CAPIS Morning Note – 05/04/22: Stocks Up Modestly Into FOMC Announcement At 2:00 p.m. EDT and Presser At 2:30 p.m. EDT.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 4175.48 from 4155.38 on Monday up 0.48%.  Futures have traded higher overnight. The overnight high of 4190 was hit at 7:30 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4,167 at 3:30 a.m. EDT, a range of 23 points high to low which has been atypical range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 4175.48 from 4155.38 on Monday up 0.48%.  Futures have traded higher overnight. The overnight high of 4190 was hit at 7:30 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4,167 at 3:30 a.m. EDT, a range of 23 points high to low which has been atypical range of late with 45 the average. At 7:30 a.m. EDT the current price is 4190 which is 0.42% and 17.50 points.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: MUSA +3.19, LFUS +1.75, FLGT +1.22, AIZ +1.00, DOOR +0.92, CRUS +0.61, PRU +0.49, RDN +0.40, SCI +0.36, IOSP +0.34, SMCI +0.33, PKI +0.29, EHTH +0.28, ABNB +0.27, EIX +0.26, WTS +0.26, INSP +0.22, HURN +0.20, AMD +0.20, AYX +0.19, THG +0.19, KAI +0.18, RRR +0.15, PAYC +0.15, ONTO +0.14, LYFT +0.14, OMI +0.14, VREX +0.14, AIG +0.13, EXR +0.13, MTCH +0.12, WK +0.10, REZI +0.10, ENVA +0.10, JKHY +0.10, MATX +0.10, REG +0.09, HLF +0.09, WERN +0.09, BNFT +0.08, LTHM +0.07, PSA +0.06, TSLX +0.06, VOYA +0.05, OSPN +0.05, BFAM +0.05, NVTA +0.05, CNDT +0.04, FRSH +0.04, PUMP +0.04, LSCC +0.04, VVNT +0.04, ACHC +0.03, MASI +0.03, PRO +0.03, WTI +0.03, RVLV +0.03, ATRC +0.01, STAG +0.01, VIAV +0.01, SPT +0.01.
  • Flat: AMCR +0.00, CRK +0.00, DEI +0.00, PEAK +0.00, SWKS +0.00.
  • Misses: MSTR (8.32), RNR (1.33), CWH (0.18), KAR (0.15), PTCT (0.12), SPNE (0.10), BLKB (0.09), YUMC (0.09), LUNG (0.07), BTG (0.05), PEN (0.05), OSH (0.04), VRSK (0.04), AKAM (0.03), OKE (0.03), INFN (0.03), CZR (0.03), MRCY (0.01), SRC (0.01), SBUX (0.01), WCN (0.01), MTW (0.01), IAG (0.01), DENN (0.01), MNDT (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Austin Gold Corp. (AUST) Prices $13 Million Initial Public Offering of Common Shares.
    • HLVX: Closing of Initial Public Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • Freshpet (FRPT) prices offering of 4,320,988 shares of its common stock at $81.00 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BWV: Filed Form S-1.. 2,432,473 Shares of Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • TRC: Filed Form S-3.. $200Million Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • BVS: Cancels Proposed $415 Million Offering of Senior Notes; Reaffirms Full-Year 2022 Financial Guidance.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up:  LTHM +19%, VVNT +10%, SMCI +10%, BXC +9%, PAYC +9%, AMD +7%, PUMP +7%, REZI +7%, SBUX +5%, EIX +4%, ABNB +4%, DOOR +4%, WERN +4%, LSCC +4%, RRR +4%.
    • Trading Down:  CNTB -27%, LYFT -27%, KZR -23%, INFN -15%, RVLV -11%, HLF -11%, AKAM -10%, MASI -8%, BGFV -8%, FRSH -7%, WK -7%, ANDE -7%, MTCH -7%, VRSK -6%, JKHY -6%, CRK -5%, DIDI -5%, SWKS -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ABNB, LYFT, SBUX, AMD, MTCH, SMCI, AKAM  (CNBC)
    • Elon Musk Said to Plan Taking Twitter (TWTR) Public Again Later. (WSJ)
    • Masimo Corp. (MASI) stock drops more than 10% after mixed Q1 earnings. (MarketWatch)
    • AMD tops $5 billion in revenue for first time, stock pops as annual forecast increased. (MarketWatch)
    • Starbucks (SBUX) suspends its outlook as Covid lockdowns hammer sales in China. (CNBC)
    • Lyft (LYFT) stock plunges 25% after forecast, rider numbers come up short. (MarketWatch)
    • Russian/Ukraine News:
      • China’s Independent Refiners Start Buying Russian Oil At Steep Discounts. (FT)
      • EU confirms ban on Russian oil; will phase out Russian supply of crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year.
      • Russian Submarine in Black Sea Fired Two Kalibr Cruise Missiles at Targets in Ukraine- Interfax Quotes Defence Ministry. (Reuters)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • BuzzFeed (BZFD) announces that Marcela Martin will join BuzzFeed, Inc. as President.
    • BWX Technologies (BWXT) announces that Jan A. Bertsch has been elected as its new chair of the board of directors.
    • Calavo Growers’ (CVGW) CFO to depart for another company.
    • Denny’s Corporation (DENN) Executes Management Succession Plan Through Appointment of Kelli Valade as New Chief Executive Officer and President.
    • DiDi Global (DIDI) discloses in annual filing that SEC has made inquiries regarding its IPO.
    • Diffusion Pharmaceuticals (DFFN) Regains Compliance With Nasdaq Listing Requirements.
    • Purple Innovation (PRPL) announces the appointment of Eric Haynor as its COO.
    • Mission Produce (AVO) names Timothy Bulow as COO.
    • Match Group (MTCH) Board of Directors Names Bernard Kim Chief Executive Officer; Shar Dubey To Remain as Director and Advisor. (CNBC)
    • The ODP Corporation (ODP) Announces Appointment of David Centrella as Executive Vice President and as President of ODP Business Solutions
    • Tupperware (TUP) hires new finance chief.
    • Verisk Analytics (VRSK) appoints Bruce Hansen as Chairperson.
    • Western Midstream (WES) announces the appointment of Kristen Shults to Senior Vice President and CFO.
    • Zynga (ZNGA) Announces Publishing Leadership Update.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • AIG Increased the Shr Repurchase Authorization to $6.5 billion.
    • BlueLinx (BXC) Announces Increase in Share Repurchase Authorization to $100 Million and Entry Into $60 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase Agreement.
    • Gibraltar (ROCK) Announces 3-Year $200 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • GPOR Expands Common Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Increases Repurchase Authorizations to $150 million. (see dividends)
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Fresh Del Monte (FDP) On May 3, 2022, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share.
    • Barrick  (GOLD) Raises dividend to $0.20 per share.
    • Innospec (IOSP) declares 11% increase in semi-annual dividend.
    • JD Announces Special Cash Dividend of $0.63 per share.
    • Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Increases quarterly cash dividend $0.05  to $0.19 per share. Announces Further Acceleration of Dividend Plan and Shareholder Returns. (see buybacks)
    • PepsiCo (PEP) increases quarterly dividend to $1.15 per share from $1.075 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +15, Dow Jones +113, NASDAQ +47,  and Russell 2000 +10.  Europe lower and Asian lower ex Shanghai.  VIX Futures are at 28.45 from 31.30  yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 29.25 from 32.34  on Tuesday. Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.962% from 2.971%. Bitcoin is at $38,996 from $38,456 Tuesday morning and is higher by 3.54% from Tuesday. As of 8:09 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 05/03/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials, Real Estate, Financial, Industrials, Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Stocks were up modestly waiting for the FED announcement for Wednesday. SPX was up 0.48% and the Russell 2000 up 0.85%.  Updated 05/03/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: BKNG, PXD, MET, FTNT, CTSH, O, CTVA, FNV, ALL, EBAY, CERN, ALB, ANSS, CLR, TWLO, VICI, CF, IR, MRO, ATO, PLUG, APA, HST, GDDY, WOLF, GFL, ETSY, AFG, LSI, QRVO, LUMN, LNC, OTEX, JAZZ of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: COP, BUD, ZTS, BDX, D, ICE, SHOP, APD, SRE, BCE, DDOG, PH, APO, MT, CBRE, BLL, K, PPL, RCL, PWR, CAH, TRMB, EPAM, WRK, CCJ, LAMR, MMP, W, FRT, NFE, XRAY, NCLH, HII, OGE, OGN, MIDD of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SBGI +36.41, MRNA +2.96, REGN +1.69, SUN +1.56, UTHR +1.38, SPR +0.62, SITE +0.56, ODP +0.48, FUN +0.38, MAR +0.33, ABC +0.30, ASTE +0.29, STWD +0.25, BDC +0.22, HZNP +0.20, ATI +0.20, BWA +0.19, CDW +0.18, FTS +0.17, GNRC +0.17, GEL +0.16, ROCK +0.16, TECH +0.14, CLH +0.14, TT +0.13, MUR +0.12, EMR +0.11, RACE +0.10, DIN +0.10, VMC +0.10, CRTO +0.09, FDP +0.09, CVS +0.08, CSII +0.08, DCPH +0.08, AVA +0.08, BRKR +0.07, LITE +0.07, IONS +0.06, EDIT +0.05, GTES +0.04, XYL +0.04, PSN +0.03, APG +0.03, CRL +0.03, EVOP +0.02, GOLD +0.02, AJRD +0.02, IDXX +0.02, NYT +0.01.
  • Flat: AVNS +0.00, LIVN +0.00, JCI +0.00, BIP +0.00, DOC +0.00.
  • Misses: LNG (6.86), UBER (2.76), CQP (1.05), TUP (0.40), NBIX (0.29), PCRX (0.19), BCOR (0.18), NWN (0.13), JHG (0.11), EAT (0.11), BHG (0.10), THRM (0.06), AMRN (0.05), NI (0.03), LL (0.03), VCEL (0.03), YUM (0.02), OTLY (0.02), WING (0.02), AMRX (0.01).
  • Still to Report: EXPI , MFA, PNW.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ITW, NNN, LSCC, OMI, CRUS, REZI, PAYC, SMCI, ABNB, LTHM, FRSH, AMD, INSP, SCIAIZ, SPNE, HURN, REG, LFUS, GNRC, TT, ABC, CRL, LITE, BDC, WING, RACE of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SWKS, MRCY, INFN, HLF, MTCH, OSH, BNFT, SRC, VREX, BGFV, KAI, AKAM, BCOR, IDXX, EAT, JCI, EMR, CRTO of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 05/03/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: LTHM +21%, SMCI +11%, VVNT +10%, LDI +10%, PAYC +7%, SBUX +6%, STAG +6%, AMD +6%, REZI +6%, VREX +5%, ABNB +5%, MUSA +5%, OSH +5%, LFUS +5%, BXC +5%, WERN +4%, PUMP +4%, INSP +4%, DOOR +4%.
  • Gap Down: CNTB -30%, LYFT -27%, KZR -24%, INFN -22%, HLF -15%, AKAM -14%, WK -10%, BFAM -10%, RVLV -10%, MASI -8%, ANDE -8%, BGFV -7%, MTCH -6%, DIDI -5%, RNR -5%, FRSH -5%, MTW -5%, EXR -5%, IAG -4%, NWN -4%, GNW -4%, TRC -4%.

Insider Action: HCA, WBD sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. GE sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 05/03/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: UBER LYFT EAT GNRC SBUX   (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • White House remains divided on removing some Chinese tariffs. (WSJ)
  • Russia seeks to annex Occupied Ukraine as invasion goals shift. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia fired missile at power plants in Western Ukraine. (NYT)
  • Down to only 100 negative yielding bonds. (Bloomberg)
  • Vice President Kamala Harris to be with union organizers from Amazon (AMZN) and Starbucks (SBUX) today. (Reuters)
  • Chevron (CVX) union wants new talks post strike. (Reuters)
  • Moderna (MRNA) triples vaccine sales as blows out earnings. (CNBC)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at Lyft (LYFT) versus Uber (UBER).  Ad supported streaming services like Tubi are doing well while Netflix (NFLX) struggles.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score shows some small life by increasing to 6% from 0%.  Updated 05/03/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 10:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady welcome Team USA to the White House; The Vice President AND The Second Gentleman attend, 11:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on economic growth, jobs, and deficit reduction, 2:00 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing with Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The Vice President receive the Weekly Economic Briefing, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications Apr 29: 2.5% (prev -8.3%) – US MBA 30 Yr Mortgage Rate Apr 29: 5.36% (prev 5.37%)
  • ADP Employment Report 8:15 a.m. EDT
  • International Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • PMI Composite Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • March Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to improve from a drop of -4.1% to -1.5%.
  • ISM Services Index 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • ERIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • FOMC is out with its latest decision at 2:00 p.m. EDT and then followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity:

  • Bright Horizons (BFAM) agrees to acquire Only About Children for approx. US$320 million.
  • Mandiant (MNDT) to be acquired by Google (GOOG).
  • U.S. Energy Corp. (USEG) Announces Bolt-on Acquisition of Assets.
  • Universal Technical Institute (UTI) acquires Concorde Career Colleges.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Credit Suisse 4th Annual eXtreme Services Conference 2022 (05/04/22-05/05/22)
    • D.A. Davidson 24th Annual Financial Institutions Conference 2022 (05/04/22-05/06/22)
    • Goldman Sachs Virtual Copper Day 2022
    • Piper Sandler Boston Biotech Bus Tour 2022 (05/04/22-05/05/22)
    • Wells Fargo Industrials Conference 2022 (05/04/22-05/05/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Alliance Global Partners A.G.P. Spring Consumer Cannabis Conference 2022
        • BMO Global Reserve & Asset Managers Conference
        • Credit Suisse Mexico Investment Ideas ConferenceGoldman Sachs 15th
        • European Small and Mid Cap Symposium 2022 (05/03/22-05/06/22)
        • Oppenheimer 17th Annual Industrial Growth Conference 2022 (05/03/22-05/04/22)
  • Company Meetings: CME, CSX, GD, GE, GILD, MGM, MOH, OVV, PEP, PHM, PM, SPGI, SYK.
  • Fireside Chat: ASPN w/ Water Tower Research.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ACRX, BB, BCAB, DELL, EQX, ETNB, GIS, NRC, NRC, TMUS, URG.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Dell Technologies (DELL) World 2022 (05/02/22-05/05/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • International Society for Cell and Gene Therapy (ISCT) Annual Meeting 2022 (05/04/22-05/07/22)
    • EXPLORE 22  (05/04/22-05/05/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • Planet Microcap Showcase 2022 (05/03/22-05/05/22)
        • SMi 22nd Annual Pain Therapeutics Conference 2022 (05/03/22-05/05/22)
        • Blue Cross Blue Shield BCBS National Summit 2022 (05/02/22-05/05/22)
        • Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) 2022 (05/02/22-05/05/22)
        • Geological Society of Nevada- GSN Symposium 2022 Vision for Discovery (05/02/22-05/05/22)
        • ISPA Conference
        • The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology ARVO 2022 (05/01/22-05/04/22)
        • Milken Institute Global Conference 2022 (05/01/22-05/04/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: