CAPIS Morning Note – 02/01/23: All Eyes On The FOMC Announcement at 2:00 p.m. EST and Press Conference At 2:30 p.m. EST, Stocks Modestly Lower

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 1.46% at 4076.60 from Monday lower by -1.17% at 4017.77.  The overnight high of 4090.75 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4071 at 5:45 a.m. EST, a range of ~19 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 1.46% at 4076.60 from Monday lower by -1.17% at 4017.77.  The overnight high of 4090.75 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4071 at 5:45 a.m. EST, a range of ~19 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -13.25 points which is -0.32%.

Erlanger Research Video Of Note: Market Action Post FOMC in 2022.  This was recorded Tuesday afternoon. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements tend to move markets and earlier this year we created a table to track the action. Of late, the action post FOMC has been negative. Is a change forthcoming or more of the same? Click here to watch.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CACC +1.68, RNR +1.00, EA +0.23, SMCI +0.23, HA +0.21, SYK +0.16, DOX +0.11, OI +0.06, CP +0.06, IEX +0.04, APAM +0.03, ASH +0.03, EW +0.03, MDLZ +0.03, SNAP +0.02, VREX +0.02, AMD +0.02, BXP +0.02, HLI +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: AMGN, JNPR of note.
  • Misses: MTCH (0.33), WDC (0.29), CB (0.20), MRCY (0.06), UNM (0.04), NATI (0.01) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Ascendant Digital Acquisition Corp. III (ACDI) Announces Redemption of Shares.
    • Mason Industrial Technology, Inc. (MIT) Will Redeem Its Public Shares and Will Not Consummate an Initial Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • ITGR: Announces Upsize and Pricing of Convertible Notes Offering.
    • MMLP: Announces Pricing of Offering of $400 Million Senior Secured Second Lien Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BOXD: Filed Form S-3.. 14,000,000 Shares Common Stock.
    • SINT: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 1,668,520 Units, Each Unit Consisting of One Share of Common Stock or One Pre-Funded Warrant, One Class C Warrant to Purchase One Share of Common Stock, and One-Half of One Class D Warrant, Each Whole Class D Warrant to Purchase One Share of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering:
    • WGS: Announces Closing of Underwritten Public Offering and Concurrent Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • FANG: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Up to 4,329,798 Shares Diamondback Energy, Inc. Common Stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • PIXY: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • SKE: Files for $200 million mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • WDC: Announces $900 Million Convertible Preferred Equity Investment Led by Apollo-Managed Funds.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: OI +8%, MRCY +6%, RIG +5%, SYK +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: SNAP -14%, EA -11%, TSHA -11%, MTCH -8%, PSTX -8%, HA -7%, WDC -6%, SMCI -4%, JNPR -4%, GRND -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: SNAP, EA, AMD, WDC, MTCH (CNBC)
    • AMD CEO promises to keep taking data-center from Intel even as cloud demand pauses following ‘strong’ 2022. (MarketWatch)
    • Visa’s (V) Deals With PayPal  (PYPL) Draw More Justice Department Scrutiny. (BloombergLaw)
    • Snap (SNAP) shares plunge on weak revenue as digital ad struggles continue. (CNBC)
    • Paypal (PYPL) Shares Up  After Report Of Plans To Layoff 7% Of Employees. (CNBC)
    • Electronic Arts (EA) expects layoffs, stock plunges more than 10% as mobile versions of popular games shelved and ‘Star Wars’ title delayed. (MarketWatch)
    • Western Digital (WDC) stock drops as outlook disappoints. (MarketWatch)
    • U.S. Readying $2.2 billion Weapons Package For Ukraine That Includes Longer-Range Rockets For The First Time, According To Two U.S. Officials.
    • Nordstrom (JWN): Revised JWN outlook to “Negative”.  Credit Rating Company citing weaker-than-expected performance.
    • BAE Systems (BAESY) awarded $652 million U.S. Air Force contract modification.
    • General Dynamics (GD) awarded $482 million U.S. Army hybrid contract.
    • Transocean Ltd. (RIG) Announces $392 Million Contract Award for Ultra-Deepwater Drillship.
    • Civeo (CVEO) announces contract award in Australia with expected revenues of approx A$337 million.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Bsquare (BSQR) Announces New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Dynavax (DVAX) Announces Uplisting to the Nasdaq Global Select Market.
    • FFBW: Announces Voluntary Nasdaq Delisting And Sec Deregistration.
    • iMedia (IMBI) Appoints Alan Aldworth to its Board of Directors.
    • LumiraDx (LMDX) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Letter Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Mercury Systems (MRCY) Announces CFO Transition.
    • Noble Corporation plc (NE) announces changes to its share capital
    • Old Dominion (ODFL) announces Chief Executive Officer transition.
    • Poseida Therapeutics (PSTX) announces that Eric Ostertag has resigned as Executive Chairman.
    • Rallybio (RLYB) Announces Appointment of Jonathan I. Lieber as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Stoneridge (SRI) appoints Jim Zizelman as CEO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Ashland (ASH) to repurchase up to $100 million of its $500 million share repurchase authorization beginning in February.
    • Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) Announces Amended Stock Repurchase Program and 10b5-1 Trading Plan.  Added $37.5 million to the $17.5 million currently remaining.
    • MO: Announces New $1 Billion Share Repurchase Program.
      Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program of up to DKK 28 billion.
    • Society Pass (SOPA) Engages ThinkEquity to Facilitate Stock Repurchase Program of Up to US$2 Million.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • REVB trading r/s price .
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt (APAM) declared a special dividend of $0.35 per share.
    • Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) Declares Irregular Cash Dividend of $1.00 per share.
    • Landmark Bancorp, Inc. (LARK) Declares Cash Dividend of $0.21 per share.
    • Old Dominion (ODFL) increases quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share, a 33% increase.
    • Postal Realty (PSTL) increases quarterly dividend to $0.2375 per share, a $0.0025 bump.
    • Valero Energy (VLO) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.04 to $1.02 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -8, Dow Jones -115,  NASDAQ -4, and Russell 2000 -4. (as of 8:00 a.m. EST).  Asian and European markets are trading higher. VIX Futures are at 19.61 from 20.40 from 19.95 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.485% from 3.522% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $23,092 from $22,887 yesterday, lower by  -0.06%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Industrials, Basic Materials, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, and Technology of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Real Estate, and Financial  of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Energy, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, and Technology of note.

U.S. stock indexes rose Tuesday to finish January with strong monthly gains, a reprieve for investors after a bruising 2022.  Increasing confidence that interest rates are nearing their ultimate level has boosted stocks, particularly growth segments of the market. Speculative, heavily shorted stocks have led this year’s rally.  Investors are eager to parse the Federal Reserve’s statements at Wednesday’s meeting for hints at the future path of policy—the Fed is broadly expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Tuesday’s data showing that wage gains are cooling buoyed hopes that waning inflation could prompt officials to pause rate increases in the months ahead.   The Nasdaq Composite jumped 190.74 points, or 1.7%, to 11584.55. The tech-focused index gained 11% in January, its best start to the year since January 2001, when it gained 12%.  The S&P 500 rose 58.83 points, or 1.5%, to 4076.60, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 368.95 points, or 1.1%, to 34086.04. The indexes added 6.2% and 2.8%, respectively, this month.  (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: 

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: EVR +0.96, ATKR +0.63, SR +0.48, SLAB +0.33, SMG +0.32, ODFL +0.25, EAT +0.24, TMO +0.20, HUM +0.16, TMUS +0.12, NVS +0.11, CMCO +0.11, ABC +0.08, GIB +0.06, FTV +0.04, DT +0.04, MO +0.02, EPD +0.02, TGI +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: JCI, OTIS of note.
  • Misses: PTON (0.34), WM (0.12), WRK (0.05), BSX (0.02) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: NATI, SYK, OI, GSK, TMO, ATKR, DT, EAT, SR, SLAB of note.
  • Negative Guidance: EA, VREX, WDC, MRCY, MTCH, SMCI, IEX, BXP, WM, JCI, FTV of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: MESO +15%, OI +7%, GRND +6%, LI +6%, ATKR +6%, SRI +5%, RLYB +5%, AMD +4%, XPEV +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: TSHA -22%, SNAP -15%, EA -11%, MTCH -9%, PSTX -8%, HA -8%, AUY -6%, VREX -5%, PIXY -5%, WDC -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: PTON SNAP AMD EA FL MTCH WDC EAT (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: US Futures Slip With Fed Rate Decision On Horizon. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: National Archives Releases Record Tied to Trump Classified Documents. (Bloomberg)
  • The US may provide Ukraine with longer-range ammunition. (Bloomberg)
  • US Mortgage Applications drop the most in a month. (Bloomberg)
  • Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haly to announce she is running for president on February 15th. (Fox News)
  • CNBC Interview of the Morning: Cathie Wood the CEO of Ark Innovation (ARKK) was interviewed after a strong January. (CNBC)
  • Wall Street is making the same Fed bet that’s burned it repeatedly. (Bloomberg)
  • Here’s everything the Fed is expected to do today. (CNBC)
  • Peloton (PTON) losses narrow as subscription revenues outpaces equipment sales. (CNBC)
  • Covid Update sees a nice two-week drop in cases and hospitalizations. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

  • Back to 100% from 77%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President convenes a meeting of his Competition Council to receive an update on progress his Administration has made to increase competition in the American economy and lower prices for the American people, 1:15 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:00 p.m. EST
    • The President hosts Speaker McCarthy for a meeting at the White House to discuss a range of issues, 3:15 p.m. EST
    • The President hosts an official transition event to thank Chief of Staff Ron Klain for his tireless work and officially welcome Jeff Zients back to the White House in this role, 5:00 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
    • Mortgage Applications Jan 27: -9.0% (prev 7.0%) – US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate Jan 27: 6.19% (prev 6.20%)
    • Composite: -9%, Purchase: -10.3%, ReFi: -7.1%
  • January ADP Payroll Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 170,000 from 235,000.
  • PMI Mfg Final 9:45 a.m. EST
  • December Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0% from 0.2%.
  • January ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 48% from 48.4%.
  • JOLTS 10:00 a.m. EST
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • OPEC+ Committee Meeting happens but do not have a specific time yet. Watch Twitter for a time.
  • The latest FOMC Decision is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST with a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • FOMC Announcement 2:00 p.m. EST
  • Fed Chair Press Conference 2:30 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Bernhard Capital-Backed Atlas Technical Consultants, Inc. (ATCX) to Be Acquired in a Transaction Valued at $1.05 billion.
  • Biosynex to acquire Chembio (CEMI) for 45c per share.
  • Ingersoll Rand (IR) Acquires Paragon Tank Truck.
  • Qualtrics (XM) indicated higher after Silver Lake amends 13D; intends to submit proposal that could result in acquisition of outstanding stock.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Janney West Coast CEO Forum 2023 (02/01/23-02/03/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Credit Suisse 2023 Latin America Investment Conference 2023 (01/31/23-02/01/23)
        • SVB Securities Global Biopharma Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: