CAPIS Morning Note – 08/02/22: Stocks Lower As Pelosi Appears Ready To Land In Taiwan Today.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4188.63 (-0.28%)  from 4130.29 (higher by 1.42%) on Friday.  Futures are trading lower in the premarket session. The overnight high of 4123.50 was hit at 4:15 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4083.50 at 6:40 a.m. EDT, a range of 41 points high to low which is…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4188.63 (-0.28%)  from 4130.29 (higher by 1.42%) on Friday.  Futures are trading lower in the premarket session. The overnight high of 4123.50 was hit at 4:15 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4083.50 at 6:40 a.m. EDT, a range of 41 points high to low which is just below the range of late with 45 the average range. At 7:15 a.m. EDT the current price is 4093.50 which is -0.66% and -27 points. 

Breaking News: Pershing Square Bill Ackman always a good listen to, on CNBC between 8:00 and 9:00 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: CAR +4.06, CACC +1.72, BCC +0.78, RDN +0.60, OTTR +0.50, SBAC +0.48, FANG +0.40, CNO +0.37, EVER +0.35, MPWR +0.31, DVN +0.22, DVA +0.21, SANM +0.19, KMPR +0.18, AFL +0.18, NSP +0.17, ANET +0.16, RRX +0.15, EPR +0.13, AXNX +0.11, MATX +0.11, UNVR +0.10, PLOW +0.09, HLIT +0.07, KMT +0.07, SPG +0.07, CRK +0.05, VNOM +0.05, VNO +0.05, RHP +0.05, RIG +0.04, WMB +0.03, AMKR +0.03, EQC +0.03, ZI +0.03, INST +0.03, JRVR +0.02, OHI +0.02, LSCC +0.02, BRX +0.01, ENSG +0.01, VRNS +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: DEI +0.00, OGS +0.00, LEG +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: EBS (1.26), MOS (0.36), WWD (0.27), CF (0.19), ATVI (0.15), RMBS (0.09), PINS (0.07), EHC (0.07), KFRC (0.02), ADUS (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • EPRT: Prices offering of 7.6 million shares of common stock at $23.00.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AGRI: Filed Form S-1.. up to 10,423,986 shares.
    • EPRT: Primary Public Offering of Common Stock.. 6,500,000 shares.. WFC, BAC and Citi bookmanagers.
    • FRC: Common Stock Offering.. 2 Million shares.
    • NLY: Public Offering of Common Stock.. 100 Million shares — GS, BCS, BAC, JPM, RBC UBS and WWFC Bookmanager.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • TD announces it has sold 28.4 mln shares of Charles Schwab (SCHW), with 15,030,813 shares being sold to Schwab pursuant to a repurchase agreement.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BRDG: 89,790,510 Shares Class A Common Stock Offered by the Selling Securityholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BRDG: Filed Form S-3.. $1,000,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • RANI: Files for $400 million mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt Filing: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • ABR: Proposed Private Offering of Convertible Senior Notes due 2025.
    • MUR: Announces Cash Tender Offers for Outstanding Debt Securities.
    • RCL: Announces pricing and upsizing of $1 billion senior convertible notes offering to refinance existing convertible notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up:  EVER +23%, PINS +22%, CNLS +16%, ZI +12%, TA +10%, CLAR +9%, AHCO +9%, COWN +7%, ENSG +7%, ACT +7%, CAR +7%, HLIT +7%, VNO +6%, CNO +6%, NTNX +6%, DVA +5%, RHP +5%, ANET +5%, RIG +5%, VRNS +4%, AMKR +4%.
    • Trading Down: TMDX -10%, WWD -8%, EBS -4%, EHC -4%, RMBS -4%, FRC -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:  PINS, SGP, ANET, CAR, ZI (CNBC)
    • TD Bank (TD) Nears Deal to Buy Cowen (COWN). (WSJ)
    • Avis Budget (CAR) stock climbs after big earnings beat. (MarketWatch)
    • Pinterest (PINS) Investors Should Probably Pin It for Now. (WSJ)
    • U.S. Navy deploys four warships east of Taiwan as Pelosi heads to Taipei U.S. Navy official said amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli was also in the area as part of a deployment to the region that started in early May from its home port of San Diego.
    • L3Harris and Air (LHX) Tractor’s Sky Warden system selected by U.S. Special Operations Command for its Armed Overwatch Program; contract includes a cost ceiling of $3 billion.
    • Rolls Royce PLC (RYCEY) awarded $854 Million U.S. Navy contract.
    • Transocean Ltd. ( RIG) Announces $915 Million Contract for Ultra-Deepwater Drillship Petrobras 10000.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AdaptHealth (AHCO) will replace Meritor (MTOR) in the S&P SmallCap 600.
    • BigCommerce (BIGC) Appoints Gap Inc. Chief Growth Transformation Officer Sally Gilligan and The Container Store CEO Satish Malhotra to its Board of Directors.
    • Duke Energy (DUK) appoints Brian Savoy as CFO.
    • Jiuzi Holdings Inc. (JZXN) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • MSA Safety (MSA) CFO Kenneth Krause to resign after accepting a position at another public company.
    • Oppenheimer Holdings (OPY) appoints Brad Watkins as CFO.
    • Qudian Inc. (QD) Regains Compliance with NYSE Minimum Price Requirement.
    • Rambus (RMBS) Appoints Desmond Lynch as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Yatsen (YSG) Regains Compliance with NYSE Minimum Price Continued Listing Criterion.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Clarus Corporation (CLAR) approves a new $50 million stock repurchase program.
    • Delek US Holdings (DK) expands share repurchase authorization to $400 million. (see dividend below)
    • Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Increases Share Repurchase Authorization to $4 Billion.
    • Mosaic (MOS) approves a new $2.0 billion share repurchase authorization
    • SS&C (SSNC) Announces $1 Billion Stock Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News:  None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • American States Water (AWR) raises quarterly dividend to $0.3975 per share, a 9% increase.
    • Delek US Holdings (DK) reinstated the Company’s regular quarterly cash dividend on its common stock of $0.20. (see share buyback above)
    • Kforce (KFRC) Board of Directors approved a third quarter cash dividend of $0.30 per share.
    • Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) increases quarterly dividend $0.06 to $0.25 per share.
    • Simon Properties  (SPG) raises quarterly dividend to $1.75 from $1.70 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500  -25, Dow Jones -159, NASDAQ -98, and Russell 2000 -8. Europe lower and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 24.95 from 23.55 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 24.28 from 21.33 yesterday. Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures lower and Natural Gas lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.559% from 2.652% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $22,912 from $23,150.98 yesterday morning and is lower by -0.20% this morning. As of 8:05 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 08/01/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclical, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Real Estate, Basic Materials, healthcare, Financial, Communication Servcies of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials, Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Utilities and Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Healthcare of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Markets started the new month on a softer note vs. the sizzling hot July.  All indexes in ended in the red, but well off the lows of the day.  TLT was up 2.78% to close at 120.00.  Updated 08/01/22 close.

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: AMD, SBUX, GILD, ABNB, OXY, EA, PRU, MCHP, WCN, VRSK, EXR, CTRA, STE, PAYC, SEDG, LPLA, PEAK, FMC, SCI, AIZ, CZR, CGNX, EXAS, SRPT, TX, UNM, LFUS, VOYA, CRSP, SOFI, INSP, MNDT, RNG, THG, CRUS, LTHM, MRCY, WBT, SKY, AYX, MSTR, BLKB, EVH, APAM, SPT, PFSI, JJSF, HLF, NGVT, IOSP, KAI, CWH, GBT, TEX, OI, ATRC, KAR, KN, NMIH, TSLX, CXW, ANDE, CNDT, PUMP, VREX, CSII, DENN, WTI, VRAY, NVTA, OSPN, BCOV, SPNE of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: CVS, REGN, EPD, EXC, YUM, ABC, BIP, CDW, ETR, PPL, HZNP, GNRC, CRL, NI, UTHR, MPW, LAMR, RCM, JLL, BWA, PNW, NNN, BERY, SITE, CIGI, NYT, CLH, ATHM, SMG, PSN, ALIT, UAA, VRT, SPR, LIVN, ALE, AVA, BDC, OMI, MTOR, PCRX, BCO, FUN, SHO, DAN, EXPI, EVOP, HLMN, XHR, ODP, EVRI, SBGI, MTRN, ROCK, SPNS, CRTO, FDP, VCEL, SSYS, EDIT, DNOW, DFIN, ACRS, SMP, TGI, PERI, CARS, AMRN, ICPT, TUP, LL of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BP +2.27, MPC +2.14, LGIH +0.91, LCII +0.89, NPO +0.80, BLD +0.71, IT +0.70, CMI +0.60, GPRE +0.59, DBD +0.51, WLK +0.44, ZBRA +0.41, LEA +0.35, ARNC +0.31, INCY +0.27, KKR +0.27, IGT +0.24, MAR +0.23, RGEN +0.20, ZBH +0.18, VSH +0.18, RACE +0.16, CAT +0.16, HUN +0.14, DD +0.13, HLNE +0.13, GEO +0.12, XYL +0.12, KBR +0.11, WAT +0.08, AME +0.08, WEC +0.06, SYNH +0.06, SABR +0.06, SEE +0.05, ETN +0.05, CNP +0.04, MPLX +0.04, LDOS +0.03, AINV +0.03, SAGE +0.02, OTLY +0.02, HSC +0.01.
  • Flat: DEA +0.00, PEG +0.00, HSIC +0.00, TAP +0.00.
  • Misses: ATKR (3.11), UBER (1.06), BPMC (0.45), JBLU (0.36), ASTE (0.33), THRM (0.17), ESPR (0.13), SPGI (0.12), AQUA (0.09), ENTG (0.05), IDXX (0.05), TSEM (0.04), ETRN (0.01).
  • Still to Report:  EOLS , EXPD , ITW , IPGP , SWI , SPWR.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ON, MPWR, SANM, SBAC, ANET, AXNX, AMKR, ZI, INST, VRNS, HLIT, PLOW OTTR, GEO, ENTG, THRM, BLD, ARNC, MAR, AME, RACE, RGEN of note.
  • Negative Guidance: KFRC, WWD, EVER, EBS, SYNH, DD, ZBRA, IDXX, WAT, HSC, SPGI of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 08/01/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PINS +20%, PINS +19%, FFIE +16%, AXLA +16%, RIG +16%, CNSL +13%, EVER +12%, ZI +11%, GEO +10%, CLAR +9%, TA +8%, ATKR +8%, AHCO +7%, HLIT +6%, RHP +6%, CNO +6%, ACT +6%, COWN +6%, SANM +6%, DVA +5%, UNVR +5%, OTTR +5%, ANET +4%, CAR +4%, HUN +4%, ENSG +4%.
  • Gap Down: WWD -11%, TMDX -7%, GNW -5%, MSA -5%, KRYS -5%, CENX -5%, PLOW -4%, NLY -4%.

Insider Action: ALDX, BX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 08/01/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: CAT, UBER, PINS, CAR, RCL, SPG, COWN, ANET, ZOOM (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Nancy Pelosi to Visit Taiwan as China Threatens Military Action. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Manchin Spending Deal Includes Billions in Oil Import Taxes. (Bloomberg)
  •  U.S. warned China not to respond House Speaker Pelosi’s visit. (NYT)
  • Italian Premier Mario Draghi resigns. (Bloomberg)
  • J.P. Morgan Marko Kolanovic says stocks will rebound in second half of year. (Bloomberg)
  • Chinese fighter jets flew close to Taiwan as warns will not sit by idly. (FT)
  • U.S. plans to stop TSMC (TSM) and Intel (INTC) from building additional chip plants in China. (Bloomberg)
  • Apple (AAPL) removes mask mandate for most workers. (Verge)
  • California, New York and Illinois declare Moneypox a health emergency. (CNBC)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at Pepsi (PEP) investment in healthy energy drink maker Celsius. Nikola (NKLA) to buy battery biz Romeo Power (RMO) for $144 million.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 80%…lost count how many days in a row!  Updated 08/01/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President virtually joins an event in Michigan to mark the signing of Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s Executive Directive to implement the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, 2:45 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT 
  • June JOLTS – Job Openings is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 11.245 million. There is no estimate so we will watch for a comparison to May.
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • BRP Group (BRP) acquires National Health Plans & Benefits Agency.
  • Korn/Ferry (KFY) has acquired Infinity Consulting Solutions.
  • Leidos (LDOS) to acquire Cobham Aviation Services Australia’s Special Mission business.
  • Royal Gold (RGLD) Announces Acquisition of Additional Royalty Interest on World-Class Producing Cortez Gold Complex in Nevada, Adding Significant Scale, Duration and Optionality to the Royal Gold Portfolio.
  • Voya Financial (VOYA) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Czech Asset Management.
  • Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) to buy Cowen Group (COWN) in all cash deal. $39 a share. Will be modestly accretive to 2023 EPS.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • KBW Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Community Bank Investor Conference 2022 (08/01/22-08/03/22
  • Company Meetings: NKLA, TTNP, UVV
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: FLUX, RERE, TAP
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Alliance Investor Summit Q3.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Alzheimer’s Association International Conference.
    • Flash Memory Conference & Expo 2022
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • National Medical Association (NMA) (R) Annual Convention & Scientific Assembly (07/30/22-08/03/22)
        • Alzheimer Association International Conference (AAIC) 2022 (07/31/22-08/04/22)
        • Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum 2022 (07/31/22-08/03/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: