SCLX -30%, GTHX -22%, FTCH -11%, RAPT -10%, VERX -9%, WSM -5%, DLB -5%, MIR -4%.

Insider Action: RYAN sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  TMCI, CRSR sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: FL JD GPS WSM ROST PANW AMAT FTCH. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Elon Musk’s ultimatums spark exodus of workers, calling into question Twitter’s future. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  Same as lead story. (Bloomberg)
  • Traces of explosives found at Russian pipeline leak says Sweden. (CNBC)
  • Qatar bans beer at their 8 World Cup stadiums, in a dramatic reversal, bringing into question Budweiser’s (BUD) $75 million sponsorship. (CNBC)
  • Retailers’ earnings show rampant discounting and consumers are waiting to pounce. (Yahoo)
  • Crypto firm Multicoin expects fallout from FTX debacle wiping out many trading firms. (CNBC)
  • This was supposed to be a banner year for company buybacks. What happened, because it has come up short? (WSJ)

Moving Average Update:

  • The song score remains the same….65%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks and meets with business and labor leaders; The Secretary of the Treasury attends, 1:30 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:45 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • ECB Banking Congress holds its 32nd meeting.
  • October Existing Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 4.30 million from 4.71 million.
  • October Leading Economic Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. as well and is expected to remain at -0.4%.
  • Baker Hughs Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Boston President Susan M. Collins Speaks 8:40 a.m. EST
  • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 1:45 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Cider Security.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
  • Company Meetings: EL, SYY
  • Fireside Chat: SES.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ACGL, BLI, HON
    • Donaldson (DCI) holds its analyst meeting and is a Type 1 Short Squeeze.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: