CAPIS Morning Note – 09/21/22: Federal Reserve Front and Center Along With Russia As President Biden Speak At U.N. Post Russian Proclamation

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3855.93 (lower by -1.13%) from Monday at  3918.75 (higher by 0.69%). The overnight high of 3885.50 was hit at 5:50 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3854.75 at 3:10 a.m. EDT, a range of 31 points high to low which is below the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3855.93 (lower by -1.13%) from Monday at  3918.75 (higher by 0.69%). The overnight high of 3885.50 was hit at 5:50 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3854.75 at 3:10 a.m. EDT, a range of 31 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45. At 7:10 a.m. EDT the current price was 3882.25 which is +9.50 points, +0.25%. Currently, at 7:55 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now +14.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: SFIX (0.26).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Avalon Acquisition Inc. (AVAC) and The Beneficient Company Group announce merger; expects to list on the Nasdaq..
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • ALPN 13.6M shares priced at $7.35 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • EQT: Pricing of $1.0 Billion of New Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ADTX: Closing of $20.0 Million Public Offering.
    • ALPN: Proposed Public Offering.. $100.0 million of shares. MS. SVB and Cowen bookmanagers
    • HYRE: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 3,221,630 Warrants to Purchase Common Stock Up to 3,221,630 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Warrants.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AROC: Filed Form S-4ASR — Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • TGAN: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: None of note.
    • Trading Down: None of note.
    • News Since The Close:
      • United Airlines (UAL) Maintenance Error Snarls Some Flights. (WSJ)
      • Ford (F) stock falls the most since 2011 after warns on supply issues. (CNBC)
      • Palantir (PLTR) signs $20 million deal with S.Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries. (Reuters)
      • Beyond Meat (BYND) COO Doug Ramsey has been suspended effective immediately
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • ClearPoint Neuro (CLPT) appoints Mazin Sabra as COO.
    • Grab (GRAB) promoted Suthen Thomas Paradatheth to Group Chief Technology Officer.
    • Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) appoints Christopher Stavros as President and Chief Executive Officer.
    • Meten Holding Group Ltd. (METX) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Tencent Music (TME) successfully lists on Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
    • Vaccitech plc (VACC) announces promotion of Gemma Brown as CFO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Equity Bancshares (EQBK) Board authorized the repurchase of up to 1,000,000 shares of Equity’s outstanding common stock. (see Dividend below)
    • Toyota Motor (TM) to extend the repurchase period for shares of its common stock to November 1, 2022 from June 17, 2022.
  • Stock Splits or News: 
    • Ra Medical Systems (RMED) Announces Results of its Special Meeting of Stockholders and a 1-for-50 Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Change Healthcare Inc (CHNG) Announces Special Cash Dividend.
    • Capital Southwest Corp. (CSWC) increases its quarterly dividend 4% to $0.52 per share.
    • CBIO Ex-Dividend Date for Special Cash Dividend of $1.43.
    • Clorox (CLX) Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend of $1.18 Per Share.
    • Equity Bancshares (EQBK) announced it has increased its quarterly cash dividend to $0.10 per share, a 25% increase.
    • Glatfelter Co (GLT) has suspended the Company’s quarterly cash dividend which had a yield of almost 12%.
    • Saga Communications, Inc. (SGA) Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend to $0.25 per Share and Declares a Special Cash Dividend of $2.00 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +16, Dow Jones +133, NASDAQ +25, and Russell 2000 +13. (as of 8:04 a.m. EDT). Europe higher and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 27.10 from 26.72 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 27.16 from 25.76 yesterday. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher and Natural Gas higher as well. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.546% from 3.54% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $19,115 from $19,287.67  yesterday morning and is higher by 0.46% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Utilities, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  none of note.
  • Three Month Winners:  Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Gap down in the morning (again) put the opening print near support (green) value line and hovered around it all day.  Rates were up prior to the FOMC meeting conclusion tomorrow.  Dollar was only green spot up 0.48% to close at 29.52 (UUP).  UNG was down 2.49% to close at 26.67.

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: LEN, TCOM, FUL, KBH, SCS of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: ACN, FDS, DRI, CCL of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: GIS +0.11.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: GIS of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SFIX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: None of note.
  • Gap Down: SFIX -8%.

Insider Action: CNA, MEDP, BRZE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  BRT, ACR sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: GIS SFIX BYND COTY EL GSBD  (CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Putin Mobilizes More Troops, Wields Ukraine Nuclear Threat. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Trump Special Master Hearing Descends Into Chaos. (Bloomberg)
  • Russian President Putin raises war tensions with the West, Ukraine slams “fake voting”. (CNBC)
  • Putin threatens nuclear response and will mobilize 300,000 more troops for the Ukraine War effort. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden will address the United Nations later today. (CNN)
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to raise by 75 basis points but the message is more important. (CNBC)
  • Mortgage demand rises for the first time in six weeks despite higher rates. (CNBC)
  • NYC ends private sector Covid-19 vaccination mandate. (NYT)
  • Boeing (BA) to eliminate 150 financial jobs. (WSJ)
  • U.S. regulators found issues at Catalent (CTLT) vaccine factory but allowed doses to be used. Emergent Biosolutions (EBS) has seen issues here as well. (Bloomberg)
  • AMD wants to secure foundry support for TSMC (TSM). (Digitimes)

Moving Average Update:

  • Back to all red…again.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President delivers remarks before the 77th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, 10:35 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a bilateral meeting with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, 11:45 AM
    • The President hosts a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Liz Truss of the United Kingdom, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks at the Global Fund’s Seventh Replenishment Conference, 4:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and First Lady host a Leader’s Reception, 7:00 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT 
    • MBA Market Index For Sep 16 Week +3.8% At 264.7; Prev Week 255
    • Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: 3.8% VS -1.2% previous
    • Refinance Index Actual: 588.1 VS 532.9 previous
    • U.S. mortgage interest rates reach 6.25%, highest level since October 2008.
  • August Existing Homes Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 4.70 million from 4.81 million.
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT 

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • The latest FOMC decision and press conference are held at 2:00 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) Completes Acquisition of MiroBio.
  • Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) and Citizens Bancshares (CZBS) announce agreement to merge.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Alliance Global Partners MedTech Summer Conference
    • Capital Link 14th Annual New York Maritime Forum
    • CIBC Eastern Institutional Investor Conference (09/21/22-09/22/22)
    • Piper Heartland Summit (09/21/22-09/22/22)
    • SVB Securities 11th Annual Healthcare Summit 2022 (09/21/22-09/23/22)
    • Sidoti Fall Small Cap Conference (09/21/22-09/22/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Baader Investment Small-Cap Conference 2022 (09/19/22-09/23/22)
        • Bank of America Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2022 (09/20/22-09/23/22)
        • Credit Suisse Houston Oil & Gas 1×1 Conference (09/20/22-09/21/22)
        • Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference (09/19/22-09/21/22)
        • Jefferies Tech Trek Israel 2022 (09/18/22-09/22/22)
        • JP Morgan Global Clean Energy Action Forum
        • JP Morgan India Investor Summit
        • JP Morgan RE+ Conference
        • JP Morgan Emerging Markets Credit Conference 2022 (09/20/22-09/22/22)
        • JP Morgan 13th Annual U.S. All Stars Conference 2022 (09/20/22-09/22/22)
        • LifeSci Partners HealthTech Symposium (09/20/22-09/21/22)
        • RBC Capital Markets Energy Disruptors UNITE Summit (09/20/22-09/22/22)
        • Roth Capital Solar & Storage Symposium (09/20/22-09/21/22)
        • Stephens Bank Forum 2022 (09/20/22-09/21/22)
        • Wells Fargo Consumer Conference (09/20/22-09/22/22)
  • Company Meetings: CAG, DRI, GLBS
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: DD, GBLI, GWW, IRTC, IZEA, NVMI, NVNO, RKLB
  • Update:
    • Coty (COTY) Skincare Strategy Update 2022
    • Lincoln National (LNC) Long-Duration Targeted Improvements Initial Disclosure Webcast.
    • Pfizer (PFE) Analyst and Investor Call to Review Oral GLP-1 Data Presented at European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) 2022.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Nvidia (NVDA) GTC 2022  (09/19/22-09/22/22)
    • Salesforce (CRM) Dreamforce
    • BALL 2022 Investor Field Trip (09/21/22-09/22/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • U.S. Department of Energy Global Clean Energy Action Forum 2022 (09/21/22-09/23/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Autonomous Vehicles Conference
        • European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) Annual Meeting 2022 (09/19/22-09/23/22)
        • The 2022 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) (09/14/22-09/25/22)
        • Denver Gold Forum Americas 2022 (09/18/22-09/23/22)
        • European Conference on Optical Communication (ECOC) 2022 (09/18/22-09/22/22)
        • International HBV Meeting 2022 (09/18/22-09/22/22)
        • Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) World Congress 2022 (09/18/22-09/22/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: