CAPIS Morning Note – 05/05/23: Stocks Rebound After Several Days of Selling, Will it Stick?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4061.72 lower by -0.72% from Wednesday at 4090.75 lower by -0.70%. The overnight high of 4103.50 was hit at 6:45 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4071.50 at 4:30 p.m. EDT, a range of ~32 points high to low which is what you find when volatility…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4061.72 lower by -0.72% from Wednesday at 4090.75 lower by -0.70%. The overnight high of 4103.50 was hit at 6:45 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4071.50 at 4:30 p.m. EDT, a range of ~32 points high to low which is what you find when volatility is high.  At 7:00 a.m. EDT, the current price was 4099.25 which is 0.58% and 23.50 points. As we move into mid-May we will use a 10-day moving average of overnight ranges.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: RGA $1.81, LGND $1.39, COLL $1.01, BKNG $0.81, BCC +0.80, KWR $0.56, COIN $0.53, PBA $0.47, SDGR $0.47, RDFN $0.46, OPEN $0.44, FNKO $0.43, CVNA $0.36, DKNG $0.35, SPXC $0.33, DLB $0.29, POST $0.29, OTEX $0.27, ED $0.26, AIG $0.21, TEAM $0.21, PCTY $0.21, MGRC $0.20, GDOT $0.19, FIVN $0.17, MSI $0.17, LYFT $0.15, QLYS $0.13, CHUY $0.10, AAPL $0.09, DASH $0.08, MTD $0.08, NCR $0.07, DBX $0.06, YELP $0.03, MCHP $0.02,
  • Flat:  of note.
  • Misses:   SIMO $-0.37 BECN $-0.37, BIO $-0.36, CWK $-0.29, EXPE $-0.23, USM $-0.19, GDDY $-0.19, BMBL $-0.13, AVID $-0.10, LNT $-0.06, GT $-0.03, RMAX $-0.01, FND $-0.01.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • Immunogen (IMGN) priced at $26.00, 26 million shares.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • Zynex (ZYXI) priced convertible offering for 2026.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • Equinor (EQNR) files ADS offering.
    • 4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) files $100 million share offering.
    • Icici Bank (IBM) files 3.775 million shares offering.
    • Si-Bone (SIBN) files 3.775 million shars offering.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • Cipher Mining (CIFR) files 187,109,827 shares by selling shareholder.
    • Axonics Modulation (AXNX) files an offering.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • Ceragon (CRNT) files $150 million mixed shelf offering.
    • APi Group (APG) files mixed shelf offering.
    • BridgeBio (BBIO) files mixed shelf offering.
    • Baycom (BCML) files $200 mixed shelf offering.
    • Tenon Medical (TNON) files $50 million mixed shelf offering.
    • Moderna (MRNA) files a mixed shelf offering.
    • Axonics Modulation (AXNX) files a mixed shelf offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up:   CVNA +25.9%, BILL +13.9%, FIVN +12.8%, NCR +10.9%, YELP +9.9%, DKNG +9.2%, APLS +8.9%, COIN +8.6%, STEM +8.3%, BL +7.4%, SPXC +7.4%, DBX +7%, FNKO +7%, BMBL +6.9% LYV +6.8%, ACCO +6.6%, OTEX +6.5%, XPOF +6.3%, LASR +6.2%, SG +6.2%, BOOM +5.9%, FIGS +5.8%, AMN +5.7%, INGN +5.6%, RMAX +5.6%, EXPE +5.4%, LOCO +4.9%, HASI +4.7%, PWSC +4.6%, MGRC +4.5%, HTGC +4.4%, QLYS +4.4%, RRR +4.4% of note.
    • TradingDown: TRUP -36%, CLFD -23.6%, CDLX -15.4%, LYFT -15.3%, TEAM -12.7%, MPWR -10.7%, FND -7.5%, MERC -7.5%, ATSG -6.1%, DH -6.1%, SDGR -6%, MCHP 5.8%, VRRM -5.4%, AZEK -4.6%, CYTK -4.6%, ALTR -4.3%, BGS -4.1%, SIMO -4.1%, IRTC -4%, AVID -3.9%, TDS -3.6%, BKNG -3.4%, GDDY -3.1%, PCTY -3.1% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Apple (AAPL) beats on revenues and earnings and is trading up 2.50% at 8:30 p.m. EDT.
    • FDIC to impose fees on banks to replenish insurance fund. (Bloomberg)
    • New phase of the banking crisis pits fears against fundamentals. (NYT)
    • Oil set for worst run of year as recession fears rattle markets. (Bloomberg)
    • American Bankers Association (ABA) urges SEC to probe short sales, reduce abusive trading. (Reuters)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Ambrx Biopharma (AMAM) names Andrew Aromando as COO.
    • John Forrester to retire as CEO of Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) on June 30th.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
      • Willscot Mini Mobile (WSC) ups repurchase to $1 billion.
      • Graham (GHC) to buyback up to 500,000 shares of its Class B Common Shares.
      • Apple (AAPL) increases buyback by $90 billion.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Icahn Enterprises (IEP) declares quarterly dividend early of $2.00 to address Hindenburg Report attacking the company.
    • Murphy USA (MUSA) ups quarterly dividend to $0.38 from $0.37.
    • Apple (AAPL) raises dividend by 4%.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +30, Dow Jones +178,  NASDAQ +93, and Russell 2000 +18. (as of 8:03 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex the Kospi while Europe is higher. VIX Futures are at 20.43 from 20,50 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.409% from 3.347% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $29,160 from $29.253 yesterday, higher by 0.80%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive SectorsReal Estate and Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative SectorsIndustrials, Financials, Communication Services, Health Care and Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: KKR BNTX TSN VTRS MDGL TGNA FRPT THS BEAM SIX DK HNI BTAI LL.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  TAC $1.10 MGA $0.28 CNK $0.25 CI $0.17 PBF $0.16 OMI $0.14 PNM $0.14 ROAD $0.07 HUN $0.06 CBOE $0.03 CNHI $0.03 D $0.02 ENB $0.01 JCI $0.01 of note.
  • Flat:  of note.
  • Misses: WBD $-0.32 GTN $-0.19 FLR $-0.09 TILE $0.04  of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ROAD FLGT MGA OMI  of note.
  • Negative Guidance: D EPAM TWST of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up:  CVNA +39%, BILL +15.5%, FIVN +14.2%, NCR +13%, DKNG +11.7%, STEM +9.9%, BMBL +9.8%, FLGT +9.1%, COIN +9%, YELP +9%, OPEN +8.9%, LASR +8.9%,  OTEX +8.9%, DBX +8.1%, XPOF +7.9%, APLS +7.9%, BL +7.8%, SPXC +7.6%, FNKO +7.5%, RLJ +7.4%, ACCO +6.6%, OMI +6.5%, MGA +6.4%, COLL +5.9%, LYV +5.9%, EXPE +5.7%, INSW +5.5%, HTGC +5.3%, SEM +5.1%, CWAN +5%, JAMF +5%, HASI +5%, of note.
  • Gap Down: TRUP -41.4%, CLFD -27.6%, CDLX -17.9%, LYFT -15.2%, TEAM -13.2%, TWST -12.8%, MPWR -10.9%, MERC -7.5%, EPAM -6.8%, FND -6.5%, ATSG -6.1%, SIMO -6.1%, WBD -5.9%, MCHP -5.5%, BIO -5.3%, AVID -4.9% of note.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: PacWest Leads Regional Bank Rebound After Bruising Rout. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: Heavy Marijuana Use Increases Schizophrenia in Men, study finds. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank Shares surge after chaotic week: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Tesla (TSLA) hikes price of Model S and Model X in China by $2,750. (Bloomberg)
  • JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon to visit China for the first time in four years. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes to 28% from 31%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • Receives daily briefing at 9:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Meets with the Investing in America Cabinet, Vice President Harris to attend at 11:45 a.m. EDT.

Economic:

  • The monthly Employment Report is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT along with the Unemployment Rate.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Consumer Credit is due out at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers

  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A ActivityNone of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
      •  Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Company Meetings: Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) holds its Annual Conference (05/05/23-05/07/23)
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AA ALC GES HSBC ITW MAN OXY R ZION
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: TRUP
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: