CAPIS Morning Note – 10/28/22: Stocks Mixed To Lower As Apple Beats and Amazon Misses

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 3807.30 (lower by -0.61%) from Wednesday at 3830 (lower by -0.74%).  The overnight high of 3813 was hit at 10:00 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3757.50 at 4:35 p.m. EDT, a range of 56 points high to low which is above the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 3807.30 (lower by -0.61%) from Wednesday at 3830 (lower by -0.74%).  The overnight high of 3813 was hit at 10:00 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3757.50 at 4:35 p.m. EDT, a range of 56 points high to low which is above the recent range of 45.  At 7:20 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was down -27 points which is -0.71%.  

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: PFSI +1.29, PXD +0.66, GILD +0.47, VRTX +0.37, ELME +0.29, RRR +0.26, INTC +0.26, PFG +0.24, CSL +0.23, HIG +0.22, SKYW +0.21, KNSL +0.19, HLI +0.16, TEX +0.16, LOPE +0.15, HUBG +0.15, COLM +0.13, MERC +0.13, RSG +0.12, SPSC +0.11, ENVA +0.10, NBHC +0.10, CASH +0.10, EIG +0.10, DECK +0.10, CWST +0.09, FHI +0.08, MGRC +0.08, AMZN +0.07, ZEN +0.07, AJG +0.06, DRQ +0.06, COHU +0.06, AX +0.06, PINS +0.05, EXPO +0.05, WY +0.05, EMN +0.05, DXCM +0.04, GLPI +0.04, ONTO +0.04, TXRH +0.04, VRSN +0.04, MPWR +0.04, KN +0.03, CUZ +0.03, STAG +0.03, LPLA +0.03, TFII +0.03, AAPL +0.02, PEB +0.02, X +0.02, EGHT +0.02, ATR +0.01, CUBE +0.01, SWN +0.01, AUY +0.01.
  • Flat: CPT +0.00, OFC +0.00, MHK +0.00, NATI +0.00.
  • Misses: COF (0.84), FTAI (0.44), PTCT (0.27), FSLR (0.22), BIO (0.14), LHX (0.14), TMUS (0.10), NOV (0.08), SGEN (0.06), VICI (0.06), MTX (0.05), LTC (0.04), OIS (0.04), LMAT (0.03), SSNC (0.03), ABCB (0.01), EW (0.01), RMD (0.01), TVTX (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • NXGN: Prices Upsized $230.0 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) files supplement to prospectus dated August 31, 2022; to offer additional shares of common stock of up to $150 million..
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CMCT: Files for $1 bln mixed securities shelf offering.
    • LII: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • UPC: Filed Form F-3.. $200,000,000 of Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • VRAR: Form S-3 Filed $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • CW: Announces Successful Completion of $300 Million Debt Offering.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up:  EGHT +12%, DXCM +10%, PINS +9%, PFSI +6%, ACGL +6%, BFH +6%, CWST +6%, INTC +6%, VRTX +5%, ROC +6%SKYW +4%.
    • Trading Down: PTCT -15%, AMZN -12%, BWMX -12%, EW -11%, MPWR -9%, UFI -9%, MHK -8%, LMAT -5%, DECK -4%, FSLR -4%, EMN -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: AMZN, AAPL, PINS, INTC, GILD, VRTX, COF (CNBC)
    • Elon Musk is now in charge at Twitter (TWTR). “I’m told former CEO @paraga and CFO @nedsegal have left the company’s HQ and will not be returning as the Musk era begins”. (David Faber Tweet)
    • Amazon (AMZN) Shares Skid on Weak Outlook Amid Recession Fears. (WSJ)
    • Apple (AAPL) earnings beat as record back-to-school Mac sales outweigh a slight miss on iPhones. (MarketWatch)
    • Intel (INTC) announces up to $10 billion in cost reductions through 2025. (CNBC)
    • Gilead (GILD) stock rises on more upbeat forecasts, while COVID drug sales slide. (MarketWatch)
    • Pinterest (PINS) shares soar on third-quarter revenue beat as it bucks online ads trend. (CNBC)
    • Billionaires Slim and Larrea face off for Citi’s (C) Mexico business. (Reuters)
    • Huntington Ingalls (HII) awarded $2.41 billion modification to a previously awarded contract by the U.S. Navy.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • ACGL to replace TWTR in S&P 500.
    • Ecopetrol (EC) appointed Carlos Gustavo Cano Sanz as Chairman of the Board of Directors.
    • Evolution Petroleum (EPM) selects Kelly W. Loyd as CEO after serving as Interim CEO.
    • Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) announces that Mr. Li Wang has resigned as the chief executive officer of the Company.
    • Medicenna (MDNA) Receives Nasdaq Deficiency Notice Regarding Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Mativ Holdings (MATV) COO Omar Hoek to resign.
    • Molecular Partners (MOLN) Announces Planned Departure of Chief Financial Officer.
    • NuStar Energy (NS) announces Bill Greehey will step down from his position as NuStar’s chairman of the board.
    • Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) discloses DOJ civil investigation.
    • Statera Biopharma (STAB) Receives Positive Nasdaq Listing Determination.
    • TTEC Holdings (TTEC) announced that Regina Paolillo, Global Chief Operations Officer, is retiring.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. (CFFN) Announces Intention to Repurchase Stock.
  • Stock Splits or News: 
    • ENSC trading r/s price. 
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Astec (ASTE) Announces Dividend Increase of 8.3%.
    • AbbVie (ABBV) raises dividend by 5% to $1.48.
    • Alliance Resource (ARLP) increases quarterly distribution to $0.50 per share, a $0.10 bump.
    • Baker Hughes (BKR) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.19 per share.
    • Flagstar Bancorp (FBC) declared a special dividend of $2.50 per share on its common stock. (See M&A)
    • Gorman-Rupp (GRC) increases quarterly cash dividend by $0.005 to $0.175 per share.
    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) declared a quarterly base-plus-variable cash dividend of $5.71 per common share.
    • Select Energy Services (WTTR) declares initial quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share.
    • TFI International (TFII) Board approved a 30% quarterly dividend increase to $0.35.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -15, Dow Jones +5,  NASDAQ -96, and Russell 2000 -0.32. (as of 8:07 a.m. EDT). Europe lower and Asia  lower as well.  VIX Futures are at 27.85 from 28.53 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 27.28 from 28.44 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower with Natural Gas lower as well. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.006% from 4.069% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $20,180 from $20,606 yesterday morning and is lower by  -2.25% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Energy, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials, Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Energy, Basic Materials, Healthcare of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Tech was again a drag in the market.  NASDAQ down 1.03%.  Thanks META!  TLT finished up 1.04%.

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: SJR of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: WMB, PCG, GPN, PEG, ON, HWM, CNA, XPO, SAIA, AMG, JELD of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: CVX +0.71, XOM +0.65, IMO +0.39, PIPR +0.28, NEP +0.22, BAH +0.21, FTS +0.21, SNY +0.20, JKS +0.19, GTLS +0.18, CHD +0.11, ABBV +0.10, SLCA +0.08, NVT +0.07, NWL +0.06, AB +0.06, CRTO +0.05, NEE +0.05, DTM +0.03, AON +0.03, AVTR +0.01, CL +0.01, BLMN +0.01.
  • Flat: FHB +0.00, WETF +0.00, B +0.00.
  • Misses: CHTR (1.01), LYB (0.99), DVA (0.32), CRI (0.04).
  • Still to Report: GNTX, GWW, NMRK, PFS, SMP.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: EME, MGRC, GILD, VRTX, TEXLOPE, CWST, SNY, NVT of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SNDR, TNC, MPWR, INTC, MHK, AMZN, SSNC, SPSC, EW, NATE, EGHT, LMAT, CPT, LHX, EMN, ATR, GTLS, CRI, DVA, CHD, CL, CRTO, NWL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: EGHT +13%, TVTX +9%, CUBE +9%, PINS +8%, EPM +7%, CWST +6%, DXCM +6%, NUVL +6%, PFSI +6%, TFII +5%, ACGL +5%, DRQ +5%, EQNR +5%, GILD +5%, VRTX +4%, INTC +4%.
  • Gap Down: PTCT -14%, AMZN -13%, BWMX -12%, EW -12%, UFI -10%, NWG -9%, NATI -7%, MPWR -6%, DECK -6%, LMAT -5%, CRI -4.8%, HII -4%, FSLR -4%, INO -4%.

Insider Action: HBAN (This is in Erlanger Model Finance Portfolio), NGM sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: XOM CVX AMZN AAPL PINS INTC SNY TMUS DECK (CNBC)
  • Five Things to Know This Morning. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Elon Musk takes on Twitter CEO role reversing life bans as CEO. Fires top Twitter executives. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Tesla Engineers visit Twitter office to review code for Musk. (Bloomberg)
  • The U.K. looks at tax increases and spending cuts. (FT)
  • Russian President Putin claims no reason to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. (CNBC)
  • EU strikes deal to ban gas and diesel car saels starting in 2035. (CNBC)
  • Fifth Circuit Ruling throws into question every rule the CFPB has made since inception. Case was related to payday loans. (CNBC)
  • Exxon (XOM) blows out earnings. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score drops to 54% from 68%.  Lost some ground on the short term MA.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President departs New Castle, Delaware en route Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 5:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 5:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The Vice President deliver remarks at a reception for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, 7:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Philadelphia, Pennsylvania en route New Castle, Delaware, 8:40 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in New Castle, Delaware, 8:55 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • September Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to stay at 0.3%.
  • September PCE Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT as well and is expected to improve to 0.4% from 0.6%.
  • September Pending Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to -5.1% from -2.0%.
  • October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 59.6 from 59.8.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • We enter a blackout period for the Fed – No speakers until  Fed Announcement on November 2nd.

M&A Activity:

  • New York Community (NYCB) and Flagstar Bancorp (FBC) merger approved by OCC; both cos mutually agreed to extend their merger agreement to Dec 31 from Oct 31.
  • Synaptics (SYNA) Acquires Emza Visual Sense, Extends Leadership in Ultra-Low-Power Edge AI Processing.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • None of note
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Credit Suisse Global Trading Forum
        • SVB Securities Biopharma Private Company Connect
  • Company Meetings: VTGN.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ILMN, NUVL, SYNH.
  • Update:
    • Y-mAbs (YMAB) Therapeutics FDA Advisory Committee Meeting for Omburtamab
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Deutsche Bank (DB) AG Q3 2022 Conference Call for Fixed Income investors.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: