CAPIS Morning Note – 04/28/23: Stocks Look To Finish Out Week With Some Selling As Amazon Earnings Raise Questions

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4135.35 higher by 1.96% from Wednesday at 4055.99 lower by -0.38%. The overnight high of 4155.50 was hit at 1:40 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4131.50 at 5:15 p.m. EDT, a range of ~24 points high to low which is below the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4135.35 higher by 1.96% from Wednesday at 4055.99 lower by -0.38%. The overnight high of 4155.50 was hit at 1:40 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4131.50 at 5:15 p.m. EDT, a range of ~24 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45. At 7:05 a.m. EDT, the current price was 4138.50 which is -0.37% and -15.50 points. The overnight session again saw the selling start at 2:00 a.m. EDT and hit a low at 5:15 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: ACA +0.52, CC +0.47, MHK +0.45, EMN +0.40, SKX +0.33, ALSN +0.32, BZH +0.31, X +0.24, KNSL +0.22, SLCA +0.18, EHC +0.17, CINF +0.17, AJG +0.15, AX +0.14, GFL +0.13, AMGN +0.13, SM +0.12, SNCY +0.11, RSG +0.11, TMUS +0.10, INTC +0.10, BJRI +0.10, MTX +0.10, WY +0.09, AMZN +0.09, AEM +0.09, RMD +0.09, MDLZ +0.08, AYX +0.07, PINS +0.06, HUBG +0.06, FHI +0.05, NET +0.05, SKYW +0.05, ATR +0.05, VRSN +0.04, ESS +0.04, SWN +0.04, DLR +0.03, DXCM +0.02, SKT +0.02, OFC +0.02, EIG +0.02, CUZ +0.02, GLPI +0.02, SNAP +0.02, OIS +0.02, IMAX +0.02, CWST +0.01, EXPO +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: KN +0.00, ELME +0.00, PEAK +0.00, CUBE +0.00, HIG +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: COF (1.62), FSLR (0.55), PFSI (0.52), SAM (0.42), ABCB (0.34), FICO (0.26), PTCT (0.25), ACCD (0.20), GILD (0.17), CPT (0.16), OLN (0.14), COLM (0.13), COUR (0.11), LPLA (0.09), PFS (0.05), CSL (0.03), SSB (0.03), LTC (0.03), SSNC (0.03), LHX (0.01), FE (0.01), PFG (0.01) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Interactive Strength, Inc. (TRNR): Pricing of $12 Million Initial Public Offering 1,500,000 shares @$8.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • CVM: prices $1.35 Million Confidentially Marketed Offering. 794K shares priced at $1.70 per share.
    • HILS: prices 5.3M share public offering at 50c per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • STZ: Prices Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CVM: Announces $1.35 Million Underwritten Confidentially Marketed Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • FOXO: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 10,062,500 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Public Warrants Up to 316,250 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Private Warrants Up to 1,905,853 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Assumed Warrants Up to 5,288,364 Shares of Class A Common Stock Up to 316,250 Private Warrants to Purchase Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • HILS: Proposed Public Offering.. ThinkEquity Bookmanager.
    • IDYA: Announces Closing of Public Offering Including Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • EGLE: (see Mixed Shelf)
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ACB: Filed Form F-10.. U.S.$650,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • EGLE: Files $750 mln mixed shelf securities offering; also files 3,781,561 shares common stock by selling shareholder.
    • TNET: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • GWW: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Debt Securities.
    • NAVB: Announces Intent to sell Cardinal Milestone Payment for $8 Million; Secures New $2.75 Million Equity Line of Credit.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • NBY: Announces $3.0 Million Convertible Note Financing.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up:MHK +9%, COUR +8%, IMAX +6%, INTC +5%, AX +5%, BY +5%, MTX +5%, BZH +4%, SLCA +4%  of note.
    • Trading Down: NET -24%, SNAP -18%, ACCD -14%, PINS -13%, AYX -11%, FSLR -7%, KN -4%, COF -4%, ELME -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: AMZN, INTC, SNAP, PINS, FSLR, SAM, TMUS, LHX, AMGN, FICO, GILD, MDLZ (CNBC)
    • Intel (INTC) reports largest quarterly loss in company history. (CNBC)
    • Amazon (AMZN) Surges Back From Postpandemic Doldrums. (WSJ)
    • Snap (SNAP) Falls After Posting Revenue Decline On Advertising Weakness. (Bloomberg)
    • Pinterest (PINS) delivers earnings beat, will partner with Amazon as it opens third-party ad demand. (MarketWatch)
    • Track How U.S. Banks Are Faring in First-Quarter Earnings. (WSJ)
    • White House: Monitoring situation at First Republic (FRC), could step in if needed. (Reuters)
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded $4.79 billion U.S. Army contract modification.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Credicorp LTD (BAP) appointed Mr. Luis Enrique Romero Belismelis as Chairman of the Board.
    • Callon Petroleum (CPE) names Matthew Bob as Chair of the Board of Directors.
    • DWAC – regains compliance.
    • Healthpeak (PEAK) announces new independent Board Chair.
    • Precipio (PRPO) Granted 180-day Extension From NASDAQ To Regain Compliance.
    • The Shyft Group (SHYF) announces planned retirement of COO Todd Heavin.
    • Tidewater’s (TDW) non-executive Chairman Larry Rigdon announces his retirement.
    • Trupanion (TRUP) Appoints Paulette Dodson and Betsy McLaughlin to Board of Directors.
    • Unique Fabricating, Inc. (UFAB) Receives NYSE American Low Selling Price Compliance Notice.
    • VivoPower International PLC (VVPR) Granted 180-Day Extension to Meet Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    •  XWELL, Inc. (XWEL) Granted 180-Day Extension by NASDAQ to Regain Compliance with Minimum Bid Price Rule.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Axos Financial (AX) authorizes $100 million for repurchases.
    • Coursera (COUR) Announces Share Repurchase Program $95 million.
    • Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM) renews share repurchase program
    • Matson (MATX) Announces Addition Of 3 Million Shares To Existing Share Repurchase Program. (See Dividends)
    • Parker-Hannifin (PH) increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.48 per share from $1.33 per share.
    • PROV extends stock repurchase plan.
    • Unity Bancorp (UNTY) Approves New Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Avery Dennison (AVY) increases quarterly dividend $0.06 to $0.81 per share.
    • Community Healthcare Trust (CHCT) raises annual dividend by $0.01 to $1.80 per share.
    • Employers Holdings (EIG) Quarterly dividend increased by 8% to $0.28.
    • Matson (MATX) Quarterly Dividend Of $0.31 Per Share.
    • NewMarket (NEU) increases quarterly dividend to $2.25 per share from $2.1 per share.
    • Summit Hotel (INN) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.02 to $0.06 per share.
    • Sysco (SYY) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.01 to $0.50 per share.
    • TransAlta (TAC) raises quarterly dividend to $0.055 per common share from $0.04 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -11, Dow Jones -103,  NASDAQ -32, and Russell 2000 -5. (as of 7:52 a.m. EDT).  Asia higher and Europe lower. VIX Futures are at 19.90 from 20.94 yesterday.  Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.48% unchanged from yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $29,311 from $29,092 yesterday, lower by -1.36%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: Utilities, Healthcare, Energy  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Basic Materials, Industrial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Stocks rallied Thursday, after a strong round of corporate earnings helped reverse a selloff earlier this week.  The S&P 500 rose 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 524 points, or 1.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 2.4%.  All three major indexes are on pace to close the week higher.  Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) led the way Thursday. The stock jumped 14% after the social network reported its first sales increase in nearly a year. That followed stronger-than-expected results earlier this week from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google Parent Alphabet (GOOGL). Amazon (AMZN) and was initially higher by 10% before falling -2.28%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: GTLS +0.90, LYB +0.76, CRI +0.41, XOM +0.23, DAN +0.17, SAIA +0.17, CVX +0.14, TRP +0.13, IMGN +0.09, BLMN +0.09, JKS +0.06, CCJ +0.05, WPC +0.04, CL +0.03, NYCB +0.02, POR +0.02, SXT +0.02, WT +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: AVTR +0.00, NVT +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: CHTR (0.91), LAZ (0.52), ARCB (0.38), AON (0.15), ARES (0.10), NWL (0.03), STEL (0.02), EAF (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: FHB , GNTX , IMO , MOG.A , TNC of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: GWW, TRS, SNCY, MDLZ, ALSN, COUR, ACA, ATR, NVT, MOG.A of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SO, AMGN, ACCD, INTCSSNC, HUBG, DLR, FICO, FE, ESS, CPT, SONY, CRI, BLMN, NWL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: FRC +10%, ALSN +7%, MHK +6%, GFL +5%, AX +5%, INTC +5%, SLCA +5%, OFC +5%, OIS +5%, COUR +5%, MTX +4%, BY +4%, BZH +4%, PARR +4%, APPF +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: NET -24%, SNAP -19%, ACCD -16%, AYX -14%, PINS -13%, FSLR -9%, NWG -6%, ABCB -5%, VRSN -5%, PFG -5%, CSL -4%, DXCM -4%, ELME -4%, AVTR -4% of note.

Insider Action: PCB, HBAN sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) 
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Amazon Jolts Investors With Talk of Cloud Growth Slowdown. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: A Tax Loophole Makes EV Leasing A No-Brainer in the U.S. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Drop on Tech Blowback: Treasuries Recover: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Eurozone economy ekes out 0.1% growth in first quarter, misses expectations as Germany stagnates. (CNBC)
  • First Republic (FRC) gains on reports of a rescue plan. (Bloomberg)
  • Exxon (XOM) posts record first quarter profit as oil output climbs. (Bloomberg)
  • Chevron (CVX) also tops estimates despite drop in oil prices. (CNBC)
  • 73% of Millennials are living paycheck to paycheck. (CNBC)
  • Wholesale egg prices may drop back to $1 for the first time since 2021. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score ramps up to 71% from 28%.  BOOM!

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing; The Vice President attends, 11:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President presents the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy to the Air Force Falcons, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart the White House en route to the Salamander D.C. Hotel, 4:50 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady participate in a reception for the Democratic National Committee; The Vice President and The Second Gentleman attend, 6:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 7:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Employment Cost Index 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • March Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 0.2% from 0.3%.
  • March PCE Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT as well and is expected to remain at 0.3%.
  • April Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 43.40 from 43.80.
  • April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 63.5 unchanged.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • Farm Prices 3:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • IDEX Corp (IEX) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Iridian Spectral Technologies for cash consideration of 150 mln Canadian dollars.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Deutsche Bank AG Q1 2023 Conference Call for Fixed Income investors
    • Burkenroad 26th Annual Investment Conference 2023
      •  Previously posted and ongoing conferences:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: