CAPIS Morning Note – 04/12/22: The Big Kahuna For Today That Will Drive Trading is March CPI At 8:30 A.M CDT

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4412.53 from 4488.28  on Friday down 1.69%. This is now the second day in April where the S&P 500 has lost more than -1%. Futures have been moving lower most of the night before turning up at 3:45 a.m. EDT. The overnight high was hit at 6:40…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4412.53 from 4488.28  on Friday down 1.69%. This is now the second day in April where the S&P 500 has lost more than -1%. Futures have been moving lower most of the night before turning up at 3:45 a.m. EDT. The overnight high was hit at 6:40 a.m. EDT at 4,414. The low was hit at 4,382 at 3:45 a.m. EDT, a range of 32 points high to low. At 7:05 a.m. EDT the current price is 4407 down -1.75 which is -0.04%.

Trading Note: Stock and bond trading the next two days will be driven by CPI today and PPI tomorrow. Most expect the worst monthly number in many years at 1.2% for each data point. Is this a case of sell the rumor and buy the news? Time will tell.

Breaking News: Russian President Putin this morning warns that Russia cannot become isolated. Maybe they should quit invading countries? (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • HOTH 7M shares offering priced at $0.85/share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • HOTH: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. Benchmark bookmanager.
    • LFLY: Filed Form S-1..10,451,087 shares of common stock underlying warrants, 16,542,564 shares of common stock, 2,495,997 shares of common stock stock underlying convertible notes, 3,950,311 private warrants.
    • VCNX: Filed Form S-3.. 3,252,251 Shares of Common Stock.
    • WULF: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. Cantor Bookmanager — Certain of TeraWulf’s existing investors, including the Company’s CEO Paul Prager, have agreed to purchase $5,000,000 of shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price of $7.88 per share.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AEI: Filed Form S-3.. $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • SURG: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: See LFLY above in common stock.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: AGLE +33% (see news since the close below).
    • Trading Down: WULF -8% (see capital raises above).
  • News Since The Close:
    • Twitter (TWTR) Grapples With an Elon Musk (TSLA) Problem. (NYT)
    • President Biden to allow sale of higher-ethanol gas in bid to ease costs.
    • U.S. orders non-emergency government employees and family members to leave Shanghai due to COVID surge and restrictions.
    • After 160,000 Covid cases, Shanghai still claims “no deaths” in current wave.
    • Aeglea BioTherapeutics (AGLE) Submits Data to FDA for ARG1-D Treatment (DJ Newswire)
    • Assets Under Management:
      • BEN $1,477.5 billion vs. $1,486.9 billion at Feb 28th.
      • AMK $90.8 billion, up 15.1% y/y.
      • IVZ $1,555.9 Billion, up 1.6% m/m.
      • AB $735 billion, 0.7% decrease.
      • APAM – $159.6 billion.
      • CNS $102.1 billion, up $3.2 billion m/m.
    • Russian/Ukraine News:
      • Secretary of State Blinken calls on all nations to condemn Russia’s Ukraine war.
      • Russia’s Energy Ministry suspends publishing oil output and export data. (Ifx)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Announces Retirement of Teresa L. White, President, Aflac U.S.
    • Alfi (ALF) Announces Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Annual Report.
    • CME Group (CME) Announces New Regional Leadership Structure to Strengthen Focus on International Business Growth and Facilitate Enhanced Service to Clients Outside the United States.
    • Electric Last Mile Solutions (ELMS) receives notice from Nasdaq for late filing.
    • Comstock (LODE) Announces LiNiCo’s New President.
    • Partner Comms (PTNR) CEO Avi Zvi has notified the Board of Directors of his resignation from the Company.
    • Redwire (RDW) in Compliance With Both NYSE and SEC Reporting Requirements.
    • Sonoco Products (SON) names Rodger Fuller COO, effective immediately.
    • VEON confirms notification from Nasdaq on minimum share price requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements: None of note.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • European Wax Center (EWCZ) declares special dividend of $3.30 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +4, Dow Jones +20, NASDAQ +32,  and Russell 2000 +5.  Europe lower and Asian mixed.  VIX Futures are at 25.90 from 24.95 Monday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.79% from 2.757%. Bitcoin is at $40,305 from $41.446  on Monday morning higher by 0.71% this morning. As of 8:07 a.m. EDT.

Monday’s Action – 04/11/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical, Utilities, Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Utilities, and  Basic Materials of note.

Stocks down sharply across the board.  NASDAQ down 2.18% followed by the SPX pulling back 1.69%.  May 50 basis point hike seen as “highly likely”.  Updated 04/11/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: None of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: JPM, BLK, FAST, FRC, DAL, SJR, BBBY of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ACI +0.10.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: KMX (0.32).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ASX, INMD, AAL of note.
  • Negative Guidance: UCTT of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 04/11/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: AGLE +32%, SPNE +5%, GDYN +5%.
  • Gap Down: MYOV -9%, WULF -9%, ENSG -6%.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  PRTY, GRPN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 04/11/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: HPE PCG KMX (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Tuesday (CNBC)
  • Ukraine along with Britain and Australia is trying to prove chemical weapons were used in Mariupol. (NYT)
  • Etsy (ETSY) Sellers are boycotting the website to protest an increase in fees. (WSJ)
  • Big sellers of Deutsche Bank (DB)  and Commerzbank (CRZBY) unloaded $1.75 billion of shares sending DB lower by -6.40%  and CRZBY by -3.40% at 7:45 a.m. EDT. (Bloomberg)
  • Apple (AAPL) iPhone producer Pegatron suspends Shanghai production amid lockdowns. (Bloomberg)
  • Ford (F) considering moving production in EVs to India. (Digitimes)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at the now complete merger between WarnerMedia and Discovery (WBD). General Motors (GM) self driving unit has first viral moment.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score drops down to the bottom at 0%.  Updated 04/11/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, 11:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Des Moines, Iowa (1:05 p.m. CDT Local), 2:05 p.m. EDT
    • The President visits POET Bioprocessing – Menlo (2:15 p.m. CDT Local), 3:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President makes an announcement on his Administration’s actions to lower costs for working families, reduce the impact of Putin’s Price Hike, and Build a Better America with Bipartisan Infrastructure Law investments in rural communities (2:45 p.m. CDT Local), 3:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Des Moines, Iowa en route Joint Base Andrews (5:10 p.m. CDT Local), 6:10 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at Joint Base Andrews, 8:10 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 8:40 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • NFIB Small Business Index 6:00 a.m. EDT
  • CPI 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to grow to 58.5% from 56.5%.
  • March Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 107.50 from 110.50.
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Research Board of Governors Lael Brainard 12:10 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 6:45 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • FCPT (FCPT) Announces Acquisition of a Mavis Tire Property for $2.8 Million.
  • Littelfuse (LFUS) Acquires Embed.
  • SPX (SPXC) Announces Acquisition of International Tower Lighting, LLC.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America 12th Annual Global Automotive Summit 2022 (04/12/22-04/13/22)
    • Cantor US Cannabis Conference 2022 (04/12/22-04/14/22)
    • Cowen Inaugural Virtual Bitcoin Mining Summit 2022 (04/12/22-04/13/22)
    • Jefferies Space Summit 2022
    • Wells Fargo Biotech Forum 2022 (04/12/22-04/13/22)
    • Wells Fargo Houston Midstream Management Meetings 2022
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Needham and Company 21st Annual Healthcare Conference 2022 (04/11/22-04/14/22
  • Company Meetings: BK, FITB, LEN.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALPN, APSG, EPD, ERAS, ERF, GDYN, RBCN, RGP, TTOO.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Gold Forum Europe – Virtual 2022 (04/12/22-04/14/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • China Cell Biology Annual Conference 2022 (04/11/22-04/15/22)
        • American Organization of Nursing Leadership (AONL) 2022 Conference (04/11/22-04/14/22)
        • American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting (AACR) 2022 (04/08/22-04/13/22)
        • IFCC-EFLM European Congress of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicines (EuroMedLab) 2022 (04/10/22-04/14/22)
        • Society for Inherited Metabolic Disorders 43rd Annual Meeting 2022 (04/10/22-04/13/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: