CAPIS Morning Note – 05/31/22: Can Stocks Rally For A Second Week In A Row? Futures Lower So Far.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4158.24 (higher by 2.47%) from  4057.84 (higher by 1.99%) on Thursday. Futures have traded mixed overnight but are now lower. The overnight high of 4180 was hit at 8:00 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4121 at 5:45 a.m. EDT, a range of 59 points high…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4158.24 (higher by 2.47%) from  4057.84 (higher by 1.99%) on Thursday. Futures have traded mixed overnight but are now lower. The overnight high of 4180 was hit at 8:00 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4121 at 5:45 a.m. EDT, a range of 59 points high to low which is a higher range of late with 45 the average. At 7:20 a.m. EDT the current price is 4147 which is -0.19% and 8 points.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • BitNile (NILE) Announces Pricing of Public Offering of 123,423 Shares of 13.00% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BTAI: Filed Form S-3.. 278,520 Shares of Common Stock.
    • IMMX: Filed Form S-1.. 1,683,502 Shares Common Stock.
    • REXR: Filed Form 424B5.. $1,000,000,000 Common Stock.
    • RNLX: Filed Form F-3..11,075,220 Ordinary Shares 1,052,197 American Depositary Shares.
    • SPCB: Filed Form F-1.. 5,648,689 Ordinary Shares.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ENTX: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf .. 3,763,740 Ordinary Shares offered by the Selling Shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • GCMG: Filed Form S-3..$350,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • RAIN: Filed Form S-3.. $250 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
    • ZEUS: Filed Form S-3.. $200 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) Announces Cash Tender Offers for up to $800 million in Aggregate Principal Amount of Senior Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: TRHC 66.96%, GME 41.86%, PLAB 39.15%, RRGB 36.32%, MOD 35.54%, LPI 34.71%, HMLP 34.03%, CRK 31.86%, SM 31.52%, SWN 30.54%, FRO 30.49%, GRPN 28.67%, DLTR 28.55%, M 28.39%, RRC 27.54%, AR 25.98%, CAL 25.83%, NBR 25.23%, JWN 25.05%, PTEN 24.65%.
    • Trading Down: IOVA -54.41%, ACB -41.56%, MRTX -36.31%, TXMD -31.29%, AVYA -23.65%, SIEN -23.44%, OSUR -20.74%, AERI -20.70%, ANF -19.38%, SQQQ -18.85%, NTNX -18.68%, NLS -17.04%, MGNX -13.07%, TWOU -12.26%, TCDA -12.20%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • SP 500 best weekly move since 2020 up 6.5%.
    • U.S. doctors reconsider Pfizer’s (PFE) Paxlovid for lower-risk COVID patients. (Reuters)
    • Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 tops 26,000, highest since March.
    • Raytheon (RTX) Missiles & Defense awarded $624 million for Stinger missile production.
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) awarded a US Navy $254 mln price modification to previously awarded contract for SEWIP.
    • Boeing (BA): Norwegian to purchase 50 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft.
    • Russian/Ukraine News:
      • Russia to make June debt payments outside western systems. (TASS)
      • Russian Forces Push Into Pivotal City in Eastern Ukraine. (WSJ)
      • Oil prices jump after EU leaders agree to ban most Russian crude imports (CNBC)
      • Russia’s Gazprom says has suspended gas supplies to Netherlands.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week: SNAP, VMW, M, ABT, ZM, LYFT, AAPL  (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: Escalating U.S. Sanctions on Russia.  (NYT)
    • Fed Governor Christopher Waller : “I support tightening policy by another 50 basis points for several meetings. In particular, I am not taking 50 basis-point hikes off the table until I see inflation coming down closer to our 2 percent target. And, by the end of this year, I support having the policy rate at a level above neutral so that it is reducing demand for products and labor, bringing it more in line with supply and thus helping rein in inflation”.
    • Canada will be implementing a national freeze on handguns to prevent individuals from bringing newly acquired handguns into Canada and from buying, selling, and transferring handguns within the country.
    • WHO labels monkeypox a “moderate” public health risk.
    • German inflation hit 7.9% in May, highest since reunification: data. (MarketWatch)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: SNOW, CHWY, FB, LRCX, GOOG, MU, NFLX, TER.
      • Cautious View: BA.
      • Mixed View: JPM, C, WFC, FRC, KEY.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Allegion (ALLE) announced that John H. Stone will succeed David D. Petratis as president and CEO.
    • Avid Tech (AVID) elects John P. Wallace as Board Chair.
    • BM Technologies (BMTX) Receives Notice from NYSE American.
    • Enel Américas (ENIA) announces voluntary delisting of ADSs from the NYSE; last day of trading will be June 19, 2022.
    • Foot Locker (FL) announces that W. Scott Martin, Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer of Foot Locker, will depart from the company.
    • Molecular Data Inc. (MKD) Receives NASDAQ Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Requirements.
    • Realogy (RLGY) to change its name and ticker to Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS).
    • Renovare Environmental (RENO) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Letter.
    • Rayonier Adv. Materials (RYAM) announced that De Lyle W. Bloomquist has been appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company.
    • Sprott Inc (SII) appoints Whitney George as CEO.
    • Superior Group (SGC) announce that the Board of Directors of the Company has appointed Michael Koempel to the role of CFO of the Company.
    • Unilever PLC (UL) announces the appointment of Nelson Peltz as a Non-Executive Director of the company and as a member of its Compensation Committee.
    • Zentalis (ZNTL) Pharma promotes Cam Gallagher to President.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • KE Holdings (BEKE) announces today that it proposes to establish a share repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to $1 billion of its ADSs over a 12-month period.
    • STMicroelectronics (STM) Announces Status of Common Share Repurchase Program.
    • Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Home authorizes increase in the amount available for repurchases of its common stock to $500 million from $250 million previously.
    • Trivago (TRVG) authorized a program to repurchase up to 10 million of the Company’s American Depositary Shares.
  • Stock Splits:
    • FAMI trading split price.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • HD will trade ex-div tomorrow.
    • NEM will trade ex-div tomorrow.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -21, Dow Jones -213, NASDAQ -7, and Russell 2000 -11. Europe mixed and Asia higher ex Japan.  VIX Futures are at 27.50 from 27.60 Friday morning and the VIX closed at 25.72 from 27.50 Friday. Gold and Silver lower and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures higher and Natural Gas lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.813% from 2.27% Friday morning. Bitcoin is at $31,756 from $28,966 Friday morning and is higher by 3.53% this morning. As of 8:08 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 05/27/22 Close:   

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Real Estate, Basic Materials, Industrials, Financial, Healthcare of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: none of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Basic Materials of note.

Friday capped off a solid week for the indexes clawing out from the edge of a “bear market” and ending eight straight weekly declines.  NASDAQ was up 3.33% and 6.8% for the week.  Updated 05/27/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: CRM, HPQ, TCOM, STNE, APPS, SPWH of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: DCI, CPRI, CONN of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BEKE +0.35.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: BEKE of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 05/27/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: CTT +24%, AUY +17%, ELDN +16%, SWVL +5%, BEKE +4%, CVE +4%.
  • Gap Down: GFI -12%, CS -4%.

Insider Action: TELA, BBY, TTD, AZO sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 05/26/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: CS UL AUY  (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Top Gun: Maverick opened to rave reviews and brought in $156 million, a Memorial Day Weekend record. (WSJ)
  • Shanghai offers tax rebates to help out companies as lockdowns end June 1st. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden to meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the White House today. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden writes op-ed in The Wall Street Journal on inflation and job growth. (WSJ)
  • Bitcoin moves above $30,000 as China eases Covid restrictions. (Bloomberg)
  • Morgan Stanley says last week’s rally has limited upside. (Bloomberg)
  • Wheat crop hurt by dry winter and spring rains. (Fox Business)
  • Crypto drop shows stocks are a more stable way for wealth creation. (USA Today)
  • Thousands of flights were cancelled over weekend. (ABC News)
  • Robinhood (HOOD) settled 2020 consumer lawsuit. (Reuters)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at the volatility of stocks and whether stocks are flirting with a recession. Stories watching include $7 gas, summer blackouts, wine sales strong at restaurants.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes to 60% from 54%.  Updated 05/27/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President holds a bilateral meeting with The Right Honorable Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister of New Zealand, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President has lunch with The Vice President, 12:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President meets with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to discuss the state of the American and global economy, and the President’s top economic priority: addressing inflation, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President meets with BTS to discuss the need to come together in solidarity, Asian inclusion and representation, and addressing anti-Asian hate crimes and discrimination, 3:00 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • FHFA House Price Index 9:00 a.m. EDT
  • Chicago PMI 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • Consumer Confidence 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • Fed Discount Rate Minutes 2:00 p.m. EDT
  • Farm Prices  3:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Yamana Gold(AUY) to be acquired by Gold Fields (GFI) for $6.7 billion.
  • Evotec (EVO) Adds Cell Therapy Manufacturing Facility with Acquisition of Rigenerand.
  • TherapeuticsMD (TXMD) and EW Healthcare Partners Announce Definitive Agreement for EW Healthcare Partners to acquire TherapeuticsMD.
  • Timken (TKR) Completes Acquisition of Spinea.
  • Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) Announces the Acquisition of Quasar Platform.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bernstein SDC Analyst Best Ideas Day
    • Credit Suisse Brazil Tech Series: Fintechs
    • Jefferies Virtual Internet Summit 2022
    • Jefferies Software Conference 2022 (05/31/22-06/02/22)
    • KeyBanc Capital Markets Industrials and Basic Materials Conference 2022 (05/31/22-06/02/22)
    • Wells Fargo West Coast MedTech Tour 2022 (05/31/22-06/03/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Bank of America Securities 2022 Innovative China Conference(05/30/22-06/10/22)
        • Deutsche Bank dbaccess 11th Annual Global Financial Services Conference 2022 (05/30/22-06/02/22)
        • Benchmark Healthcare House Call Virtual 1×1 Conference 2022 (05/26/22-06/02/22)
  • Company Meetings: HMTV, NYC.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: SIMMNY.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Society of Clinical Psychopharmacology (ASCP) Annual Meeting 2022 (05/31/22-06/03/22)
    • Texas Emergency Management Conference 2022 (05/31/22-06/03/22)
    • Satellite Industry Forum 2022
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • Brewers Forum & 38th EBC Congress 2022 (05/29/22-06/01/22) 
        • 3rd Annual Gene Therapy Analytical Development – Europe 2022 (05/30/22-06/01/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: