CAPIS Morning Note – 11/08/22: Election Day Equals Verdict Day On Biden Agenda. Will Dems Keep Control?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3806.80 (higher by 0.96%) from Friday at 3770.42 (higher by 1.36%).  The overnight high of 3831.50 was hit at 6:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3800 at 3:20 a.m. EDT, a range of 31 points high to low which is below the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 3806.80 (higher by 0.96%) from Friday at 3770.42 (higher by 1.36%).  The overnight high of 3831.50 was hit at 6:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3800 at 3:20 a.m. EDT, a range of 31 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45.  At 7:10 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was higher by +15.25 points at 3830.50 which is +0.40%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: PRDO +0.10, QGEN +0.10, ATVI +0.08, AAON +0.08, YMAB +0.07, QTWO +0.06, TASK +0.06, ASH +0.05, FIVN +0.04, VECO +0.04, DHT +0.04, OSH +0.04, DOOR +0.04, IFF +0.03, ME +0.02, TDC +0.02, BHF +0.02, LYFT +0.02, BNFT +0.01, HIMS +0.01, MTW +0.01, ACCO +0.01, WELL +0.01.
  • Flat: TSVT +0.00, FLGT +0.00, FSK +0.00.
  • Misses: TTWO (0.72), SEDG (0.53), LPSN (0.49), LGND (0.41), GRPN (0.24), ECOM (0.19), MOS (0.18), NSTG (0.17), FGEN (0.15), ROVR (0.10), TRIP (0.10), LNT (0.09), ADTN (0.08), AMWL (0.04), MWA (0.04), BWXT (0.02), TWOU (0.02), CERT (0.02), PACB (0.01), MLNK (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ARCC: Prices Public Offering.
    • LXU: Announces Pricing of Secondary Offering of 14,350,000 Shares of Common Stock by Selling Stockholder with the Company Repurchasing 3,500,000 of the Shares.
    • MRNS: 10.5M shares offering priced at $4.75/share.
    • ROIV: Announces Pricing of Primary and Secondary Public Equity Offering 30 million shares priced at $5.
    • VZLA: Announces bought deal financing of 13.8 mln common shares at $1.45 per unit.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • HUM: Prices $1.25 Billion Debt Offering.
    • UVSP: Announces Pricing of $50.0 Million Subordinated Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ABC: Secondary Public Offering of Common Shares and Common Share Repurchase.  Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) Announces Offering of 10 Million Shares of AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC).
    • ARCC: Public Offering 8Million shares. MS, BAC, UBS, RBC and WFC Bookmanagers.
    • ATHX: Proposed Public Offering. AGP Placement Agent.
    • CGTX: Filed Form S-1.. 5,586,592 Shares of Common Stock.
    • MARK: Filed Form S-1.. 29,932,823 Shares of Common Stock.
    • MRNS: Proposed Public Offering. SVB, RBC and Cantor bookmanagers.
    • ROIV: Proposed Public Equity Offering. $150 Million — Cantor bookmanager.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AKYA: Form S-3 Filed $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • BRBS: files $100 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • DBGI: Filed Form S-1 .. Mixed Shelf offering.
    • DCO: Filed Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • ETRN: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • TSVT: Filed Form S-3.. $400 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • VRCA: Filed Form S-3 .. $150 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • DISH: Offering of $2,000,000,000 in Senior Secured Notes.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • WISA: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 9,739,485 Shares of Common Stock Consisting of Up to 7,200,000 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Conversion of A Senior Secured Convertible Promissory Note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: ROVR +14%, HIMS +12%, EHTH +11%, SEDG +9%, SANM +8%, LPSN +7%, TASK +6%, QGEN +6%, AMWL +6%, YMAB +4%, OSH +4%.
    • Trading Down: ATHX -44%, NSTG -18%, TTWO -16%, TRIP -16%, MRNS -15%, LYFT -14%, VECO -13%, FIVN -13%, UIS -8%, PACB -7%, ROIV -7%, FLGT -7%, QTWO -5%, MDT -5%, ABC -4%, MWA -4%, MTW -4%, SWAV -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: LYFT, TTWO, TRIP, FIVN, SYHN, GRPN (CNBC)
    • Foxconn Plans to Invest $170 Million in EV Truck Maker Lordstown Motors (RIDE). (WSJ)
    • LYFT CEO Says Not Seeing Demand Slow Down in Q4.
    • Take-Two (TTWO) stock tumbles after it cuts outlook. (CNBC)
    • Five9 (FIVN) stock drops on full-year revenue guidance. (MarketWatch)
    • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin: Fed will persist until inflation comes down.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Acacia Research (ACTG) CEO Clifford Press resigned on November 1; current COO Martin McNulty Jr appointed interim CEO.
    • Adidas Appoints Puma’s Gulden As New CEO.
    • Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) Announces Appointment of Nathan Briesemeister as Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller.
    • Astronics (ATRO) files to delay its 10-Q.
    • BEST Inc. (BEST) Receives Notice Regarding NYSE Continued Listing Standards.
    • Broadmark Realty (BRMK) CEO Brian Ward resigns, effective immediately; names Chairman Jeffrey Pyatt as Interim CEO and Jonathan Hermes as CFO
    • NYSE To Suspend Trading Immediately In First High-school Education Group Co. Ltd. (FHS) And Commence Delisting Proceedings.
    • Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) appoints Santiago Arroyo as Chief Medical Officer.
    • PowerSchool (PWSC) Appoints New Leadership Positions to Lead Continued Company Growth.
    • Riot Blockchain (RIOT) receives non-compliance letter from NASDAQ.
    • R1 RCM (RCM) announces Lee Rivas to succeed Joseph Flanagan as Chief Executive Officer.
    • Southwest Gas (SWX) appoints Robert J. Stefani as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
    • Unisys (UIS) files form 10-NT to delay 10-Q filing.
    • Westport (WPRT) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Compliance.
    • WPP: Announced that Chief Financial Officer John Rogers has decided to step down from the company.
    • Zai Lab (ZLAB) appoints Dr. Peter Huang as its Chief Scientific Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • AAON (see Dividend)
    • DuPont (DD) Board Approval Of New $5.0 Billion Share Buyback Program.
    • Enova International (ENVA) authorizes increase to its share repurchase program of up to $150 million.
    • PLNT: Board authorizes new $500 million share repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • KERN trading r/s price.
    • Versus Systems (VS) Announces 1-For-15 Reverse Stock Split To Aid Compliance with Nasdaq Listing Requirements.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • AAON: Increases Semi-Annual Cash Dividend & Authorizes $50 Million for Stock Buyback Program
    • Alliant Energy (LNT) increases its 2023 expected annual common stock dividend target to $1.81 per share from the current annual common stock dividend target of $1.71 per share, a 6% increase.
    • Intl Game Tech. PLC (IGT) Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per common share. 
    • Investors Title Company (ITIC) declares special dividend of $3.00 per share.
    • IBM Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.65.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +8, Dow Jones +66,  NASDAQ +59, and Russell 2000 +5. (as of 8:07 a.m. EDT)Europe lower ex Germany and Asia was lower ex Japan.  VIX Futures are at 25.05 from 25.70 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 24.35 from 24.65  yesterday. Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.212% from 4.136% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $19,740 from $20,758 Monday morning and is lower by -5.19% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Technology, Industrials, Energy, Health Care, Financial of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy, Industrials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks rose Monday ahead of a crowded week of corporate earnings, inflation data and midterm elections that could see a shift to Republican control of one or both chambers of Congress.  This week, traders are focused on Tuesday’s midterm elections and Thursday’s inflation data for October. The closely watched report is expected to show consumer prices increasing at an annual rate of 7.9%, down from 8.2% the month before. Corporate earnings are also due from such companies as Walt Disney, Occidental Petroleum and Adidas. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: DIS, OXY, LCID, JKHY, NLOK, AKAM, DAR, DOX, PLUG, MASI, HALO, SAIL, AFRM, SRC, PRI, DV, NTRA, IAC, NEWR, MRTX, ZD, ALRM, GO, SFM, ABCL, VSAT, LFST, NOG, ENV, NHI, FLYW, IOSP, XENE, GBDC, CRCT, GDRX, SUPN, NVAX, SILK, CARG, LMND, CLNE, OPK, MODN, TWO, RAMP, DDD, PRA, WTI, EBS, KIND, AMRS, MRC, BLNK, ICHR, NVTA, INO, BIRD, HCAT, EOLS, ARLO, HRTX, SEER, SRRK, KOD, OSUR of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: TRP, RBLX, DHI, TTD, BGNE, GIB, TPG, HR, MIDD, CPRI, STWD, IONS, TGNA, HGV, WEN, ALE, WD, OLPX, HL, VERX, HBI, NOMD, AG, IS, STER, MSGE, KRNT, WWW, SPTN, VCEL, FVRR, RDNT, PERI, CAMT, IMXI, ECOM, BHG, CEVA, EBIX, TBLA, DIBS of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BLDR +1.90, NXST +1.61, CG +0.35, NWN +0.16, IGT +0.13, LITE +0.13, EVBG +0.11, ACRS +0.11, NOVT +0.07, TGI +0.07, NEO +0.07, GFS +0.05, NCLH +0.05, ELAN +0.04, PLNT +0.04, PKI +0.03, CLVT +0.03, DD +0.03, BSY +0.02, MNKD +0.02, HAIN +0.01, STVN +0.01, REYN +0.01, SHO +0.01.
  • Flat: COTY +0.00.
  • Misses: CEG (1.34), RIDE (0.42), DBD (0.36), NFE (0.32), RCM (0.21), AHCO (0.20), SSP (0.18), ARVN (0.17), TAC (0.16), SQSP (0.15), SAGE (0.12), RETA (0.11), CYXT (0.11), PRGO (0.11), PLTK (0.06), SKIN (0.05), EVRI (0.05), HSKA (0.04), FA (0.02).
  • Still to Report: CNHI, EXK, EXPD, SCSC, SPWR, SEAT.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: SANM, SWAV, LGND, TASK, QGEN, ROVR, OSH, HIMS, FN, PRDO, ASH, LNT, DD, TGI, SEAT, GFS, AHCO, EVBG, BLDR, SKIN of note.
  • Negative Guidance: NSTG, FLGT, DOCN, VECO, FIVN, MLNK, QTWO, IFF, UIS, CLVT, FA, ELAN, PRGO, NOVT, RCM, LITE, HSKA of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: HIMS +22%, ROVR +16%, RIDE +12%, TWOU +11%, TASK +11%, LPSN +11%, SEDG +10%, PRIM +8%, EHTH +7%, ARRY +6%, SANM +5%, FN +5%, ME +5%, LGND +5%, ENVA +5%, YMAB +4%, NFE +4%, PTVE +4%.
  • Gap Down: ATHX -44%, TRIP -19%, TTWO -19%, LYFT -18%, MRNS -18%, UIS -16%, NSTG -15%, ROIV -13%, FIVN -13%, QTWO -9%, GRPN -9%, DOCN -8%, BRMK -8%, FLGT -6%, MDT -5%, VZLA -5%, PACB -5%, ARCC -4%.

Insider Action: NGM, GPN sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  BCOV sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TTWO LYFT TRIP RIDE DD COTY PLNT QGEN MDT  (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Election Day Opens with Americans Set To Deliver Verdict on Biden Agenda. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Elon Musk tells Twitter followers to vote for Republican Congress. (Bloomberg)
  • Top Senate seats to watch in the election. (CNBC)
  • GOP has 84% chance to capture House and 59% on Senate. (538)
  • President Trump says he will make a big announcement on Tuesday, November 15th. (Bloomberg)
  • Crypto falls the most in two weeks. (Bloomberg)
  • Nvidia (NVDA) offers an alternative chip to China to get around export rules. (WSJ)
  • Tesla (TSLA) recalls 40,000 units over power loss. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score jumps 20% to 54%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:30 a.m. EST

Economic

  • October NFIB Small Business Optimism is due out at 6:00 a.m. EST and came in last month at 92.10.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST
  • Mid Term Voting runs all day with results overnight.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Forward Air (FWRD) to acquire Chickasaw Container Services, a privately held intermodal drayage provider.
  • MeridianLink (MLNK) acquires OpenClose, a fintech provider of residential mortgage software for financial institutions.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Baird 52nd Annual Global Industrial Conference 2022 (11/08/22-11/10/22)
    • Credit Suisse Brazilian Private Companies 
    • MS Global Chemicals, Agriculture, and Packaging Conf (11/08/22-11/09/22)
    • Piper East Coast Financial Services Conference (11/08/22-11/09/22)
    • UBS European Conference 2022 (11/08/22-11/10/22)
    • Wolfe Research Wealth Symposium (11/08/22-11/09/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Credit Suisse 31st Annual Healthcare Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/10/22)
        • Goldman Sachs 14th Annual CEEMEA 1×1 Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/08/22)
        • Daiwa Investment Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/15/22)
        • Financial Times Global Pharma and Biotech Summit 2022 (11/07/22-11/09/22)
        • Bank of America Securities China Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/11/22)
  • Company Meetings: PWOD
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AMCR, BHE, BL, CALT, ERO, NDAQ, NUE, PTLO, RYI, RNLSY, ZM
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: