CAPIS Morning Note – 05/30/23: President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy Agree To Debt Deal, Now Hard Work Begins to Get House and Senate on Board.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4205.45 higher by 1.30% from Thursday at 4151.28 higher by 0.88%. The overnight high of 4239 was hit at 5:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4220.75 at 11:35 p.m. EDT, a range of ~19 points high to low which is a mid-vol night.  At 7:15…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4205.45 higher by 1.30% from Thursday at 4151.28 higher by 0.88%. The overnight high of 4239 was hit at 5:55 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4220.75 at 11:35 p.m. EDT, a range of ~19 points high to low which is a mid-vol night.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the current price was 4232.75 which is 0.46% and 19.50 points. Stock Futures also were in play on Sunday night into Monday and rose 8 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is 20.20 from 21.30.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

   

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Canadian Solar’s (CSIQ) subsidiary CSI Solar IPO pricing announced by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Aetherium Acquisition Corp. (GMFIU) Receives Notice Regarding Late Form 10-Q Filing From Nasdaq.
    • East Resources Acquisition (ERES) Company Receives Expected Notice From NASDAQ Regarding Delayed Quarterly Report.
    • Revelstone Capital Acquisition Corp. (RCAC) Receives Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Quarterly Report.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ATHX: Filed Form S-3.. 5,685,000 Shares.
    • ELP: Started to structure a potential primary and/or secondary offering of common shares or units in connection with the process of dispersion of the share capital of the Company.
    • LUCY: Filed Form S-1.. 300,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • OCS: Announces Launch of Proposed Public Offering of Ordinary Shares.
    • SDIG: Filed Form 424B5.. $15,000,000 Common Stock.
    • SKYX: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $20,000,000 Common Stock.
    • SLRX: Filed Form S-3.. 11,163,637 Shares of Common Stock.
    • SNDX: Filed Form 424B5.. $200,000,000 Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering:
    • BDRX: Closing of $3.32 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BCYC: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • SRE: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • STEL: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • AKAN: Announces Termination of Loan Agreement.
    • SRG: Makes $200 Million Loan Prepayment.
    • TNP: To redeem all of its 8.75% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Shares
  • Tender Offer:
    • SSYS: Board of Directors unanimously rejects Nano Dimension’s (NNDM) partial tender offer.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • SCKT: Strengthens Balance Sheet with a Secured Subordinated Convertible Note Financing of $1.6 Million.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: GHL 114.2%, TISI 88.3%, MRVL 44.3%, GRPN 31.9%, ANF 30.9%, MOD 29.2%, FN 25.0%, NVDA 24.7%, PACW 23.7%, PLAB 22.5%, MPWR 21.0%, UCTT 20.9%, RCUS 20.5%, COHR 20.2%, AMD 20.0%, AVGO 19.4%, ANET 18.4%.
    • Trading Down: MNK -51.6%, GCO -35.9%, IEP -35.7%, PTCT -26.7%, PLCE -25.2%, ICPT -24.0%, TLRY -23.0%, IART -22.8%, BIG -20.7%, EHTH -17.0%, RIGL -16.1%, ATRA -16.1%, ADAP -15.7%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen Sends Letter to Congressional Leadership on the Debt Limit. Estimates that Treasury will have insufficient resources to satisfy obligations if Congress has not raised or suspended the debt limit by June 5. (Release) (MarketWatch)
    • AI Stocks Are Flying, but Don’t Call the Craze a Bubble. NVDA, META, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL (WSJ)
    • Municipal Bond Issuers on Edge as Debt Ceiling Deadline Nears. (WSJ)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week: TGT, NVDA, PACW, PDCE, CVX, ZM, ANF  (WSJ)
    • The President and House Speaker McCarthy agreed in principle to a debt deal that now needs to pass the House and Senate. (CNBC)
    • Tech Stock Rally Leaves Small-Caps in the Dust. (WSJ)
    • World’s Most Valuable Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) Unveils More AI Products After $184 Billion Rally. (Bloomberg)
    • Why Are Markets So Calm? It’s Revenge of the Quant Funds. (WSJ)
    • Restaurants expect strong sales this summer. Consumers aren’t so sure. (CNBC)
    • TSLA: Elon Musk Expected To Visit China This Week – Sources Elon Musk Expected To Meet Senior Chinese Officials, Visit Shanghai Plant. (Sources)
    • Tuesday at 3 PM ET, the House Rules Committee will convene to prepare the debt ceiling bill for Wednesday’s floor discussion.
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: NVDA, WYNN, NFLX of note.
      • Cautious View:  None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Bird (BRDS) Receives NYSE Notice of Non-Compliance with Continued Listing Standards.
    • Contango ORE (CTGO) Set to Join Russell 3000® and Russell Microcap Indexes.
    • Castellum, Inc. (CTM) Set to Join Russell Microcap® Index.
    • electroCore, Inc. (ECOR) Announces Departure of JP Errico from the Board of Directors.
    • ETAO Nasdaq Deficiency Letter.
    • Shopify (SHOP) nominates former Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor to join its board of directors.
    • Smart Powerr Corp. (CREG) Receives Notice of Filing Delinquency From Nasdaq.
    • StoneCo (STNE) Announces Mateus Scherer as new CFO, Change in Role of our President Augusto Lins and Split of Board Committees.
    • SatixFy (SATX) Appoints Nir Barkan as Acting Chief Executive Officer.
    • ST Energy Transition I Ltd. (STET) Announces Cancellation of Extraordinary General Meeting.  Receives Notification of Deficiency from the NYSE Related to Delayed Filing of Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
    • Team, Inc. (TISI) Regains Compliance With NYSE Continued Listing Standards.
    • Transdigm Group (TDG) COO to retire; promotes Mike Lisman and Joel Reiss as Co-COOs, names Sarah Wynne as CFO.
    • Trevena (TRVN) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Listing and Reaffirms Expected Near-Term Milestones.
    • Unilever PLC (UL) CFO informs Board of retirement in May 2024.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • TAC renews share repurchase program.
    • TransAlta (TAC) announces acceptance of normal course issuer bid in which company may purchase up to 14.0 mln shares of common stock.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Golden Minerals (AUMN) to Effect 1-for-25 Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • GS Goes ex div tomorrow for $2.50.
    • LMT Goes ex div tomorrow for $3.00.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +24.55, Dow Jones -12,  NASDAQ +195, and Russell 2000 +5. (as of 7:59 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex the ASX 200 and Europe is lower ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 18.85 from 20.10 Friday.  Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower from Friday. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.727% from 3.787% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $27,961.20 from $26,443 Friday, higher by 1.02%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stocks climbed Friday as a potential deal to raise the debt ceiling began to take shape and a rally in technology shares gained steam, capping a mostly positive week for major indexes.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the way, gaining 2.2% as enthusiasm for companies developing artificial-intelligence technologies kept building. The S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 329 points, or 1%.  The Nasdaq, which is off to its best start in more than 30 years, rose 2.5% for the week, its fifth consecutive week of gains. The S&P 500 ended the week slightly higher, while the Dow dropped 1%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: 

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SKY (0.09) of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: LXRX +15%, IOVA +15%, COHR +8%, SMCI +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: None of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: CHPT, F, NVDA, TSLA, AI, COIN, AMD, PARA  (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Debt Limit Deal Faces Final Test in Congress to Avert Default. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: World’s Most Valuable Chipmaker Nvidia Unveils More AI Products After $184 Billion Rally. (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures Rise on AI Fueled Rally, Bonds Rally: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Moscow hit by biggest drone attack as Russia blames Ukraine. (Bloomberg)
  • President Erdogan wins re-election in Turkey. (NYT)
  • President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy push to get debt deal through its first test. (Yahoo Finance)
  • Toyota (TM), Daimler to strike a deal to combine Japanese truck operations. (Reuters)
  • State Farm stops accepting homeowners insurance in California due to wildfires and construction costs. (CNBC)
  • Behind the sudden surge in ADHD diagnoses. (Apple News)
  • Walt Disney’s (DIS) “The Little Mermaid” brought in $117.5 million over the Memorial Day Weekend. (CNN)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score bounces to 74% from 51%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The First Lady depart New Castle, Delaware en route to the White House, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at the White House, 11:05 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Director of the Office of Budget and Management Shalanda Young, 2:45 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Redbook Sales 8:55  a.m. EDT
  • March S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to -2.30% from 0.4%.
  • May Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 99.50 from 101.30.
  • FHFA House Price Index 10:00  a.m. EDT
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 1:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Ellington Financial and Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (AAIC) Announce Definitive Merger Agreement.
  • Taro Pharma (TARO) Says Sun Pharma Made Buyout Proposal At $38 per share.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Securities Emerging Markets Debt and Equity Conf (05/30/23-06/02/23)
    • KeyBanc Industrials & Basic Materials Conference (05/30/23-06/01/23)
    • Mizuho Autos Conference (05/30/23-05/31/23)
    • Stifel Tailoring Genes: Genetic Medicines Day
    • TD Cowen Oncology Innovation Summit (05/30/23-05/31/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: