CAPIS Morning Note – 01/30/23: S&P 500 Gives Up -1.00% of its 2.47% Gain Last Week In The Pre-Market. FOMC on Wednesday.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.25% at 4070.56 from  Thursday by 1.10% at 4060.43.  The overnight high of 4086 was hit at 6:15 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4040 at 6:35 a.m. EST, a range of ~46 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini)…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.25% at 4070.56 from  Thursday by 1.10% at 4060.43.  The overnight high of 4086 was hit at 6:15 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4040 at 6:35 a.m. EST, a range of ~46 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -40 points which is -0.98%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

    

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Crown PropTech Acquisitions (CPTK) to Hold Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders to Obtain an Extension of the Deadline to Complete an Initial Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CBAY: Announces Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants, Including Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • CNEY: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Securities. (Aegis bookmanager)
    • CYTH: Filed Form S-1.. 5,217,392 Shares of Common Stock.
    • IONM: Filed Form S-1 Common Stock Offering.
    • PGEN: Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • PLRX: Announces Closing of Upsized Public Offering and Full Exercise of the Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ALTI: Files for 121,551,230 share common stock offering by selling shareholders, relates to warrants.
    • DNA: Files for 7,279,426 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • MLEC: Filed Form F-1.. 11,110,000 ordinary shares underlying warrants and 35,865,887 ordinary shares Offered by Selling Security holders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • IKT: Closing of $10 Million Concurrent Registered Direct Offering and Private Placement Priced At a Premium to Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
    • VZLA: Upsizes private placement financing to $39 million.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • MFIN: Filed to withdraw Registration Statement on Form S-3.
    • NEWT: Files for $500 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • RVLP: Filed Form S-3. $200 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • VECT: Files for $350 million mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • WTI: Announces Closing of $275 Million Senior Second Lien Notes Offering.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: EHTH 42.8%, TSLA 34.7%, ATRA 34.2%, GLT 31.9%, QRTEA 31.8%, GLYC 30.9%, LRN 28.4%, IOVA 28.4%, TWOU 27.4%, TREE 24.7%, SHOP 23.8%, NTLA 22.3%, ALLO 21.8%, DOMO 21.5%, CVNA 21.1%, RYAM 20.4%, EDIT 20.1%.
    • Trading Down: BBBY -24.9%, SIEN -21.8%, VAPO -21.5%, PLXS -16.9%, OPK -15.8%, SQQQ -14.9%, TRMK -13.8%, TUSK -12.2%, CONN -11.8%, GPOR -11.6%, NINE -11.4%, FIBK -11.3%, NBTB -10.8%, MAG -10.7%, NR -10.3%, HZO -10.3%, CALX -9.8%, KRNY -9.7%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • TSLA: Musk under SEC probe connected with Autopilot claims.  (Bloomberg)
    • Phil Spencer Interview: Xbox (MSFT) Was ‘Too Light on Games’ in 2022, But a Big 2023 Could Await. (IGN)
    • Boeing (BA) awarded a $2.26 billion modification to a previously awarded US Air Force contract.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week: MMM, CRM, TSLA, NSX, CVX, AAL, INTC  (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: Creeping Layoffs (NYT)
    • Short Sellers Feel the Pain in Stock Market’s 2023 Rally. (WSJ)
    • Netherlands and Japan Said to Join U.S. in Curbing Chip Technology Sent to China. (NYTimes)
    • Why Lyft (LYFT) Is Headed for Its Own Recession. (WSJ)

    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: BABA, JD, YUMC, DE, AMAT, CRM, SHW, BALL, SYY, GEHC, AVTR, DFIN, BX, EEFT, DLTR, FTV, NXPI, MSFT, AMZN, ORCL of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Color Star (ADD) regains compliance with Nasdaq minimum bid price.
    • Allegiant (ALGT) Announces The Resignation Of Scott Sheldon President And Chief Operating Officer.
    • DarioHealth (DRIO) terminates employment of COO Dror Bacher.
    • Destination XL Group (DXLG) names Dara Pauker Chief Operating Officer.
    • DIRTT (DRTT) announces departure of Chief Revenue Officer.
    • Fluent (FLNT) CFO Sugandha Khandelwal gave notice of her resignation.
    • Mega Matrix Corp. Announces Ticker Symbol Change from MTMT to MPU.
    • Mitek Systems (MITK) names Scott Carter as Executive Chairperson.
    • MINISO Group (MNSO) Announces CFO resigns and Board Changes.
    • PINTEC (PT) Announces Changes to Management and Board of Directors.
    • ReneSola (SOL) announces rebranding and changes name to Emeren; stock symbol will remain as SOL.
    • Sesen Bio (SESN) Receives NASDAQ Delisting Notice.
    • Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Unilever PLC (UL) appoints Hein Schumacher as new CEO, replacing Alan Jope.
    • Versus Systems (VS) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Wintrust (WTFC) To Appoint Timothy S. Crane as Chief Executive Officer
    • Whirlpool (WHR) President and Chief Operating Officer Joseph T. Liotine will transition to an advisory role.
    • Xpeng (XPEV) Appoints Fengying Wang as President.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) Increases Unit Repurchase Program to $100.0 Million. (see Dividends too)
    • CACI Announces $250 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase Agreement.
    • First Business Bank (FBIZ) Announces $5 Million Buyback Program. (see Dividends too)
    • FNCB Bancorp, Inc. (FNCB) Authorization of Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Northrim BanCorp, Inc. (NRIM) Expands Stock Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Alliance Resource (ARLP) increases its quarterly distribution by 40% to $0.70 per unit.
    • Cincinnati Financial (CINF) to increase quarterly dividend 9% to $0.75 per share.
    • First Business Bank (FBIZ) Announces 15% Increase in Quarterly Common Stock Dividend.
    • NRG Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.3775.
    • Sorrento (SRNE) Issues “FAQ” Regarding the Dividend of Scilex Holding Company Common Stock.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -36, Dow Jones -201,  NASDAQ -138, and Russell 2000 -17. (as of 7:57 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are lower ex the Nikkei.  Europe markets are trading lower ex the FTSE. VIX Futures are at 19.77 from 19.95 yesterday.  Gold lower, Silver higher and Copper lower.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.553% from 3.552%  Friday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $23,113 from $22,985 Friday, lower by -2.77%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials, Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, and Technology Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Real Estate, and Financial  of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials,  Basic Materials, Energy, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, and Technology of note.

U.S. stocks rose Friday and notched strong weekly gains, boosted by hopes that inflation is moderating.  The S&P 500 rose 10.13 points, or 0.2%, to 4070.56. The Nasdaq Composite added 109.30 points, or 0.9%, to 11621.71. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 28.67 points, or 0.1%, to 33978.08.  All three major U.S. indexes posted gains for the week. The S&P 500 added 2.5%, while the Dow gained 1.8%. The Nasdaq jumped 4.3%, notching a fourth week of wins that has driven it higher by 11%, the largest such gain since August. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: None of note.

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: GEHC +0.25, PHG +0.23, SOFI +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: BEN of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: GEHC of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SOFI, PRPL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SCLX +9%, EOLS +8%, ARLP +7%, PHG +6%, MLEC +6%, SRNE +6% of note.
  • Gap Down: MNSO -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.   sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: CL, KSS, COIN, CRM, TSLA, JWN, M, BOOT, INTC (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • What to Know For This Week – Fed, Jobs Data, Apple Earnings. (Yahoo Finance)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Morgan Stanley Says Don’t Buy The Rally As Fed Looms. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  Adani Tries To Calm Investors With 413 Page Hindenburg Rebuttal. (Bloomberg)
  • Turkey President Erdogan says will accept Finland into NATO but not Sweden. (CNBC)
  • House Speaker McCarthy to meet with President Biden on Wednesday. Cuts to Social Security and Medicare are off table and U.S. will not default on debt. (CBS News)
  • Tik Tok CEO to testify before Congress on March 23rd about privacy and kids’ access. (Bloomberg)
  • Philips (PHG) cuts 6,000 jobs to improve profitability. (CNBC)
  • Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) sees empty shelves and outdated merchandise. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score hits 100%.  All indexes are above short and long term moving averages.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President departs New Castle, Delaware en route Baltimore, Maryland, 12:50 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Baltimore, Maryland, 1:25 p.m. EST
    • The President discusses how Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding will replace the 150-year old Baltimore and Potomac Tunnel; The Secretary of Transportation attends, 2:45 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Baltimore, Maryland en route the White House, 3:45 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 4:05 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: With the FOMC announcement coming we do have a Fed blackout period set for January 21 until Feb 2.

M&A Activity:

  • Timkento (TKR) acquire Nadella Group from ICG plc.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • JMP Securities C-Suite Series TIGIT Landscape Overview 2023.
    • William Blair Biotech Private Company Conference
  • Company Meetings: DTRT
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: EOLS, MTNB, VERA
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: