CAPIS Morning Note – 03/27/23: Stocks Higher As Hope For Banks Rises On First Citizens Purchase of Silicon Valley Bank.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.56% at 3970.99 from Thursday higher by 0.30% at 3948.72. The overnight high of 4030 was hit at 7:08 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3997.50 at 3:50 a.m. EDT, a range of ~33 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.56% at 3970.99 from Thursday higher by 0.30% at 3948.72. The overnight high of 4030 was hit at 7:08 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3997.50 at 3:50 a.m. EDT, a range of ~33 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 (mini) was higher by 30 points which is +0.70%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

    

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ASLN: Filed Form F-3.. 388,905,110 Ordinary Shares Represented by up to 15,556,204 American Depositary Shares.
    • BATL: Filed Form RW.
    • KRTX: Closing of Public Offering and Full Exercise of Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • SSU: Filed Form F-3..340,106,435 Ordinary Shares And 5,933,333 Public Warrants And 950,000 Restricted Stock Units.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • EGLE: Files for 3,781,561 share common stock offering by selling shareholder. (see Mixed Shelf too)
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • RBBN: Announces $55 Million Preferred Stock Private Placement Financing and Amendment to Credit Facility.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CKPT: Filed Form S-3.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • EGLE: Files for $750 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • HAFC: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • ICPT: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • LIVE: Filed Form S-3.. $50 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • OTIS: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • VRSK: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • DBD: Announces Extension of Exchange Offer with respect to its Outstanding 8.50% Senior Notes due 2024.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • RAIL: Plans To Issue Non-Convertible Preferred Stock To Reduce Debt & Provide Growth Capital.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: GME 44.0%, NYCB 36.9%, LOVE 18.5%, GDS 18.1%, SCS 17.2%, CVGW 17.1%, GBX 16.2%, PACB 15.4%, RRGB 15.3%, KBH 14.3%, UPWK 14.3%, ABEO 13.8%, HLIT 13.6%, TMST 13.5%, KALU 13.5%.
    • Trading Down: FRC -46.6%, TRUP -30.5%, RAD -22.6%, ATNX -19.9%, PDD -19.8%, EVLO -19.2%, SQ -18.1%, HRTX -18.1%, MPAA -17.7%, SGMO -17.2%, MOV -16.3%, ALLK -16.0%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • BridgeBio (BBIO) Attracts Takeover Interest From Pharma Firms. (Bloomberg)
    • Rivian (RIVN) Moves More Engineers Near Illinois EV Factory to Speed Up Output. (WSJ)
    • AMZN Starts Latest Round Of 9,000 Layoffs. (The Information)
    • AI and BAESY are one of several vendors awarded a $900 million Air Force IDIQ contract for Data Software Services.
    • Deposits at small US banks fell by 1.9% or $107.9 Billion this past week to $5.47 Trillion.
    • Deposits at U.S. commercial banks fell $98 billion between March 8 and March 15 (down 3.3% from a year earlier), but they rose $67 billion at the 25 largest banks. (Nick T. Tweet WSJ)
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded a $474.2 million US Navy modification to exercise options under a previously- awarded contract for Trident II missile production.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week:  DB, AMZN, GME, SBUX, NKE, MRNA, GIS (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: TikTok in the Hot Seat (NYT)
    • House Speaker Kevin Mccarthy (R-CA) says that House will move forward with legislation to address TikTOk following last week’s hearing.
    • The most hated stocks are crushing Wall Street in 2023 — so far. (MarketWatch)
    • AAPL CEO on China: “We could not be more excited. Apple and China . . . grew together, and so this has been a symbiotic kind of relationship… Innovation is developing rapidly in China, and I believe it will further accelerate”
    • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari: Economic Conditions Suggest U.S. is Moving Closer to Recession, Severity of Credit Crunch Remains Unclear.
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: F, PANW, CHKP, CYBR, TENB, ZS, CRWD of note.
      • Cautious View: SCHW, UBS of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Aurora (ACB) Provides Update on Nasdaq Listing.
    • Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) Announces CEO Succession.
    • Cutera (CUTR) Receives Notification of Deficiency from Nasdaq Related to Delayed Annual Report on Form 10-K.
    • Coffee Holding Co., Inc. (JVA) Receives Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Annual Report.
    • Dogness (DOGZ) Receives NASDAQ Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Requirements.
    • Ecopetrol (EC) appoints Alberto Consuegra Granger as interim CEO.
    • Glory Star New Media Group Holdings Limited (GSMG) Receives Nasdaq Notice of Deficiency Regarding Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Hertz (HTZ) Announces Departure of Chief Financial Officer.
    • Republic First Bancorp, Inc. (FRBK) Receives Compliance Notice and New Notice of Non-Compliance from Nasdaq.
    • Hepsiburada (HEPS) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Locafy (LCFY) Receives Non-Compliance Notice Regarding Nasdaq Minimum Stockholder’s Equity Requirement.
    • Phoenix New Media (FENG) Announces Change of Chief Executive Officer.
    • Sono Group (SEV) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Spire Global (SPIR) Receives Continued Listing Standards Notice from the NYSE.
    • The Eastern Company (EML) COO James Woidke resigns.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Royalty Pharma (RPRX) Announces $1.0 Billion Share Repurchase Program..
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • COP Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.60.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +24, Dow Jones +192,  NASDAQ +45, and Russell 2000 +18. (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia higher ex South Korea (KOSPI) and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 22.88 from 25.65 Friday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.468% from 3.287% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $27,975 from $28,026 Friday, higher by +0.46%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Basic Materials, Industrial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

A volatile week on Wall Street ended with major stock indexes higher despite lingering fears about the health of the banking system.  Bond yields fell as investors piled into Treasurys, gold traded near record highs and on Friday investors loaded up on safe-haven stocks in sectors such as utilities, healthcare and consumer staples.   The S&P 500 gained 22.27 points, or 0.6%, to close at 3970.99 on Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 132.28 points, or 0.4%, to end at 32237.53.  The Nasdaq Composite increased 36.56 points, or 0.3%, to 11823.96. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Dow rose 1.2% and the Nasdaq index climbed 1.7%.  Shares of financial firms were mixed Friday with big U.S. institutions and European banks falling while several regional banks continued to recover from the recent selloff.   (WSJ – edited by QPI)

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Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BNTX +1.51 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: CCL of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: FCNCA +22%, BGRY +19%, IOVA +8%, BBIO +8%, NVS +7%, STKL +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: None of note.

Insider Action: SCWX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: First Citizen Buys Silicon Valley Bank After Run on Lender. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  First Citizen Nears Deal to Buy Silicon Valley Bank, Sources Say. (Bloomberg)
  • Russian President Putin to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. (FT)
  • North Korea fires ballistic missiles last night, hits South Korean markets. (Reuters)
  • Saudi National Bank Chairman resigns days after comments on Credit Suisse led to sell-off. (CNBC)
  • President Biden says FDIC Insurance above $250,000 could be tapped if additional banks fail. (Reuters)
  • US Futures Rise as Banks Rally; Treasuries Dip: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Banking Crisis raises concerns about hidden leverage in the system. (Bloomberg)
  • Over the weekend, Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari noted that bank strains bring risk of recession closer. (Bloomberg)
  • Deposit drain from smaller banks to larger banks like JP Morgan has slowed, sources say. (CNBC)
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) looks at more job cuts. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score notches up 9% to 60%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 9:30 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President hosts the SBA Women’s Business Summit, 2:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Philip N. Jefferson 5:00 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Berkshire Grey (BGRY) Enters into Definitive Merger Agreement with SoftBank Group for Go-Private Transaction.
  • Brookfield (BEP) and EIG Consortium Sign Binding Agreement to Acquire Origin Energy.
  • BKLB: Receiving $71 per share acquisition offer from Clearlake Capital.
  • Camping World (CWH) announces an agreement to acquire Carbon Emery RV.
  • First Citizens BancShares Inc. (FRC) agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank which was seized by regulators following a run on the lender (Bloomberg)
  • Winnebago Industries (WGO) to Acquire Premier Lithium-ion Battery Solutions Provider Lithionics Battery.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • HSBC West Coast Financials Conference (03/27/23-03/28/23)
    • Canaccord Genuity NewSpace Investor Summit 2023
    • SVB Securities Biotech Mountain Meeting
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Company Meetings: BAP, BQ, GRMM
  • Fireside Chat: GAIA.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ADDYY, JAGX
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: