CAPIS Morning Note – 11/07/22: Stocks Recover From Early Overnight Weakness To Turn Positive

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3770.42 (higher by 1.36%) from Thursday at 3719.89 (lower by -1.06%).  The overnight high of 3805 was hit at 6:40 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3738.25 at 6:05 p.m. EDT, a range of 67 points high to low which is above the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 3770.42 (higher by 1.36%) from Thursday at 3719.89 (lower by -1.06%).  The overnight high of 3805 was hit at 6:40 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3738.25 at 6:05 p.m. EDT, a range of 67 points high to low which is above the recent range of 45.  At 7:10 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was higher by +20.25 points at 3799.75 which is +0.54%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • DFLI: Filed Form S-1.. 38,132,989 Shares of Common Stock 18,308,414 Warrants to Purchase Shares of Common Stock 18,308,414 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Warrants.
    • FAT:
      • Proposed Public Offering of Class A Common Stock.. ThinkEquity bookmanager.
      • Announces Withdrawal of Proposed Common Stock Offering.
    • NEPT: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 6,417,114 Common Shares Underlying Warrants.
      WTTR: Filed Form S-3ASR .. 8,717,619 Shares of Class A common stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • BPTH: Announces $2.0 Million Registered Direct Offering and Concurrent Private Placement.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ANNX: Filed Form S-3.. 42,137,548 Shares Common Stock Offered by the Selling Securityholders.
    • FWRG: Filed Form S-1,, Up to 5,000,000 Shares of Common Stock, 41,564,784 Shares of Common Stock Offered by Selling Stockholders.
    • LXU: Announces Secondary Offering of 14,350,000 Shares of Common Stock by Selling Stockholder with the Company Repurchasing 3,500,000 of the Shares.
    • PUMP: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 10,116,888 Shares of common stock by selling stockholder.
    • SONX: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 66,361,382 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CVRX: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • ORRF: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • RYN: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • WYNN: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • TIGO: announces a Tender Offer by Tigo Paraguay to purchase up to U.S. $55,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of Telecel’s 5.875% senior notes due 2027.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • AZZ: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Up to 240,000 shares of 6.0% Series A Convertible Preferred Stock Up to 5,508,991 shares of Common Stock issuable upon conversion of 240,000 shares of 6.0% Series A Convertible Preferred Stock.
    • SMHI: Filed Form S-3.. 2,978,724 Shares of Common Stock (or 2,978,724 Warrants in Lieu of Such Common Stock) Issuable Upon Conversion of the Convertible Notes, as well as any Shares of Common Stock Underlying the Warrants.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: QTNT 1257%, TWO 351%, RYAM 127%, ACOR 115%, NINE 80%, LIND 71%, MGNX 66%, AIMC 62%, KLXE 61%, HLX 60%, OII 56%, GBX 53%, OIS 52%, VCYT 51%, ABMD 50%, TUSK 49%, MOD 48%, GLT 46%, PI 43%, IAG 43%.
    • Trading Down: TCDA -98%, SIEN -72%, FNKO -60%, CVNA -51%, CPRT -48%, SYNH -46%, VAPO -43%, TUP -41%, CTLT -41%, UBX -40%, PTCT -36%, TEAM -36%, GDS -35%, TWLO -34%, SIVB -33%, AUPH -32%, TNDM -32%, KAMN -30%, PRLB -30%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Federal Research Board of Governors Lael Brainard:
      • Key For Fed, Regulators To Monitor Financial Stability Risks.
      • Recent Market Volatility Highlights The Fed’s Stability Vigilance.
      • Current Macro Environment Raises Risk Of Financial Shocks .
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks That Defined the Week: QCOM, UBER, SBUX, PFE, HOOD, AMZN. (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business:  The Fed Stays the Course (NYT)
    • U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has been in contact with Yuri Ushakov, a foreign-policy adviser to Mr. Putin. Mr. Sullivan also has spoken with his direct counterpart in the Russian government, Nikolai Patrushev. (WSJ)
    • Apple (AAPL) Warns iPhone Production Disrupted by China Covid-19 Restrictions. (WSJ)
    • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) Swings to Loss, Stung by Battered Market. (WSJ)
    • How the Chips Act Could Benefit Tech Stocks and Investors. (WSJ)
    • META Expected To Begin Large-scale Layoffs This Week. (WSJ
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: + on PGNY, MET of note.
      • Cautious View: TSLA of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • BioLineRx (BLRX) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Notification.
    • Brooge Energy Ltd (BROG) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Staff Determination Letter.
    • Enthusiast Gaming (EGLX) Receives NASDAQ Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Enovix (ENVX) T.J. Rodgers named Executive Chairman effective immediately.
    • Gelesis (GLS) receives NYSE notice of non-compliance.
    • Genetron Health (GTH) Announces Receipt of Notification from Nasdaq.
    • Hepsiburada (HEPS) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • National Energy Services Reunited Corp. (NESR) Announces Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Late Filing of Annual Report on Form 20-F.
    • Swvl (SWVL) Reports Receipt of Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Notification.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Cenovus (CVE) announces renewal of share buyback program of up to 136,717,741 common shares.
    • Daqo New Energy (DQ) Announces $700 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Red River Bancshares, Inc. (RRBI) Announces Renewal of Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Triumph Bancorp (TBK) commences a modified “Dutch Auction” tender offer to repurchase up to $100 million of its common stock.
    • TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET) Commences a Modified Dutch Auction Tender Offer to Repurchase up to $250 Million of its Common Stock.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +16, Dow Jones +153,  NASDAQ +35, and Russell 2000 +12. (as of 8:07 a.m. EDT)Europe higher ex the FTSE and Asia was higher.  VIX Futures are at 25.70 from 25.90 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 24.65 from 25.30 yesterday. Gold is higher with Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures are lower with Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and  lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.136% from 4.165% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $20,758 from $20,632 Friday morning and is lower by -2.03% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Financial, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy, Industrials, Consumer Defensive, Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks finished higher on Friday, snapping a four-day losing streak in a hectic session that saw the three major indexes swing in and out of positive territory multiple times. Volatility was high across asset classes as investors contended with shifting expectations surrounding where the Fed funds rate is expected to peak next year, along with Friday’s October jobs report data and the expiration of daily and weekly options tied to individual stocks, stock indexes and exchange-traded funds, which helped to exacerbate volatility, market strategists said. The S&P 500 SPX, +1.36% finished 50.66 points, or 1.4%, higher at 3,770.55, but still logged a weekly loss of 3.4% its worst weekly performance in about a month, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.28% closed 132.31 points, or 1.3%, higher at 10,475.25, but logged a weekly loss of 5.7% for its worst such pullback since the week ended Jan. 21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.26% gained 401.97 points, or 1.3%, to finish at 32,403.22 on Friday, but still saw a weekly decline of 1.4%.. (MarketWatch)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: ATVI, FANG, IFF, TTWO, MOS, LNT, SEDG, NFE, QGEN, SWAV, ASH, VNOM, LYFT, BWXT, FIVN, FN, CBT, BHF, AEL, DOCN, ICUI, AAON, SANM, TDC, DIOD, TASK, CERT, QTWO, MWA, ADTN, PACB, DOOR, FGEN, LGND, DHT, ME, FLGT, AMWL, PRIM, ENTA, VECO, HIMS, PRDO, LPSN, UIS, NSTG, TWOU, ACCO, YMAB, MTW, GRPN, BNFT, EHTH of note.
  • Tuesday Before the Open: GFS, CNHI, PKI, EXPD, BEKE, CG, BLDR, RCM, NXST, CLVT, NCLH, REYN, COTY, PLNT, PRGO, STVN, NOVT, IGT, SQSP, SPWR, AHCO, TAC, SHO, SKIN, EVRI, NWN, HAIN, EVBG, SSP, RETA, ACRS, MNKD, SCSC, HSKA, EXK, TGI, RIDE, DBD of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BNTX +3.56, DINO +0.36, AMG +0.30, BLUE +0.24, HAE +0.16, RBA +0.15, WHD +0.04, WTRG +0.04, NI +0.02, FOUR +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: THS (1.77), NRG (0.79), VTRS (0.55), BEAM (0.47), HEP (0.19), CHH (0.13), DK (0.09), HLIO (0.07), IAA (0.05), FNV (0.03), CRON (0.02), PLTR (0.01).
  • Still to Report: BLDP.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: FUBO of note.
  • Negative Guidance: KOP, HLIO, FOUR of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: LXRX +11%, IAA +7%, VLRS +5%, HAE +5%.
  • Gap Down: VERV -14%.

Insider Action:  sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: BNTX BRKB META AAPL AUY GFI AEM PAAS RYAAY DASH OKTA (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: COP27 Talks Begin: Germany’s Scholz Accused of ‘Energy Colonialism’. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Twitter Asks Some Fired Workers To Return. (Bloomberg)
  • Ukraine is in danger of running out of weapons on Russian drone strikes. (CNBC)
  • Chinese Exports come in well below expectations. (CNBC)
  • China’s National Health Commission has reaffirmed zero coronavirus policy to be instituted and says situation could become “more severe and complex” amid flu season. (FT)
  • EU has serious concerns over Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. (CNBC)
  • Biden Administration in a side conversation asked Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. (The Washington Post)
  • Election Preview – sees GOP getting control of House. (The Washington Post)
  • President Biden calls for “no more drilling” over the weekend. (Fox)
  • Senator Joe Manchin (D- WV) was critical of President Biden comment that we should shut down all coal plants in the U.S. (Politico)
  • Goldman Sachs calls for flat earnings in 2023 from 3% growth. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves to 34% from 17%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:30 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:45 p.m. EST
    • The President participates in virtual receptions for the Democratic National Committee, 4:00 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady depart the White House en route Bowie, Maryland, 5:45 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady arrive in Beltsville, Maryland, 5:55 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady participate in a rally for gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore and the Democratic Party, 7:00 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady depart Bowie, Maryland en route the White House, 8:25 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at the White House, 8:35 p.m. EST

Economic

  • Investor Movement Index 12:30 p.m. EST
  • Consumer Credit 3:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 3:40 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Boston President Susan M. Collins Speaks 3:40 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 6:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Activision (ATVI) insiders fret $69 Billion Microsoft (MSFT) merger could fall apart: sources. (NY POST)
  • Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN) announced the purchase of SEI Engineering.
  • Peabody Energy (BTU) & Coronado discontinue combination discussions.
  • Ouster (OUST) and Velodyne (VLDR) Announce Proposed Merger of Equals to Accelerate Lidar Adoption.
  • Ritchie Bros. (RBA) to acquire IAA in stock and cash transaction valued at ~$7.3 billion.
  • Unity (U) Completes Merger with ironSource.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bernstein’s 6th Electric Revolution Conference 2022
    • Credit Suisse 31st Annual Healthcare Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/10/22)
    • Goldman Sachs 14th Annual CEEMEA 1×1 Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/08/22)
    • Daiwa Investment Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/15/22)
    • Financial Times Global Pharma and Biotech Summit 2022 (11/07/22-11/09/22)
    • Mizuho Inaugural Industrial Bus Tour.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Bank of America Securities China Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/11/22)
  • Company Meetings: KERN
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AMGN, MTD, NI.
  • Update:
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: