CAPIS Morning Note – 02/09/23: Stocks Led Higher This Morning On Strong Earnings From Disney and Pepsi

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -1.11% at 4117.86 from Tuesday higher by 1.29% at 4164.  The overnight high of 4170.25 was hit at 6:00 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 4126.50 at 4:15 p.m. EST, a range of ~44 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -1.11% at 4117.86 from Tuesday higher by 1.29% at 4164.  The overnight high of 4170.25 was hit at 6:00 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 4126.50 at 4:15 p.m. EST, a range of ~44 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was higher by +29.50 points which is 0.71%.

Sports News: The Brooklyn Nets sent Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns in a six-player and several draft picks. (NYT)

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: RE +3.12, ORLY +0.63, RDN +0.28, TWO +0.22, SONO +0.20, DIS +0.20, ACLS +0.20, MMS +0.18, RPD +0.17, SLF +0.15, XPO +0.14, AB +0.13, CDAY +0.11, FLT +0.11, ESE +0.10, AEIS +0.10, CXW +0.09, DCP +0.09, WTS +0.08, MOH +0.08, EQC +0.08, DHT +0.05, MGM +0.04, ENS +0.04, MPWR +0.04, NVST +0.03, FR +0.03, EFX +0.03, TTMI +0.03, SON +0.02, FORM +0.02, PYCR +0.02, FROG +0.02, AZTA +0.02, PI +0.02, AZEK +0.01, GBDC +0.01, PTEN +0.01, REXR +0.01, PDM +0.01, NLY +0.01, IFF +0.01, ASGN +0.01, FRT +0.01, QNST +0.01, ULCC +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: MC of note.
  • Misses: PPC (0.45), FWRD (0.29), APP (0.26), STE (0.17), EQH (0.15), LNC (0.13), AFRM (0.11), MAT (0.11), HI (0.10), APPS (0.08), WYNN (0.07), HOOD (0.07), GT (0.05), STC (0.04), AVB (0.02), PAA (0.02), ME (0.01), HPP (0.01) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.


Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Hesai (HSAI) 10 Million share IPO priced at $19.00.
    • Solar tech provider Nextracker (NXT) prices upsized $638 Million IPO at $24 per share.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • LanzaTech (LNZA) and AMCI Acquisition Corp. II (AMCI) Announce Closing of Business Combination, Establishing First Public Carbon Capture and Transformation Company.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • NSSC: Announces Pricing of Secondary Public Offering of 2,100,000 Shares of Common Stock by Selling Stockholders at $31.50 per share.
    • PRPL: Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Class A Common Stock offering of 13.4 million shares of common stock at $4.50 per share.
    • TIVC: Announces Pricingof Public Offering.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • AAL: Pricing of Senior Secured Notes.
    • RCL: Announces pricing of $700 million offering of senior guaranteed notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • APPH: proposed $40 million public offering of common stock. (Cowen bookmanager)
    • BOXD: Filed Form 424B3.. 14,000,000 Shares Common Stock.
    • LIFE: Public Offering of Common Stock.. RBC Bookmanager.
    • PRPL: Announces Public Offering of Class A Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • NSSC: Announces Secondary Public Offering of Shares of Common Stock.
    • RBT: Files for 44,884,579 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • MMM: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: APP +28%, SONO +15%, MNOV +12, ME +11%, QNST +10%, FORM +7%, CDAY +5%, DIS +5%, HOOD +5%, MGM +5% of note.
    • Trading Down: AFRM -19%, APPS -18%, PRPL -13%, MAT -12%, VWE -10%, TTMI -9%, APPH -9, STE -8%, FROG -5%, LNC -5%, EFX -5%, LNC -5, AZTA -5%, AVB -5%, GLPG -5, NSSC -5, IFF -5% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DIS, MAT, WYNN, AFRM, LNC, CDAY, MGM, HOOD (CNBC)
    • Francisco Partners Nears $1.7 Billion Deal for Software Provider Sumo Logic (SUMO). (WSJ)
    • Third Point (Dan Loeb) Has a Stake in Salesforce (CRM). (WSJ)
    • Post Holdings (POST) to Acquire Rachael Ray® Nutrish®, Nature’s Recipe® and Other Select Pet Food Brands from The J.M. Smucker Co. (MarketWatch)
    • Disney (DIS) stock soars as Iger plans 7,000 job cuts in return to earnings stage. (MarketWatch)
    • JPMorgan (JPM) Cuts Hundreds More Mortgage Workers Amid Housing Woes. (Bloomberg)
    • Affirm (AFRM) to reduce workforce by 19%, effective today.
    • US Treasury Secretary Yellen: interest rate increases are a ‘drag’ on the Federal Budget, but they are factored into budget projections.
    • JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon Says He Is Planning To Go To China, Says It’s Important To Maintain Relations.
    • Twitter Blue debuts longer Tweets with up to 4,000 characters.
    • Assets Under Management – Monthly Reporting: CNS $87.3b + 6.9b.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • ADXN regains compliance with Nasdaq.
    • Argo Blockchain Plc (ARBK) announced that Peter Wall is stepping down from his positions as CEO and interim Chairman.
    • Bite Acquisition Corp. (BITE) Announces Transfer to NYSE American.
    • CURO Announces Changes in Board Composition and Leadership.
    • CyberArk (CYBR): Current COO Matthew Cohen to replace Udi Mokady as CEO.
    • Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) Jeffrey Rutherford will be departing as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer.
    • Bright Minds Biosciences (DRUG) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Deficiency Letter Regarding Independent Director and Audit Committee Requirements.
    • Disney (DIS) Announces New Structure With Three Core Business Units.  Disney Units Will Be Entertainment; Parks; ESPN (spinoff?)
    • Laboratory Corp (LH) announced new company to be formed by planned spin-off of its Clinical Development business will be known as Fortrea.
    • Lincoln National (LNC) announces that Christopher Neczypor will be appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer.
    • Vintage Wine Estates (VWE) issues downside Q2 revenue guidance; announces that Pat Roney has elected to transition from Chief Executive Officer to Executive Chairman of the Board.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Interpublic (IPG) Announces New Share Repurchase Program of $350 million. (see Dividends)
    • MGM Resorts (MGM) Approves Additional $2 Billion for Share Buybacks. (see Dividends)
    • HOOD to Pursue Buying Most or All 55 Million Shares From Emergent.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • CZOO trading reverse split price.
    • Guardforce AI (GFAI) Announces 1-for-40 Reverse Stock Split as Part of Nasdaq Compliance Plan.
    • Soligenix (SNGX) Announces Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • AvalonBay (AVB) Board of Directors declared a dividend for the first quarter of 2023 of $1.65 per share on the Company’s common stock (par value of $0.01 per share). The declared dividend is a 3.8% increase over the Company’s prior quarterly dividend.
    • Century Communities (CCS) Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend.
    • First Industrial Realty (FR) increased dividend to $0.32 from $0.295 per share.
    • Walt Disney (DIS): Intends to ask Board to reinstate dividend by end of calendar year; initial dividend will be modest, but hope is to increase it over time.
    • Interpublic (IPG) Increases Common Stock Dividend for Eleventh Consecutive Year. Increases common stock dividend 6.9% to $0.31 per share.
    • ITT announced today an increase in its quarterly dividend of 10% to $0.29 per share.
    • Masco (MAS) Board declares a quarterly dividend of $0.285 per share, a 2 percent increase.
    • MGM Resorts (MGM) to Suspend Ongoing Regular Dividends.
    • ON24, Inc. (ONTF) announces new $100 million capital return program, resulting in a total of $141 million of capital to be returned to shareholders since fourth quarter 2021.
    • Patterson-UTI (PTEN) declared a quarterly dividend on its common stock of $0.08 per share.
    • PennantPark Investment Corporation (PNNT) Announces 12.1% Increase of Its Quarterly Distribution to $0.185 per Share.
    • PEP Boosts Annual Dividend By 10% To $5.06 per Share.
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) increases quarterly dividend to $1.05 per share, up $0.08.
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) increases quarterly dividend to $0.38 per share, up $0.01.
    • Tempur Sealy Int’l (TPX) increases quarterly dividend to $0.11, up $0.01.
    • Thomson Reuters (THR) announced that its Board of Directors approved a 10% or $0.18 per share annualized increase in the dividend to $1.96 per common share.
    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.03 per share, up $0.11.
    • Trane (TT) increases quarterly dividend to $0.75 per share, up $0.08.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +28, Dow Jones +204,  NASDAQ +132, and Russell 2000 +14. (as of 8:06 a.m. EST).  Asia is lower. Europe is higher. VIX Futures are at 20.80 from 20.52 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.59% from 3.645% from yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $22,680 from $23,174 yesterday, lower by  -0.80%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Communication Services, Technology of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Energy, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, and Technology of note.

U.S. stocks fell Wednesday, reversing the prior session’s rally, as investors focused on what recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mean for the trajectory of interest rates.  The S&P 500 retreated 46.14 points, or 1.1%, to 4117.86, a day after the benchmark index jumped 1.3% in a volatile session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 207.68 points, or 0.6%, to 33949.01 while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 203.27 points, or 1.7%, to 11910.52. On Tuesday, all three indexes closed higher. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: 

  • Friday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: MSGE +1.14, THC +0.73, NSIT +0.41, HLT +0.37, WEX +0.22, LITE +0.20, MT +0.18, BWA +0.18, TTGT +0.17, ARES +0.13, K +0.12, PM +0.11, TPR +0.09, SSTK +0.09, WTW +0.08, TRI +0.07, SPGI +0.06, ITT +0.05, AZN +0.05, DUK +0.04, CYBR +0.04, CCJ +0.04, TIXT +0.03, ABBV +0.02, PEP +0.02, FAF +0.02, BRKR +0.02, GTES +0.02, TPX +0.02, IPG +0.01, SEE +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: HIMX of note.
  • Misses: PDS (3.41), CGC (0.31), HII (0.21), TU (0.06), BAX (0.06), WMG (0.05), MAS (0.03), CIGI (0.02), ESMT (0.02), SWI (0.02), APO (0.01), KIM (0.01), of note.
  • Still to Report: DBD, NSP, MDU, NNN, PATK, RL of note.



Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: CSII +47%, APP +29%, SONO +15%, QNST +10%, PYCR +9%, FORM +8%, ME +8%, DHT +6%, DIS +6%, AZN +6%, MGM +6%, FLNC +6%, WYNN +5%, HOOD +5%, ACLS +4%, MESO +4%, AZEK +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: VWE -38%, APPS -19%, PRPL -16%, AFRM -16%, RPD -11%, APPH -10%, GLPG -9%, MAT -9%, STE -9%, TTMI -9%, CS -8%, FROG -8%, NSSC -6%, HI -5%, EQH -5%, IFF -5%, AZTA -4%, BTI -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest premarket moves: MGM, WYNN, HOOD, TPR, TSLA, PEP, CS (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Futures Rise With Stocks as Earnings in Focus (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Credit Suisse Trading Collapses As Global Ambitions Fade. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Rep George Santos (R- NY) Gets Into Fight With Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) at the State of the Union Address. (Bloomberg)
  • Pepsi (PEP) beats revenues and earnings, increases its dividend as well. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • We are at that yo-yo point with the moving average score….bouncing back and forth quickly.  Score pulls back to 74% from 94%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, 9:40 a.m. EST
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Tampa, Florida, 10:00 a.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Tampa, Florida, 12:15 p.m. EST
    • The President discusses his plan to protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare and lower healthcare costs, 1:30 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Tampa, Florida en route Joint Base Andrews, 4:10 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route the White House, 6:20 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 6:30 p.m. EST


  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short interest data for the period of January 13th through January 31st are out after the close. During this period the S&P 500 rose by 1.94%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury SpeakersNone of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Globus Medical (GMED) and NuVasive (NUVA) to combine in an all-stock deal.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: