CAPIS Morning Note – 11/11/22: The Day After The Best Move On The S&P 500 Since 2020, Can We Clear 4000?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 3956.37 (higher by 5.54%) from Wednesday at 3748.57 (lower by -2.08%).  The overnight high of 3997.50 was hit at 3:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3957.50 at 10:10 p.m. EDT, a range of 40 points high to low which is below the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 3956.37 (higher by 5.54%) from Wednesday at 3748.57 (lower by -2.08%).  The overnight high of 3997.50 was hit at 3:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3957.50 at 10:10 p.m. EDT, a range of 40 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45.  At 7:20 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was higher by 18.50 points at 3979.50 which is 0.47%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: BZH +0.76, MTTR +0.05, AGTI +0.01, BBDC +0.01, DOCS +0.01, FLO +0.01, INDI +0.01, MCW +0.01.
  • Flat: FIGS +0.00, LZ +0.00.
  • Misses: DUOL (0.39), EDR (0.36), LFG (0.26), KDNY (0.22), EXFY (0.19), SWIR (0.17), COMP (0.14), TOST (0.08), CDRE (0.06), LAW (0.03), SMRT (0.02), BLND (0.02), POSH (0.02), RYAN (0.01), VTEX (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • DV: Prices secondary offering of 10.0 million shares of common stock of $26.40 per share.
    • KNSL: Prices offering of 155,000 shares of common stock for net proceeds of $48.4 million.
    • REXR: Prices offering of 11.5 million shares of common stock at $56.00 per share.
    • RLYB: Pricing of $50 Million Public Offering.. Priced @$6.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AEE: Enters equity distribution agreement.
    • APRN: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $30,000,000 Class A Common Stock.
    • BIVI: Filed Form S-1.. Common Stock Offering.
    • KNSL: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. 155,000 shares of common stock.  JPM Underwriter
    • KSCP: Filed Form S-1.. 13,690,099 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • MDWD: Filed Form F-1.. 28,153,058 Ordinary Shares.
    • NI: Discloses update to equity distribution agreement for $450 million in common stock sales.
    • PNM: Enters equity distribution agreement.
    • REXR: Public Offering of 11,500,000 Shares of Common Stock.. GS, BAC, JPM and Mizuho bookmanagers
    • TWO: Entered into 11 million share equity distribution agreement with JMP Securities.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DV: Launches 10 million share offering by selling shareholder Providence.
    • EDR: Files for 2,305,794 common stock offering by selling stockholders.
    • MAXN: Filed Form F-3.. 32,688,454 Ordinary Shares by selling stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ARIS: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • LIAN: Filed Form S-3.. $500 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • LRMR: Filed Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • RNXT: Filed Form S-3.. $50 Million Mixed Shelf – Primary Offering of 2,786,995 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Warrants.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • TEN: Extension of Redemption Date for 5% Senior Notes due 2024 and 5.0% Senior Notes due 2026.
    • STNG: Announces Notice of Redemption of 3.00% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2025.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: DOCS +15%, LZ +15%, MTTR +11%, SMRT +10%, TOST +7%, PBYI +6%, EDR +6%, BZH +5%, ITUB +4%.
    • Trading Down: TTCF -23%, EXFY -7%, COMP -6%, DUOL -6%, DV -6%, INDI -5%, FLO -5%, FIGS -4%, TWO -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Nasdaq 100 Index soars 7.5% in biggest gain since March 2020.
    • Carl Icahn, in a CNBC interview, says he still thinks we are in a bear market despite Thursday’s rally. (CNBC)
    • Elon Musk just told Twitter employees he’s not sure how much run rate the company has and “bankruptcy isn’t out of the question.” — (platformer)
    • A Federal Judge in Texas has ruled that President Joe Biden’s plan to cancel hundreds of billions of dollars in student loan debt was unconstitutional and must be vacated. (SM)
    • BlockFi says it can no longer operate its business as usual; pausing client withdrawals — (THE BLOCK)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • American Intl (AIG) announces five-year employment agreement with Peter Zaffino, CEO.
    • Autoscope Technologies Corporation (AATC) Announces the Resignation of Andrew Berger as CEO and Plans to Name Frank Hallowell as Interim CEO.
    • Container Store (TCS) promotes CIO Dhriti Saha to COO.
    • Integral Ad Science (IAS) appoints Tania Secor as CFO.
    • National Storage Affiliates (NSA) appoints COO Dave Cramer to replace Tamara Fischer as its next CEO.
    • Quanergy (QNGY) to Appeal Delisting Determination by NYSE.
    • Salesforce (CRM) announced that Gavin Patterson will step down from his position as President and Chief Strategy Officer.
    • TuSimple Holdings (TSP) appoints Cheng Lu as President and CEO.
    • Ultragenyx Pharma (RARE) CFO Mardi Dier is leaving the Co for another Co.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN) authorized $10 million share repurchase program.
    • Marriott International (MAR) Increases Share Buyback Authorization by 25 million shares. (see Dividend)
    • Snail, Inc. (SNAL) Announces $5 Million Share Repurchase Program.  (a snails pace with that $5mm)
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) Announces Additional $1.5 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization. (see Dividend)
    • Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Authorizes $4 Billion of Share Repurchases.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Kintara (KTRA) Announces One-for-Fifty Reverse Stock Split..
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Albertsons Companies (ACI) Issues Statement Regarding the Delay of the Washington State Court’s Hearing on its Special Dividend Payment.
    • Assurant (AIZ) increases quarterly dividend $0.02 to $0.70 per share.
    • DTE Energy (DTE) increases dividend to $0.9525 per share
    • Marriott International (MAR) Declares an Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend by 33%.
    • Patrick Industries (PATK) increases quarterly dividend $0.12 to $0.45.
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) Announces Fourth Quarter 2022 Cash Dividend.
    • RLI Corp (RLI) declares special dividend of $7.00 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +17, Dow Jones +143,  NASDAQ +63, and Russell 2000 +10. (as of 8:09 a.m. EDT)Europe higher ex the FTSE and Asia higher.  VIX Futures are at 25.81 from 26.30 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 23.53 from 25.38 yesterday. Gold higher, Silver lower and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures are higher with Natural Gas lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.81% from 4.087% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $17,239 from $16,378 yesterday morning and is lower by -2.01% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Throw a dart and take your pick.  Everything was up.  Technology on top, Energy on the bottom of the positive conga line.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Definitely none of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy, Industrials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks finished sharply higher on Thursday, logging their biggest single-session rally in more than two years as the Dow soared more than 1,200 points on data suggesting inflation may be peaking.  When looking at stock performance on CPI data days, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq clinched their biggest daily gains in the history of the data series.  Falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve might opt for a smaller interest-rate hike in December, also helped to boost stocks, market analysts said.  (MarketWatch)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: TSN, ACM, MNDY, TSEM, KNBE, YOU, TWKS, WEBR, OTLY, CGEN of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: AQN (0.05).
  • Still to Report: None of note.


  • Positive Guidance: DGII, TOST, MTTR, LZ, MCW, BLND, FLO, BBDC of note.
  • Negative Guidance: RBC, DOCS, FIGS, AGTI, COMP, EDR, TTCF, AQN of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: MTTR +25%, DOCS +19%, LZ +15%, TOST +8%, ITUB +8%, ALLG +6%, PBYI +5%, SMRT +5%, EDR +4%.
  • Gap Down: TTCF -17%, FIGS -10%, EXFY -9%, TSP -5%, DV -4%, REXR -4%.

Insider Action: FSK, TDW, UFI sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: WBA INTC USB WYNN DOCS DUOL LZ BZH  (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Friday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: FTX Latest: EU License Under Threat As Asset Freeze Fuels Crisis. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Musk warns that bankruptcy is possible at Twitter as senior executives leave. (Bloomberg)
  • Futures higher as Europe follows U.S. rally and China eases Covid measures. (CNBC)
  • China eases quarantine and ends flight bans in Zero Covid shift. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson presenting danger for both sides. (CNBC)
  • Mortgage rates drop under 7%. (CNBC)
  • JP Morgan gives Intel (INTC) a double downgrade. (CNBC).

Moving Average Update:

  • Score jumps to 85% from 11%. Scotty…too much power too quickly!


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President arrives in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt (3:20 PM Local), 8:20 a.m. EST
    • The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt (3:55 PM Local), 8:55 a.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks at the 27th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) (5:15 PM Local), 10:15 a.m. EST
    • The President departs Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt en route to Phnom Penh, Cambodia (6:20 PM Local), 11:20 a.m. EST
    • Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will speak aboard Air Force One en route Phnom Penh, Cambodia (8:20 PM Local – Estimated), 1:20 p.m. EST


  • November University of Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 59.6 from 59.90.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count    1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • CareMax, Inc. (CMAX) Completes Acquisition of Medicare Value-Based Care Business of Steward Health Care System.
  • Fidelity National (FNF) acquires St. Louis Title, Security Title Insurance Agency and Accurate Disbursing of St. Louis, and Benchmark Title of Southern Illinois.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Cowen and Company 6th Annual IO Next Summit 2022
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Bank of America Securities China Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/11/22)
        • Daiwa Investment Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/15/22)
        • Truist West Coast Bus Tour
        • Truist Securities MedTech Bus Tour
  • Company Meetings: ADTX, DKDC
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: VERI
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day:
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Society for Neuroscience (SfN) Annual Meeting 2022 (11/12/22-11/16/22)
    • World Climate Summit 2022 (11/13/22-11/14/22)
    • Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) North America 43rd Annual Meeting 2022 (11/13/22-11/17/22)
    • EEI 57th Annual Electric Company Financial Conference 2022 (11/13/22-11/15/22) (MC, GS, MFG, EIX, AQN, ALE, AEE, AEP, AWK, AGR, BKH, CNP, CMS, ED, D, DTE, DUK, ETR, WTRG, EVRG, ES, EXC, HE, IDA, NEE, NI, NWE, OGE, PNW, POR, PPL, SRE, SO, XEL, AY, PEG)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: