CAPIS Morning Note – 10/20/20: Deal or No Deal?

Market Tone: Stocks have been fading any gains the last couple of days. Same thing this morning. Once the market can put stimulus behind it then normal trading can return only to get volatile again election week. Volatility remains a clear and present issue. There is a deadline for a stimulus deal put in place by…

Market Tone: Stocks have been fading any gains the last couple of days. Same thing this morning. Once the market can put stimulus behind it then normal trading can return only to get volatile again election week. Volatility remains a clear and present issue. There is a deadline for a stimulus deal put in place by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the weekend to get a deal by Tuesday close.

Covid-19 Update With Latest Data From Monday 

Total Cases 8,171,703 from 8,113,984

Recovered: 3,272,603 from 3,234,138

Deaths 211,846 from 211,384

Tests 1,200,056 from 964,792

Daily Deaths 780 from 774

Current Hospitalizations 37,744 from 36,428

source COVID tracking project

Others sources of note Johns Hopkins Map

Capital Raises

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced:  BLU of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings: ACCD AMC  of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: 

Mixed Shelf Offerings: XFOR of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings After The Close:


LOGI +1.33, CCK +0.38, BXS +0.15, ZION +0.12, CDNS +0.09, STLD +0.03, FNB +0.03, ELS +0.02, PPG +0.01  of note.

Flat: IBM (+0.00)


HXL (0.36) of note.

News After The Close:

Align Tech (ALGN) files new lawsuit against 3Shape in Texas Federal Court for patent infringement.

House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin make some progress in Monday talks will speak today.

Softbank (SFTBY) increases stock positions to $20 billion.

Intel (INTC) to sell its NAND memory business for $9 billion.

Supreme Court splits 4-4 to allow mail in ballots in Pennsylvania up to three days after the election. Roberts sides with the liberal side of the court.

Dividend Increase: WHR

Dividend Suspended: 

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Guides Higher: 

Hourly Action –  Updated 10/15.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +17  Dow Jones Industrial Average +127 NASDAQ +60 Russell 2000 +16. Fair values are lower.  Asia and Europe mixed. Current VIX is at 29.18 from 27.41. 3 month VIX Future is at 30.40 from 29.21.

Gold lower with silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.75 from $138.81 with yields at 0.789% from 0.751%.

Positive Sectors On Monday: None of note.

Negative Sectors On Monday: Real Estate, Communication Services, Healthcare and Technology  of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)



Morning Gaps:

Gap Up:

APTX +58%, LOGI +21%, LOGI +21%, CARA +9%, HTZ +8%, CNTG +8%, CCK +7%, IVA +6%, UBS +6%, XPEV +4%.

Gap Down

HXL -9%, BLU -4%, PHR -4%, STLD -4%, IBM -3%

Earnings This Morning Of Note


CMA +0.60, MAN +0.55, UBS +0.45, CBSH +0.41, ACI +0.37, SNV +0.37, DOV +0.28, PG +0.21, PNR +0.19, RF +0.16, LMT +0.15, IQV +0.11, IRDM +0.07, PM +0.06, TRV +0.05, GPK +0.04, SYF +0.04 of note.

Missed: SBNY (-0.09)

None of note.

Still To Report: CP, GATX, NVR, PCAR, PLD

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart –  Updated 10/19 Close. The  A/D line fell apart again. It appears a near term top could be in place. Today starts with strength will it fade again?

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – PG TRV LOGI (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Virus moves to endemic. (CNBC)

President Trump in Fox Interview indicates still wants to go big on stimulus deal. (Fox)

Thursday night presidential debate will see muted mics. (NYT)

Republicans pick up voter registration in NC, FL and PA even though Trump behind in those polls. (NYT)

Moderna (MRNA) CEO thinks FDA could grant Emergency Use Authorization in December, not earlier. (WSJ)

Department of Justice to file antitrust lawsuit on Google (GOOGL) today. (WSJ)

Senator Ted Cruz says there will be no stimulus bill and that any bills that reach the Senate will be filibustered. (CNBC)

Stock Index Trading

Current through 10/19 close. Several indexes broke their 10 day moving averages yesterday in addition to their 5 day moving averages.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/16 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting


September Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 1,430,000 from 1,416,000.

Weekly API Petroleum Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related

President Trump will participate in a town hall from the Rose Garden at 3:00 p.m. EDT. The president will then head to Erie, Pennsylvania to speak at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Governor Randall Quarles will speak at 10:50 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will speak at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

Investor Meetings & Conferences

ABMD KGC LGND  (Investor Meeting) RAIL (Webcast)  AXDX ( Product Demo Day) RNG (Code Together) CYDY (Conference Call)

Sellside Conferences: None of note.

Industry Conferences: Annual Child Neurology Society & 16th  International Child Neurology Society Congress Meeting (10/12-10/23) World Vaccine Congress Europe (10/19-10/21)


None of note beside Intel selling NAND unit (see News After Close)

Upgrades & Downgrades For Monday – 10/19