CAPIS Morning Note – 02/14/23: All Eyes on CPI Data At 8:30 a.m. EST.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.14% at 4137.29 from Friday higher by 0.22% at 4090.46.  The overnight high of 4159.50 was hit at 6:05 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 4140.25 at 10:25 p.m. EST, a range of ~19 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.14% at 4137.29 from Friday higher by 0.22% at 4090.46.  The overnight high of 4159.50 was hit at 6:05 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 4140.25 at 10:25 p.m. EST, a range of ~19 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was higher by 8.50 points which is 0.20%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CAR +3.47, SEDG +1.27, ACGL +0.80, MEDP +0.25, ANET +0.20, OTTR +0.16, NTB +0.13, BLKB +0.08, VNO +0.05, MRC +0.04, CDNS +0.04, DENN +0.02, CLF +0.01, LSCC +0.01, PLTR +0.01  of note.
  • Flat: BRX of note.
  • Misses: IRBT (1.33), ANGI (0.10), IAC (0.09), INST (0.06), FE (0.03), AMKR (0.03), ES (0.02) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • LSDI: Closing of its $7.5 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Financial Strategies Acquisition Corp. (FXCO) Announces Merger with Austin Biosciences Corp, A Texas Biotechnology Platform Company.
    • GSR II Meteora Acquisition Corp. (GSRM) Announces Update on Proxy Statement for Proposed Business Combination with Bitcoin Depot.
    • Vast, a Market-Leading Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Company, to go Public Through Business Combination With Nabors Energy Transition Corp. (NETC); Combined Company Expected to be Listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
    • Drilling Tools International, a Leading Oilfield Services Company, to List on Nasdaq through Business Combination with ROC Energy Acquisition Corp (ROC).
    • Vahanna Tech Edge Acquisition I Corp (VHNA): Roadzen, Inc. plans to become a publicly traded company via merger with Vahanna Tech Edge Acquisition I Corp.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CISO: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Cantor bookmanager)
    • REVB: Closing of $15.6 Million Public Offering.
    • TIVC: Closing of Public Offering.
    • TTOO: Proposed Public Offering. (CraigHallum bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • STSS: Filed Form S-1.. 4,497,042 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • KMPR: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • CHTR: Closes $1.1 Billion Senior Unsecured Notes.
    • RCL: closing of offering of senior guaranteed notes to refinance debt.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: FUSN +29%, PLTR +18%, KULR +8%, SKYT +5%, CAR +5%, IAC +4%, MGNX +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: CISO -19%, AMKR -4%, SEDG -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CAR, PLTR, CDNS, ANET, AMKR, SEDG (CNBC)
    • Amazon (AMZN) chief vows to ‘go big’ on physical stores. (FT)
    • Walmart (WMT) to Close Three Tech Hubs, Tells Tech Staff to Return to Offices. (WSJ)
    • Shares of Palantir (PLTR) pop as reports its first profitable quarter. (MarketWatch)
    • iRobot (IRBT) announces workforce reduction of 7% of total positions.
    • Arista Networks’ (ANET) stock is up 3.5% on strong results and revenue guidance. (MarketWatch)
    • NBC Sports hopes to make an aggressive bid to bring back the NBA, sources say. (CNBC)
    • ICF International (ICFI) awarded a $29 million transportation contract by The New York State Department of Transportation.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Callon Petroleum (CPE) announces retirement of Richard Flury as Board Chair, Matthew Bob named Chair-elect.
    • Corebridge Financial (CRBG) Names Lisa Longino Chief Investment Officer.
    • EQT Announces CFO Transition Plan.
    • GOGO promotes Jessica Betjemann to EVP and CFO.
    • InterPrivate III Financial Partners Inc. (IPVF) to Transfer Listing To NYSE American.
    • Latch (LTCH) Announces Receipt of Expected Nasdaq Delisting Determination, Plans to Request Appeal by February 14.
    • Middlefield Banc Corp.’s (MBCN) Chief Financial Officer Donald L. Stacy Announces Retirement; Middlefield Banc Corp.’s Michael C. Ranttila Named as Successor.
    • QSR: Joshua Kobza Appointed CEO of Restaurant Brands International.
    • Rocky Brands, Inc. (RCKY) Names New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Titan Medical (TMDI) Announces Executive Leadership Updates and Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Regarding Audit Committee Requirements.
    • USANA Health Sciences (USNA) Announces CEO Transition Plan. (MarketWatch)
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Ault Alliance (AULT) Announces Update on Dividend of Shares of TurnOnGreen and Giga-tronics to Its Stockholders.
    • CVX Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.51.
    • Exelon (EXC) declared a 6.7% dividend increase to $0.36.
    • Equity Commonwealth (EQC) Declares Special Cash Distribution of $4.25 Per Common Share.
    • FirstEnergy (FE) announced a new dividend policy that raises the targeted dividend payout ratio to 60% to 70% of operating earnings, from the previous range of 55% to 65%.
    • Hercules Capital (HTGC) announces special dividend of $0.08 per share.
    • SS&C (SSNC) Announces Common Stock Dividend of $0.20 Per Share.
    • TC Energy (TRP) increases quarterly dividend $0.03 to $0.93 per share.
    • Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL) increases quarterly dividend $0.25 to $3.25 per share.
    • Warrior Met Coal (HCC) declares special cash dividend of $0.88 per share and increases quarterly cash dividend $0.03 to $0.39 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +15, Dow Jones +77,  NASDAQ +56, and Russell 2000 +4. (as of 7:56 a.m. EST).  Asia and Europe are higher. VIX Futures are at 21.85 from 22.42 Friday.  Gold higher, Silver lower with Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.692% from 3.738% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $21.830 from $21,669  yesterday, higher by  0.83%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive, Financials, Industrials, Communication Services, Healthcare of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services of note.

U.S. stocks rose Monday as investors await inflation data due today and Thursday that will help them assess where monetary policy is headed.  The S&P 500 gained 46.83 points, or 1.1%, to 4137.29, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 376.66 points, or 1.1%, to 34245.93. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 173.67 points, or 1.5%, to 11891.79.  The Labor Department is set today to release January’s consumer-price index reading, a closely watched measure of what consumers pay for goods and services. Stocks have gained this year, with the S&P 500 up 7.8%, as investors broadly expect inflation to continue moderating, though some are wary that inflation could settle above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: 

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: QSR +2.40, BTU +1.99, EMBC +0.44, WCC +0.32, LDOS +0.22, MAR +0.14, GFS +0.12, INMD +0.09, GEO +0.09, TRTN +0.06, ENTG +0.05, PKI +0.04, TRP +0.01  of note.
  • Flat: HWM, SAFE, EXC, KO, DAVA, ZTS of note.
  • Misses: MIR (0.01), TRU (0.04), HRI (0.12), LCII (0.24) of note.
  • Still to Report: CAE , ECL , FELE , IPGP of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: LSCC, SEDG, INST, ANET, CDNS, TRP, EMBC, KO, ZTS, MAR of note.
  • Negative Guidance: AMKR, PLTR, BRX, GEO, PKI, ENTG, LDOS, TRU, MIR, INMD, DAVA, HWM of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PLTR +18%, FUSN +17%, SKYT +12%, CGEM +7%, KULR +6%, EQC +5%, BLKB +5%, CDNS +5%, WCC +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: OM -11%, CISO -6%, ANGI -5%, SEDG -5%, INST -5% of note.

Insider Action: PNNT sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Stocks Climb Before Key Inflation Data. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: These are the $439,000 missiles the U.S. is using to shoot down mysterious UFOs. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden to name Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard as the Head of the Council of Economic Advisors. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank of America Survey does not expect the current rally to last. (Bloomberg)
  • Former South Carolina Governor and Cabinet Member Nikki Haley announces 2024 run for the President of the United States. (NYT)
  • Update on the current speculation around the shootdown of the Chinese Balloon and three unidentified objects. (NYT)
  • Coca Cola (KO) revenues rise on higher prices. (CNBC)
  • Marriott (MAR) beats on profits and revenues with upbeat guidance. (MarketWatch)
  • The inflation update at 8:30 a.m. EST has the potential to deliver some bad news. (CNBC)
  • Wells Fargo delivers a warning ahead of CPI release, “The Fed is not your friend”. (CNBC)
  • Comcast NBCUniversal (CMCSA) may make an aggressive bid for bringing the NBA back to the network. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score jumps to 91% from 60%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:30 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route the National Association of Counties, Washington, DC, 12:45 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers a keynote address during the National Association of Counties, 1:15 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 2:00 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:30 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • NFIB Small Business Index 6:00 a.m. EST
    • US NFIB Small Business Optimism Jan: 90.3 (est 91.0; prev 89.8)
  • January CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to rise to 0.5% from -0.1%.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 09:30 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Lorie Logan 11:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 11:30 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 2:05 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Core & Main (CNM) Signs Agreement to Acquire Landscape & Construction Supplies LLC.
  • Cytek® Biosciences (CTKB)  to Acquire Flow Cytometry and Imaging Business from DiaSorin.
  • Descartes (DSGX) acquires final-mile carrier solutions company GroundCloud for approx. $138 million in cash upfront.
  • United Comm Banks (UCBI) and First Miami Bancorp announce merger agreement for ~$115.9 million.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Insurance Conference (02/14/23-02/15/23)
    • Bank of America Securities Financial Services Conference (02/14/23-02/16/23)
    • BTG Pactual CEO Conference (02/14/23-02/16/23)
    • BTIG MedTech, Digital Health, Life Science and Diagnostic Tools Conf (02/14/23-02/16/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
  • Company Meetings: KLR, NX
  • Fireside Chat:
    • Citi Biotech C-Suite Fireside Chat Series 2022 (ZLAB)
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AMRN, APTV, ASC, ATHX, BYCY, HILS, ONDS, UBX
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • IT EXPO 2023 (02/14/23-02/17/23)
    • Intersolar North America (ISNA) & Energy Storage North America (ESNA) Conference 2023 (02/14/23-02/16/23)
    • Virtual Investor CleanTech and Precious Metals Investor Conference 2023 (02/14/23-02/16/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Egypt Petroleum Show (02/13/23-02/15/23)
        • EMEA Transform Solarwinds Partner Summit (02/13/23-02/17/23
        • New York Fashion Week Fall-Winter (02/10/23-02/15/23)
        • Chicago Auto Show 2023 (02/10/23-02/20/23)
        • 46th Annual Association for Research in Otolaryngology (ARO) MidWinter Meeting (02/11/23-02/15/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: