CAPIS Morning Note – 02/13/23: Stocks Up Slightly As Markets Prepare For Inflation Data On Tuesday and Thursday.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.22% at 4090.46 from Thursday lower by -0.88% at 4081.50.  The overnight high of 4107 was hit at 6:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4078 at 8:35 0.m. EST, a range of ~29 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.22% at 4090.46 from Thursday lower by -0.88% at 4081.50.  The overnight high of 4107 was hit at 6:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4078 at 8:35 0.m. EST, a range of ~29 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was higher by 4 points which is 0.10%.

Breaking News: Kansas City Chiefs Beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 on tough interference call with one minute left in game. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Carney Technology Acquisition Corp. II (CTAQ) Announces Intent to Liquidate.
    • Medicus Sciences Acquisition Corp. (MSAC) Announces Liquidation.
    • Pathfinder Acquisition Corp (PFDR): Movella (MVLA) announces trading of common stock on Nasdaq Global Market following its successful merger with Pathfinder.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AMV: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 6,451,613 Units.
    • APRN: Files At-the-Market Equity Offering Program – $70Million. (Canaccord Sales Agent)
    • BEAT: Filed Form S-1.. Shares of Common Stock – No Amount Provided.
    • FBIO: Filed Form S-3.. 647,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • GOEV: Filed Form S-3.. 34,230,870 Shares of Common Stock.
    • LBPH: Closing of Public Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares in Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • PBLA: Filed Form S-1.. 13,350,000 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Previously Issued Warrants.
    • STAF: Closing of $5 Million Public Offering.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • COGT: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • PEAK: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • PM: Filed Form S-3ASR — Debt Shelf.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: OMER 63.4%, CSII 34.0%, BLBD 33.2%, CTLT 26.0%, DHT 22.1%, EHTH 21.5%, NGL 20.8%, NEWR 17.5%, ARCB 16.0%, BP 15.9%, STNG 14.4%, EQNR 13.4%, FTNT 12.4%, MMS 12.1%, GLYC 11.8%, AYX 11.4%, NVT 10.9%.
    • Trading Down: CPRI -26.3%, GMED -24.9%, AZUL -24.7%, CVNA -24.4%, TWOU -23.0%, BV -22.5%, BBBY -22.3%, CGC -21.9%, FOSL -20.8%, CHGG -20.6%, SFIX -20.4%, NVTA -20.2%, GOL -20.0%, GRPN -19.3%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Ford (F) Plans to Build EV Battery Plant in Michigan With Chinese Partner. (Bloomberg)
    • Marriott (MAR) announces dividend, additional title for CEO. (MarketWatch)
    • Blue Apron (APRN) stock falls more than 20% on share offering, says proceeds could be used to help explore ‘potential business combination’. (MarketWatch)
    • Biden Administration moving toward blocking JetBlue (JBLU)-Spirit (SAVE) merger. (Politico)
    • Webus International files for IPO. (MarketWatch)
    • Markets ended the week on the SP 500 below that key 4100 level — closing at 4090.46.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week:  DIS, LYFT, ZM GOOGL, BBBY, MAT, PEP (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: Microsoft’s (MSFT) Big Bet on A.I. (NYT)
    • Object Shot Down Over Canada in Escalating Aerial Drama. (Bloomberg)
    • Another object was shot down over Lake Huron on Sunday. (WSJ)
    • The ChatGPT AI hype cycle is peaking, but even tech skeptics don’t expect a bust. (CNBC)
    • META has delayed finalizing multiple teams’ budgets while it prepares a fresh round of job cuts.
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: MSFT, GOOG, NVDA, ADBE, AMD, IBM, AI, SOUN, BBAI, BZFD, HTZ of note.
      • Cautious View: PARA of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Aptorum Group (APM) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price and Receives Nasdaq Notification of Minimum Market Value of Publicly Held Shares Deficiency.
    • Aimco (AIV) Announces the Resignation of Terry Considine from its Board of Directors.
    • BrainsWay (BWAY) Announces Appointment of Hadar Levy as CEO.
    • Bally’s (BALY) Appoints Robeson Reeves As CEO.
    • Cigna (CI) changed its corporate name to The Cigna Group.
    • Community Healthcare Trust (CHCT) Chairman/CEO/President takes leave of absence.
    • Healthpeak (PEAK) completes holding company reorganization, which restructured co as an Umbrella Partnership Real Estate Investment Trust, or UPREIT.
    • Marriott International (MAR) Appoints Current CEO Anthony Capuano as President and CEO.
    • PG&E (PCG) announces Sumeet Singh will assume role of COO.
    • Phio Pharmaceuticals (PHIO) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Listing Requirements.
    • REE Automotive Ltd. (REE) Announces Receipt of Notice of Deficiency from Nasdaq Resulting from Previously Announced Departure of Director.
    • WISeKey (WKEY) Announces Public Filing of Registration Statement Relating to Proposed Spin-off of its Semiconductor Business.
    • Zentalis Pharma (ZNTL) announces appointment of Iris Roth, PhD, as Chief Operating Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Check Point Software (CHKP) announces $2.0 billion expansion of share repurchase program.
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) Announces $400 Million Share Repurchase Plan.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) increases quarterly dividend $0.04 to $0.22 share.
    • Banc of California (BANC) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.10 per share from $0.06 per share .
    • First National Corporation (FXNC) Announces 7% Increase in Cash Dividend.
    • Hawaiian Electric (HE) raises quarterly dividend $0.01 to $0.36 per share.
    • Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) Increases the Quarterly Dividend on Its Common Stock by 7 Percent to $.52 Per Share
    • KBR increases quarterly cash dividend $0.015 to $0.135 per share.
    • Marriott International (MAR) Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend.
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC) increases quarterly dividend $0.03 to $0.43 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +12, Dow Jones +51,  NASDAQ +70, and Russell 2000 +4. (as of 8:04 a.m. EST).  Asia is lower. Europe is higher. VIX Futures are at 21.85 from 22.42 Friday.  Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.738% from 3.70%  Friday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $21,669 from $21,755 yesterday, lower by  -1.40%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Industrial, Healthcare of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services Basic Materials, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services of note.

U.S. stocks swung between small gains and losses Friday, capping a week in which this year’s investor optimism about the direction of the economy faced its first test.  The S&P 500 fell in early trading, then inched up before moving in a tight range for the rest of the day. It rose 8.96 points, or 0.2%, to 4090.46. But the index still turned in a 1.1% weekly decline, its worst weekly performance so far in 2023.  Markets seemed to be digesting the previous week’s news, which included the Federal Reserve’s 0.25-point increase and a surprisingly strong jobs report. With the fourth-quarter earnings season more than halfway through, fewer companies are topping Wall Street profit expectations than normal. Shares of ride-hailing company Lyft Inc. fell $5.91, or 36%, to $10.31 on Friday after it reported results. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: 

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: MNDY +0.70, CHKP +0.09, TDC +0.05, FIS +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: THS (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: MNDY, BALY, TDC of note.
  • Negative Guidance: THS, FIS of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: OCUL +17%, OPT +11%, SOPH +8%, OUST +8%, BBAI +7% of note.
  • Gap Down: GTHX -39% of note.

Insider Action: NEE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: US Shoots Down Fourth Object as China Flings New Accusation. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: China Ready to Down Object Flying Near Naval Base. (Bloomberg)
  • Russian Oil Shipments Slump Ahead of March Output Cut. (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures Tick Higher as Wall Street Tries to Rebound From A Rocky Week. (CNBC)
  • New Daily Covid Cases Fall to a Three Month Low, But Daily Deaths Remain at 400. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score settles in at 60% for the end of the week after pullback from 94% on Tuesday.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:00 p.m. EST

Economic: None of note.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • B2Gold Corp. (BTG) Announces Acquisition of Sabina Gold & Silver Corp.
  • Berkshire Grey Inc. (BGRY),  a leader in AI-enabled robotic solutions that automate supply chain processes, today confirmed that it has received a non-binding indication of interest from SoftBank Group Corp. to acquire all of the outstanding capital stock of the Company for $1.30 per share in cash.
  • Stifel Independent Advisors (SF) Adds More Than $2.53 Billion in 2022 in Total Client Assets With Recruitment of 11 Practices.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Credit Suisse 24th Annual Financials Services Forum 2023 (02/13/23-02/15/23)
    • SVB Securities Global Biopharma Conference 2023 (02/13/23-02/16/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note
  • Company Meetings: ECOR.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: FFIE, KO, OCUL, PPHP
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Egypt Petroleum Show (02/13/23-02/15/23)
    • EMEA Transform Solarwinds Partner Summit (02/13/23-02/17/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • New York Fashion Week Fall-Winter (02/10/23-02/15/23)
        • Chicago Auto Show 2023 (02/10/23-02/20/23)
        • 46th Annual Association for Research in Otolaryngology (ARO) MidWinter Meeting (02/11/23-02/15/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: