CAPIS Morning Note – 09/28/22: Stocks Lower But A Volatile Night, Hurricane Ian To Hit Florida Today

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3647.29 (lower by -0.21%) from 3655.04( lower by -1.05%) on Monday. The overnight high of 3671 was hit at 8:20 p.m. EDT. The low of 3613 was hit at 5:25 a.m. EDT, a range of 58 points high to low which is above the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3647.29 (lower by -0.21%) from 3655.04( lower by -1.05%) on Monday. The overnight high of 3671 was hit at 8:20 p.m. EDT. The low of 3613 was hit at 5:25 a.m. EDT, a range of 58 points high to low which is above the recent range of 45. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price was 3633.25 which is -27.75 points, -0.76%.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: PRGS +0.03, BB +0.02, CALM +0.02.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • GMDA: Pricing of Approximately $20 Million Public Offering of Ordinary Shares 12,905,000 of its ordinary shares @$1.55. Piper and JMP Bookmanagers
    • MNMD: Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Shares and Warrants.
    • NA: Prices offering of 2,083,334 ADSs at $2.40 per ADS.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • GMDA: Launch of Public Offering of Ordinary Shares. Piper and JMP Bookmanagers
    • MNMD: Proposed Public Offering of Common Shares. RBC and Cantor Bookmanagers
    • RKDA: Filed Form S-1.. 4,958,631 Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • GROY: Filed Form F-3.. Up to 9,393,681 Common Shares Offered by the Selling Shareholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • MFA: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • INGR: Filed Form S-3ASR Debt Securities.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: FYBR +6%, HAIN +5%, SNCR +4%.
    • Trading Down: None of note MNMD -33%, GMDA -15%, BB -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • LYFT freezes all US hiring amid stock slump, economic downturn. (NYPOST)
    • Amazon (AMZN) Temporarily Closes Some Florida Warehouses As Hurricane Ian Approaches. (CNBC)
    • Apple Inc. (AAPL) is backing off plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after an anticipated surge in demand failed to materialize, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg)
    • All Four Occupied Areas Of Ukraine Vote To Join Russia In ‘Sham’ Referendums. (Sky)
    • TWTR Active After-Hours Amid Ongoing Testimony, Discussion on Number of Fake Accounts.
    • Walt Disney (DIS) Says The Theme Parks, Water Parks Will Be Closed in Florida On Sept. 28-29. (MarketWatch)
    • “Hurricane Ian is now a Category 4 and may be among the costliest disasters in US history with estimates ranging from $15bn – $35bn.” – JPMorgan Cnbc
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Ascent Solar (ASTI) Names Jeffrey Max as New Chief Executive Officer.
    • 4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) promotes Fred Kamal to COO.
    • Frontier Communications (SPGI) Set to Join S&P MidCap 400; Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) to Join S&P SmallCap 600.
    • TrueBlue (TBI) names Taryn Owen as COO.
    • Tyson Foods (TSN) names John R. Tyson CFO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) Reports Record Sales for Fiscal First Quarter 2023, Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -24, Dow Jones -120, NASDAQ -125  and Russell 2000 -7 . (as of 8:07 a.m. EDT). Europe and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 31.85 from 30.10 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 33.74 from 31.14  yesterday. Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher and Natural Gas higher as well. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.94% from 3.821% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $18,954 from $20,220 yesterday morning and is lower by -0.50% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners:  none of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Utilities of note.
  • Six Month Winners: None of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Ugh – we cannot even relieve oversold conditions.  We started strong but could not hold gains.  Again, the Green Support line of the Erlanger Value Lines proved a good support for the markets.  Again….these numbers are generated on the first tick of the day.  You getting my point yet?  TLT was down 2.63% to close at 100.95.  Watch that 100 mark.

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: MTN, CNXC, MLKN, EPAC of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: KMX, WOR, BBY, RAD of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: THO +1.26, CGNT +0.13
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: CTAS, PAYX

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: CBRL of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SNX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: BIIB +42%, ABOS +39%, SNCR +8%, LLY +7%, FYBR +7%, CWCO +6%, HAIN +5%
  • Gap Down: MNMD -35%, GMDA -19%, NA -13%, MFA -9%, SAND -6%, DB -5%, BB -4%.

Insider Action: GNTY, CODI sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. BRT sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: BIIB THO LYFT AAPL OCGN  (CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Apple Cuts Production After Demand Falters. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Germany Suspects Sabotage on Nord Stream. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank of England announces gilt market operation; will carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK government bonds. (BOE Release)
  • Russia preparing to annex portion of Ukraine after staged vote. (WSJ)
  • EU believes that sabotage was likely on the leaks to the Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic off Denmark. (Reuters)
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen may leave the Biden Administration after mid terms.  Also, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese may leave as well. (Axios)
  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly says the Fed wants to bring inflation down as “gently as possible” to avoid a downturn. (Reuters)
  • Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says “hard landing” more likely. (WSJ)
  • Senate Minority Leader McConnell seeks election reform bill to make more difficult for members of Congress to object to election results. (CNN)
  • Mortgage financing drops to a 22 year low. (CNBC)
  • 10 Year hit 4% for the first time in 14 years. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Sixth day in a row red.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 8:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route the Ronald Reagan Building, 9:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks at the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 10:50 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady deliver remarks to celebrate the Americans with Disabilities Act and mark Disability Pride Month, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 12:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President receives a briefing from his senior economic team on global economic developments, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House, 6:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a Democratic Governors Association reception, 7:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 8:00 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 
    • Mortgage rate actual: 6.52% vs 6.25% previous. Applications (wow) actual: -3.7% vs 3.8% previous.
  • August Pending Homes Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at -0.5% from -1.0%.
  • Int. Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Wholesale Inventories 8:30 a.m. EDT 
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 8:35 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard 10:10 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Research Chair Jerome Powell 10:15 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Research Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 11:00 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans 2:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Sierra Wireless (SMTC) Securityholders Approve Acquisition by Semtech Corporation.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bernsteins 19th Pan European Annual Strategic Decisions Conference 2022 (09/28/22-09/29/22)
    • Cantor Fitzgerald Oncology and HemOnc Conference
    • Capital One Spatial Biology & Proteomics Summit
    • CNBC Delivering Alpha
    • Goldman Sachs Water Symposium
    • Lytham Partners Fall Investor Conference (09/28/22-09/29/22)
    • Macquarie Asia Looking Into a Post Covid World Conference (09/28/22-09/29/22)
    • Mizuho 4th Annual Software Summit 2022
    • Morgan Stanley Global Sporting Goods Conference
    • Oppenheimer Navigating the ESG & Climate Transition (09/28/22-09/29/22)
    • Santander Euro-Latam Conference (09/28/22-09/29/22)
    • TD Securities Paper and Forest Products Conference 2022
    • Truist Securities Government Services Bus Trip
    • Truist Securities MedTech
    • William Blair’s Innovations in Solid Organ and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Virtual Event (09/28/22-09/29/22)
    • Wolfe Research Utilities, Midstream & Clean Energy Conference (09/28/22-09/30/22)
  • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
    • Credit Suisse 2022 Education & Healthcare Conference (09/26/22-09/30/22)
    • Guggenheim Nantucket Therapeutics Conference (09/27/22-09/29/22)
  • Company Meetings: PLD, SCYX
  • Fireside Chat:
    • Siemens Healthineers (SMNNY) Jefferies Healthcare Fireside Chat.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AMZN, ATRC, AUR, DFIN, ENTX, GLPG, IMVT, LCII, MDRX, PAAS, ROIV, STEM, TKR, TOT, VFC, WVE
  • Update:
    • Parker Hannifin (PH) Conference Call on the Completed Acquisition of Meggitt PLC.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Intel (INTC) Innovation 2022. (09/27/22-09/28/22)
    • Entera Bio (ENTX) Hosting Key Opinion Leader Webinar on the Treatment Landscape for Osteoporosis and EB613’s Potential Impact.
    • Illumina (ILMN) Genomics Forum (09/28/22-10/01/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • CRI-ENCI-AACR 6th International Cancer Immunotherapy Conference (CICON) 2022 (09/28/22-10/01/22)
    • Next Generation Protein Therapeutics Summit 2022 (09/28/22-09/30/22)
    • Society of Hematologic Oncology (SOHO) 10th Annual Meeting 2022 (09/28/22-10/01/22)
    • Rivkin Center and American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) 14th Biennial Ovarian Cancer Research Symposium (09/28/22-09/29/22)
    • Mobile World Congress (09/28/22-09/30/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • BioProcess International Conference and Exhibition 2022 (09/27/22-09/30/22)
        • UiPath FORWARD 5 2022 (09/27/22-09/29/22)
        • RAS 4th Annual Targeted Drug Development Summit 2022 (09/26/22-09/28/22)
        • Ion Implantation Technology (IIT) 2022 (09/25/22-09/29/22)
        • International Conference on Biofabrication 2022 (09/25/22-09/28/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: