CAPIS Morning Note – 07/13/23: Stock Futures Higher, Day Two of Inflation Data with Wholesale Side Today in PPI

Overnight Summary:  The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4472.16 higher by 0.72% from Tuesday at 4439.26 by 0.67%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4525.75 at 5:25 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4507.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 18 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at…

Overnight Summary:  The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4472.16 higher by 0.72% from Tuesday at 4439.26 by 0.67%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4525.75 at 5:25 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4507.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 18 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 18.40 from 17.80 yesterday.  The average for May/June average was 19.94 from 21.63 in May. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +15 points and is higher by 0.35% at 7:00 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: MLKN +0.02 of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Liquid Death Hires Goldman (GS), Aims For 2024 IPO. (Information)
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Better World Acquisition Corp. (BWAC) Announces Liquidation.
    • Denali Capital Acquisition Corp. (DECA) Announces Extension of Deadline to Complete an Initial Business Combination.
    •  FACT Boards of Complete Solaria and Freedom Acquisition I Corp. Approve Business Combination; Additional $10 Million Commitment Made by T.J. Rodgers.
    • Healthcare AI Acquisition Corp. (HAIA) Announces Additional Contribution to Trust Account to Extend Period to Consummate Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • BCYC: Announces Pricing of $200 Million Public Offering of American Depositary Shares and Non-Voting Ordinary Shares.
    • SVRA: Announces Pricing of $80 Million Underwritten Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants at $3 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AULT: Announces a Second Partial Distribution of TOG Securities of Approximately $0.37 for each share of Ault Alliance Common Stock.
    • BCYC: Proposed $200 Million Public Offering of American Depositary Shares and Non-Voting Ordinary Shares . (GS, Jefferies and Leerink bookmanager)
    • GLMD: Filed Form F-1/A Addendum.
    • INBS: Filed Form S-1.. Class A and B Units consisting of shares of common stock and warrants.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • HSIC: Announced that it has closed on a new $750 million credit facility with a maturity date of July 2026.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Holiday:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: None of note.
    • Trading Down: CYRX -24, VSAT -21, BLFS -7% of note.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • The S&P 500 is now 3% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022.
    • U.S. Federal Trade Commission Says Will Appeal Loss In Effort To Stop Microsoft (MSFT) From Buying Activision Blizzard (ATVI). (Court Filing)
    • CCL RCL NCLH: Norovirus outbreaks surging on cruise ships this year  More than a dozen outbreaks of the gastrointestinal illness have been reported on cruises so far in 2023 – more than any other full calendar year in the last decade. (Carl Q tweet CNBC)
    • Alphabet (GOOG): Google updates policy to open new ways to transact blockchain-based digital content within apps and games on Google Play. (Google Blog)
    • Cirrus Logic (CRUS) implements workforce reduction of approximately 5% in response to overall market conditions; CEO John Forsyth to reduce base salary by 10%. (MarketWatch)
    • Imax (IMAX) proposes to buy out China unit to fuel growth. (MarketWatch)
    • Assets Under Management (MoM):
      • Victory Capital (VCTR) reports assets under management of $161.6 billion vs. $154.8 billion.
      • AllianceBernstein (AB) announces that preliminary assets under management increased to $691 billion during June 2023 from $670 billion at the end of May.
      • Invesco (INV) reports assets under management for June of $1,538.2 billion, an increase of 3.4% versus previous month-end.
      • Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt (APAM) reports preliminary assets under management of $143.0 billion as of June 30, 2023; Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $69.1 billion of total firm AUM.
      • Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS) reports June AUM of $168.3 billion.
      • Franklin Resources (BEN) today reported preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1.43 trillion at June 30, 2023, compared to $1.40 trillion at May 31, 2023.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) Debuts Trading on Nasdaq Capital Markets.
    • Psychemedics Corporation (PMD) Announces CEO Succession Plan.
    • Sunworks (SUNW) Appoints Mark C. Trout as Group CEO of the Residential Solar Segment.
    • The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Board of Directors Extends Robert A. Iger’s Contract as CEO Through 2026.
    • The Trade Desk (TTD) to Join the Nasdaq-100 Index beginning July 17th, 2023.
    • XWELL, Inc. (XWEL) Appoints Suzanne Scrabis as Chief Financial Officer.
    •  Zentek (ZTEK) Announces Updates to Senior Management Team.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • VERO: Form 8K.. As previously disclosed, on May 15, 2023, Venus Concept Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • LGHL trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Bassett (BSET) Increases Quarterly Dividend by 12.5%.
    • Fastenal Company (FAST) Announces Cash Dividend.
    • Ryder (R) Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:
    • KB Home (KBH): CFO sold 108396 shares at $51.15 worth ~$5.54 million.
    • Atlassian (TEAM): Director sold 10000 shares at $168.13 worth ~$1.68 million.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +17, Dow Jones +81,  NASDAQ +106, and Russell 2000 +8 . (as of 7:56 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.58 from 15.28 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil lower with Brent Crude Oil higher and Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.822% from 3.954% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $30,530.74 from $30,728.02 yesterday, higher by 0.72%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stock indexes advanced Wednesday after CPI inflation data for June came in cooler than Wall Street expected. Bond yields fell.   The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to close at the highest level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 1.2% higher. The latest CPI data showed that consumer prices rose 3% in June from a year earlier, the slowest pace in more than two years, March 2021. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2% from May. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: 

  • Friday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DAL +0.28, PEP +0.13, CAG +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: FAST (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: CTAS, PGR of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: DAL of note.
  • Negative Guidance: MLKN, CYRX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: None of note.
  • Gap Down: CYRX -30%, VSAT -22%, MLKN -6% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  ASAN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Five Things to Know Before The Stock Market Opens This Morning (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Fund Titans Are Betting Everything Gaining Against the Dollar. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Shopify Shames Employees With Cost Calculator for Pointless Meetings. (Bloomberg)
  • Secretary of State Blinken to meet with top Chinese diplomat on sidelines of ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (CNN)
  • Stocks Extend Rally as Risk-On Mood Sinks Dollar: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Chinese Premier Xi gets serious about boosting private sector as economy slumps. (Bloomberg)
  • IEA trims oil demand forecast first time this year. (CNBC)
  • Hollywood Actors Union to Vote on Strike After Talks Fall Apart. (Bloomberg)
  • Tesla (TSLA) in talks to set up India factory for electric cars. (TimesOfIndia)
  • Delta Airlines (DAL) beats estimates and raises guidance. (CNBC)
  • Pepsi (PEP) beats estimates and raises guidance. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Steady as she goes….100%…day two.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President participates in a bilateral meeting with President Sauli Niinistö of the Republic of Finland (1:00 PM Local), 6:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a family photo with Nordic Leaders (2:00 PM Local), 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in the U.S.-Nordic Leaders’ Summit (2:15 PM Local), 7:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President holds a joint press conference with President Sauli Niinistö of the Republic of Finland (5:30 PM Local), 10:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Helsinki, Finland en route to Washington, DC (7:40 PM Local), 12:40 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to the White House, 9:25 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 9:35 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • June PPI is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to stay at 0.20%.
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • June Treasury Budget is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT and came in last month at $-240.3 billion.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Christopher Waller 6:45 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • AG Mortgage Investment Trust (MITT) Submits Offer to Acquire Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation for Implied Price of $9.88 Per Share.
  • Chindata (CD) announces receipt of “Take Private” proposal from CMC.
  • Echo Lake Capital Increase Offer to Acquire Quince Therapeutics, Inc. (QNCX)
  • Exxon (XOM) To Buy Denbury (DEN) For $89.45 Per Share In All Stock Deal.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: