CAPIS Morning Note – 11/18/20: Pfizer Ups Efficacy to 95%, Boeing Clears 737 Max And Target Crushes Earnings

Stat of the Day: Gas Buddy finds only 35% of Americans to travel on the road for Thanksgiving down from 65%. Breaking News: Bitcoin clear $18,000 for first time since 2017. Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness…

Stat of the Day: Gas Buddy finds only 35% of Americans to travel on the road for Thanksgiving down from 65%.

Breaking News: Bitcoin clear $18,000 for first time since 2017.

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Expect volatility to continue post election until the President recognizes the President-Elect. Yesterday was limited replay of last Monday. Since then, my Recovery Index sees only 24 of 66 names in the index are above last Monday’s high. The conclusion: buy the rumor and sell the news.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 11,202,899 from 11,047,064

Recovered This has stopped reporting (

Deaths 239,784 from 238,217

New Tests 1,501,429 from 1,479,298

New Cases 155,835 from 148,832 with positivity rate +10.3% (up 0.3%)

Daily Deaths 1,567

Current Hospitalizations 76,823 from 73,014

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: None of note.

Secondaries Priced: KOD NCLH REZI CCL  of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings:  BYSI NCLH CAMT SPG of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: HMHC of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: TRMK of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close on Yesterday:

Beats: LZB +0.35, NIO +0.16, VREX +0.06

Flat: none

Misses: none

News After The Close:

Senator Chuck Grassley (R- IA) who is 87 tests positive for Covid-19 killing the Shelton vote to Federal Reserve.

Polaris (PII) CEO to step down.

President Trump fires Department of Homeland Security Cyber Chief Chris Krebs because he said elections were extremely fair and well run.

Dividend Increase: RGLD

Raises Guidance:

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: MDRX

Hourly Action:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +9  Dow Jones Industrial Average +114 NASDAQ +17  Russell 2000 +6.39 . Fair values are lower.  Asia higher ex Nikkei and Europe higher. VIX is at 23.7 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 22.71 and the three month futures at 25.38.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.36 from $138.20 with the yield at 0.855% from 0.875% .

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Energy and Consumer Cyclicals of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday:  Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: NVDA, ZTO, CPRT, KEYS, BILI, PAGS, NUAN, SQM, LB, UGI of note.

Thursday Before The Open: NTES, CPB, ATHM, WB, BERY, BJ, MMS, SINA, CSIQ, BRC, M, ATKR of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: TGT +1.18, KC +1.07, TJX +0.32, LOW +0.02, BV +0.01

Flat:  none

Misses: AVYA (0.83), SR (0.04)

Still to Report: none

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/17 Close. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

KZIA +15.9%, VREX +7.4%, LZB +6.1%, HMHC +5.6%, CLLS +5.6%, BNTX +5.5%, FTI +5.1%, CPA +4.7%

Gap Down:

NCLH -6.3%, LOW -6.3%, STKL -5%, KC -4.9%, PII -4.1%, PII -3.4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves TGT LOW BA PFE AAPL. (CNBC)

Biggest Analyst Calls . (CNBC)

Coronavirus Update: Biden Advisor says getting more concerned over lack of a transition. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

Immunity to Covid-19 could last years. (NY Times)

State update sees 37 states with businesses open and 13 with partial closures with4 states having stay at home advisories. (NYT)

Senate needs Florida Senator Rick Scott out of quarantine to confirm Judy Shelton as a Federal Reserve Governor which was delayed yesterday. (Bloomberg)

Michigan sees Wayne County confirm election results almost immediately after President Trump tweeted that Wayne County would delay. Vote by Michigan to confirm state results next Monday. (NY Times)

FAA approves Boeing (BA) 737 Max to fly again. (CNBC)

Pfizer (PFE) now says their vaccine goes to 95% effectiveness topping Moderna (MRNA) by 0.5%. (CNBC)

Apple (AAPL) cuts APP store commission to 15% from 30%. (CNBC)

Stock Index Trading & Key Moving Averages:

Current through 11/17 close. All above which is nirvana.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/17 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting


Weekly API Petroleum Institute data saw Crude Oil build by +4.17 million barrels while Gasoline built by 255,000.

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications were out at 7:00 a.m. EDT and -0.3% week over week.

October Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 1,445,000 from 1,415,000. Came in at 1,530,000.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump has no public events scheduled. 

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

FFIV TLND HSKA LRN SASR  (Investor and/or Analyst Day) TENX (R&D Day) BSGM AKER  (Update)

Sellside Conferences:  Citi FinTech Conference (11/16-11/19) Stephens Annual Investment Conference (11/16-11/20) Stifel Global Healthcare Conference (11/16-11/18)  Goldman Sachs Global Metals & Mining Conference 2010 (11/18-11/19) Bank of America Consumer Equities Conference (11/18-11/19) RBC Capital Markets Midstream Energy Conference (11/18-11/19). Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference (11/18-11/19) Deutsche Bank ADR Conference (11/18-11/19)

Industry Conferences: NAREIT Annual Investor Conference (11/17-11/20)


Recommendations By Sellside Firms: Upgrades and Downgrades From Today